[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
BY NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MILWAUKEE BREWERS STAYING UNDER THE RADAR[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]One of the best ways to beat the line over time is to find teams who are underrated by oddsmakers and the general public, then just back them until the line catches up. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Typically, this WON'T work with marquee teams who are in the national spotlight. If the Yankees or Red Sox get hot, the prices get exorbitant very quickly. That's true in football too. If Notre Dame gets hot (hard to imagine now, but it usually happens right when a new coach comes over), there's not much use in betting them because the lines get so high. Obscure teams can string together wins without garnering much attention. That's who you should be looking for.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Milwaukee Brewers have been on that sort of stretch for several weeks now. They hit their low point with a weekend series at Boston. They got swept, and newly re-signed Ryan Braun lit into the team for a lack of effort. He wanted to play for a winner, and he felt his teammates had quit in that series. They didn't believe they could beat Boston, so they didn't even try. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Every since then, the Brewers have been mowing people down:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2-1 in a road series against divisional rival Pittsburgh
2-2 in a road series at Washington before injuries had set in for the Nats
2-1 in a home series vs. Atlanta
3-0 in a home series sweep against divisional rival Houston
3-0 in a home series sweep against overrated Arizona[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let me stop there. That's a solid 4-3 road record, followed by an 8-1 homestand. Something like that should get noticed! Milwaukee was 12-4 over 16 games, and was posting dominant results. I'll admit the lines made a minor adjustment. But, it's not like Milwaukee was being treated like a top team. They went from being seen as mediocre to roughly .500 caliber. The lines didn't adjust enough.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continuing on:
1-2 in a road series at Colorado
2-1 in a road series at Houston[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yes, the rampage slowed down. But, playing .500 ball on the road isn't a negative! Look through the standings in your morning newspaper. Hardly anyone is playing .500 ball or better on the road in the majors this year. This wasn't the end of the hot streak. It was a normal road trip for a team playing pretty well. The 3-3 road trip brought the team's record to 15-7 since the end of the Boston series...and since the players got on the same page about priorities. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]1-2 in a home series with Minnesota
3-0 in a home series with Toronto
2-1 in a home series with Baltimore[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Brewers stubbed their toe when Interleague play resumed against Minnesota. But, a sweep against slumping Toronto righted the ship. Then the Brewers won the next series as well. That was a 6-3 homestand...on the heels of a 3-3 road trip...on the heels of an 8-1 home stand. Since Boston, the team had posted a 21-10 record. That was BIG NEWS in the National League because so many teams were struggling in IL play. Milwaukee was picking up a lot of ground because they were surging forward while everyone else was taking a step backward. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A team with a 21-10 record is playing at a "break even" level for a -210 favorite on the baseball moneylines. Obviously Milwaukee wasn't being priced that high. They weren't being priced anywhere near that high.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This past Monday Night, the winning continued with a 4-1 snoozer in Atlanta. Ben Sheets, who has been lights out during this stretch, hurled a complete game. Milwaukee was a cheap favorite considering how hot they'd been, the fact that they were throwing their ace, and the bonus that Chipper Jones isn't at 100% for Atlanta. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tuesday Night, another win. The Brewers were actually an underdog to a rookie pitcher. Wise Guys were steaming Atlanta! The line went from near pick-em at the opener up to -135 or -140 for the home team. Talk about under the radar! The hottest team in the National League was an underdog to a rookie pitcher. Milwaukee took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, and held on for a 4-3 victory. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Milwaukee did drop Wednesday's afternoon game 4-2. You can't win them all on the road. That might just discourage the public from backing them when nothing out of the ordinary happened. The Brewers now stand at 23-11 since the Boston series ended. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can they keep this going? I don't expect them to keep winning an astounding two-thirds of their games from this point out. They did manage to miss the Cubs and Cardinals during this schedule stretch...and their IL slate wasn't exactly a murderer's row. They got to play Minnesota, Toronto, and Baltimore just as things were clicking. I do think the Brewers are currently very underrated by the betting market. The public just won't think of these guys as winners.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's remember:[/FONT]
BY NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MILWAUKEE BREWERS STAYING UNDER THE RADAR[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]One of the best ways to beat the line over time is to find teams who are underrated by oddsmakers and the general public, then just back them until the line catches up. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Typically, this WON'T work with marquee teams who are in the national spotlight. If the Yankees or Red Sox get hot, the prices get exorbitant very quickly. That's true in football too. If Notre Dame gets hot (hard to imagine now, but it usually happens right when a new coach comes over), there's not much use in betting them because the lines get so high. Obscure teams can string together wins without garnering much attention. That's who you should be looking for.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Milwaukee Brewers have been on that sort of stretch for several weeks now. They hit their low point with a weekend series at Boston. They got swept, and newly re-signed Ryan Braun lit into the team for a lack of effort. He wanted to play for a winner, and he felt his teammates had quit in that series. They didn't believe they could beat Boston, so they didn't even try. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Every since then, the Brewers have been mowing people down:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2-1 in a road series against divisional rival Pittsburgh
