This Is Why Books Win And How You Can Win Tonight Too.

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Dogfather
Joined
Nov 22, 2006
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Cleveland Pitcher:
The pitcher's home ERA is 6.52.
The pitcher's last three games ERA is 7.53
Hitters are batting .362 against him.
His team is 7 games under .500, at home they are one game over .500
Last year he was 1-6 with a 6.42 ERA.
He is Jeremy Sowers.

THE LINE TONIGHT IS 167/157.

San Francisco Pitcher:
His road ERA is 5.25. His night ERA is 4.88.
His last four games ERA is 7.83. (not good)
Right handed batters are hitting .339, left handed are hitting .274.
His team is 11 games under 500, on the road they are one game under .500.
His team is 3-4 in his 7 road starts.
He is Barry Zito.

These are just some of the stats to help you decide who to bet on. Who do you think is favored? Do you LAY 167 or TAKE 157.

At CaribSports there are 2742 bets on this game. Why are 89% of the bets on one team and just 11% are on the other team.

Would you say BECAUSE NEITHER PITCHER IS WORTH LAYING -167 and the dog is the play.

WRONG. ALL THE PLAYS ARE ON CLEVELAND AT -167 AND NO ONE WANTS ZITO. I'M TRYING TO TELL EVERYONE THAT LAYING -167 ON
JEREMY SOWERS and his high ERA is why books make money. Even with Zito, the Giants should be around pick um. WHY? Because Zito away from AT&T is much better than at home.

DON'T LAY 167 ON A BAD PITCHER. EITHER TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE GIFT LINE, WHO REMEMBER ARE 3-4 IN ZITO'S 7 ROAD STARTS, OR JUST PASS.

I'm in a hurry and I know I could have posted more stats but these are the main ones. All I'm doing is trying to warn you that going against Zito, laying all that juice on Sowers, is why Books make money and most players don't.

One last stat which some of you might not realize is so different. Giants Road Batting Average is .270 while Cleveland's Home Batting Average is .249. Wouldn't you have thought it's the other way, with Cleveland having the .270 and S.F. the .249.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
Joined
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We're using the SANFRAN +1.5 (currently -135)

Giants a tasty 27-6 in their past 33 road games when graded at +1.5
 

"My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive"
Joined
Sep 6, 2005
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Fwiw

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%, terrible power team - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season.
(50-20 since 1997.) (71.4%, +28.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1, -0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1, +6.5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5, +12.1 units).
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

RX Member
Joined
Oct 8, 2005
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Who the hell would take the Indians in tihs situation?? It's either the Giants like you mentioned or pass on a shitty game like this...GL Barman
 

Member
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Excellent points, sir!! Very good input! The Tribe is hitting something like .190 against lefties the last 10 games. Almost like the Over but less hitting than pitching!! Best of luck to you, ATLSLIM
 

"My Other Vehicle Is a Locomotive"
Joined
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I put a little something on SF RL, thanks for the push in the right direction.
 

Dogfather
Joined
Nov 22, 2006
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Thanks all for the extra input. The info some of you added, made my Giant's play even better. Hope that helped put more of you on them. I didn't know SF had either won or lost by just one run 27 of their past 33 road games. Make that 28 of 34 now. Don't know if any of you heard this during the game, but the Giant's have the highest Batting Average in the National League for the month of June so far. Batting .280.

It's still hard to believe so many laid the big juice on Cleveland. Big Bookie had a lot of money on Cleveland too. But, be careful with Zito his next start at home. Too soon to tell how he will react to the fans booing, if he has a bad start.
 

erv

Armanti Edwards for Heisman
Joined
Nov 17, 2007
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sandman thanks for pointing this winner out
 

Member
Joined
May 5, 2006
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so many great forums to read, so little time.
Sorry, missed it.
Congrats & thanks.
 

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