2-2 in a road series at Washington before injuries had set in for the Nats
2-1 in a home series vs. Atlanta
3-0 in a home series sweep against divisional rival Houston
3-0 in a home series sweep against overrated Arizona[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let me stop there. That's a solid 4-3 road record, followed by an 8-1 homestand. Something like that should get noticed! Milwaukee was 12-4 over 16 games, and was posting dominant results. I'll admit the lines made a minor adjustment. But, it's not like Milwaukee was being treated like a top team. They went from being seen as mediocre to roughly .500 caliber. The lines didn't adjust enough.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continuing on:
1-2 in a road series at Colorado
2-1 in a road series at Houston[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yes, the rampage slowed down. But, playing .500 ball on the road isn't a negative! Look through the standings in your morning newspaper. Hardly anyone is playing .500 ball or better on the road in the majors this year. This wasn't the end of the hot streak. It was a normal road trip for a team playing pretty well. The 3-3 road trip brought the team's record to 15-7 since the end of the Boston series...and since the players got on the same page about priorities. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]1-2 in a home series with Minnesota
3-0 in a home series with Toronto
2-1 in a home series with Baltimore[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Brewers stubbed their toe when Interleague play resumed against Minnesota. But, a sweep against slumping Toronto righted the ship. Then the Brewers won the next series as well. That was a 6-3 homestand...on the heels of a 3-3 road trip...on the heels of an 8-1 home stand. Since Boston, the team had posted a 21-10 record. That was BIG NEWS in the National League because so many teams were struggling in IL play. Milwaukee was picking up a lot of ground because they were surging forward while everyone else was taking a step backward. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]A team with a 21-10 record is playing at a "break even" level for a -210 favorite on the baseball moneylines. Obviously Milwaukee wasn't being priced that high. They weren't being priced anywhere near that high.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This past Monday Night, the winning continued with a 4-1 snoozer in Atlanta. Ben Sheets, who has been lights out during this stretch, hurled a complete game. Milwaukee was a cheap favorite considering how hot they'd been, the fact that they were throwing their ace, and the bonus that Chipper Jones isn't at 100% for Atlanta. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tuesday Night, another win. The Brewers were actually an underdog to a rookie pitcher. Wise Guys were steaming Atlanta! The line went from near pick-em at the opener up to -135 or -140 for the home team. Talk about under the radar! The hottest team in the National League was an underdog to a rookie pitcher. Milwaukee took a 4-1 lead into the ninth, and held on for a 4-3 victory. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Milwaukee did drop Wednesday's afternoon game 4-2. You can't win them all on the road. That might just discourage the public from backing them when nothing out of the ordinary happened. The Brewers now stand at 23-11 since the Boston series ended. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Can they keep this going? I don't expect them to keep winning an astounding two-thirds of their games from this point out. They did manage to miss the Cubs and Cardinals during this schedule stretch...and their IL slate wasn't exactly a murderer's row. They got to play Minnesota, Toronto, and Baltimore just as things were clicking. I do think the Brewers are currently very underrated by the betting market. The public just won't think of these guys as winners.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's remember:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The starting rotation is healthy.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Eric Gagne is no longer the relief ace, and he was blowing games left and right early in the season. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is a home run based offense, and the weather finally warmed up. Note that Milwaukee has a retractable roof that closes in cool or bad weather. Visibility is poor inside when that happens. It's no coincidence in my view that the team started winning most of its home games when the roof was opened. The sluggers could see the ball and pound it. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Those are three important keys. If Sheets stays healthy...and Gagne stays in hiding...and the weather stays warm...there's no reason Milwaukee won't keep offering value to baseball bettors in Las Vegas and Reno. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. The lines will move up, the team will calm down, and the value will be gone. But, there are still 29 other teams playing ball![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]At some point, an equilibrium will be reached. The lines will move up, the team will calm down, and the value will be gone. But, there are still 29 other teams playing ball![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Try to find other teams like Milwaukee who are posting solid records that nobody is paying attention to. This is more likely to happen in the Central and West divisions because the mainstream media focuses on the East. Milwaukee isn't the only team like this right now. Other situations will develop as the year progresses.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Come at it from the other direction, and try to find teams who are posting poor records that nobody is paying attention to. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a very poor record since April...yet the betting markets are treating them with respect. Other teams have shown a similar tendency. It's your job to find these teams and take advantage. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When the markets are out of synch with a team, you can literally take advantage for up to a month! Milwaukee's been posting good results for more than a month now. And, looking for something like that after a team meeting is something handicappers should be doing anyway. Braun's explosion made headlines. Those headlines triggered a winning streak. Why weren't you taking advantage?[/FONT]
