Never bet these seven pitchers

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Oliver Perez (Mets) – The king of all or nothing. He’s capable of throwing a no-hitter. He’s just as capable of not retiring a batter.

Tim Wakefield (Red Sox) – This guy has been bedeviling me since he was with the Pirates. I paid $16 for him at my 1996 fantasy baseball auction and was rewarded with a 5.15 ERA in 211 2/3 innings. Not only did he destroy my team ERA, but he killed my WHIP by surrendering 328 combined hits and walks.

I haven’t touched Wakefield since, so of course the guy is good now. He’s still a 41-year-old knuckelballer, though, which means randomness. He gave up eight earned runs at Oakland on May 23. Following that he’s yielded only 10 earned runs in his last five starts.

Kyle Kendrick (Phillies) – I’ve never liked him. He may be the luckiest pitcher in the Majors given the great run support Philadelphia has given him. Naturally he loses for only the second time in his last 12 starts when I finally decide to play on him.

Kendrick has a 5.06 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Yet, the Phillies are 11-4 in his starts. The Phillies have averaged 6.7 runs in Kendrick’s last 23 starts going back to last year.

Kyle Davies (Royals) – Remind me to never bet a Davies’ game to go under the total like I did this past Sunday, even if it’s against the Giants. There only were 21 runs scored. I considered Davies one of the worst pitchers and was surprised to see him resurface in the big leagues late last month.

But until that Giants game, where he gave up five runs on six hits and two walks while failing to reach the second inning, Davies had allowed just one earned run in each of his previous four starts. A lot of pitchers can get lucky once, but Davies did it four straight times.

Brian Moehler (Astros) – My God the stiff won again on Tuesday with another well-pitched effort. The guy came into this season with a 20-37 record during the past seven years, having pitched for four different clubs. Some of his ERA’s during this span were 7.90, 6.51 and 6.02.

This year Moehler has held foes to three or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts. Fading Moehler while playing the over has been a disastrous approach. The under is 7-1-1 during Moehler’s past nine appearances.

Seth McClung (Brewers) - Here’s another journeyman type that has risen from the discard pail to actually solidify a starting spot by pitching well. When the Brewers brought him up last month, Milwaukee manager Ned Yost said something like we’ll give him a shot and see what happens. It wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement.

Not that McClung was worthy of inspiring much confidence. He had two of the worst years ever in 2005 and 2006 pitching for Tampa Bay. McClung pitched 109 1/3 innings in 2005. He gave up 106 hits, 62 walks and 20 homers. His ERA was 6.59.

McClung was just as consistently bad in 2006, pitching 103 innings and surrendering 120 hits, 14 homers, and having a 59-to-68 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA was 6.29.

This is a pitcher you want to fade, right? All McClung has done in his last three starts is yield five earned runs in 18 innings with a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies) – De La Rosa finally started living up to my opinion of him as the worst starting pitcher in the Majors, by pitching poorly Tuesday in a loss to the Royals. Prior to that game, though, De La Rosa had given up three earned runs in his last two starts versus the Indians and White Sox, with an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.





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Nice effort into the writeups. Subconsciously, I know I have a number of names where I say to myself, "this pitcher is unpredictable" or "oh, that shaky pitcher is playing against an unpredictable hitting team" so I pass on those games even if the lines didn't seem to jive or that there seemed to be value for one side. I'll have to see what other pitchers come to mind, probably just need to see their name & recent stats.

From your list, I generally avoid Wakefield completely anyway. But Ol. Perez, McClung (especially in '05 and '06; fading him was $$), and De La Rosa are two names that I do unconsciously fade.

* CalvinTy
 

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I like Mcclung this year, he's been solid. De la Rosa has a lot of upside also. I agree with the others though.

Just adding few more to the list:

Mark Hendrickson
Randy Johnson
Adam Eaton
Paul Maholm
Andy Sonnanstine
 

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Just copied it from covers.

Phillies seem to win every start by Kendrick so I don't know why you wouldn't bet on him.
 

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I agree on Marquis as well. Not just because of today, but being a lifelong Cardinal fan, I have seen him have many, many shitty outings. He would drive LaRussa and Dave Duncan nuts with his inconsistency.

Others I agree with: Randy Johnson
Mark Hendrickson
Mark Mulder (hate to say it, but he is coming off the DL soon and will likely be bad)
Shawn Chacon (although he may never start again)
Bronson Arroyo (can be good at times, but scary bet)
Carlos Silva
Kyle Kendrick
 

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I can't take credit for this list, I got it from covers.
Interesting read.
 

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Miguel Batista
John Garland
Nate Robertson
Paul Byrd
Livan Hernandez
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
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strange to see maholm on the list...can't be much easier to bet than he is this season

bet ON at home ... you'd be 7-2
bet AGAINST on the road ... you'd be 4-2

he's at home tonight
 

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I like Mcclung this year, he's been solid. De la Rosa has a lot of upside also. I agree with the others though.

Just adding few more to the list:

Mark Hendrickson
Randy Johnson
Adam Eaton
Paul Maholm
Andy Sonnanstine

I gave up on Paul Maholm. I tried fading him and his 5+ ERA and was rewarded with a combined 2 runs from the teams I was backing....in 3 games! I couldnt believe it and still cant.
 

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I agree with some of those, however its all situatoinal...Two pitchers who are no way near as good as their records reflect are Jason Marquis and Ryan Dempster...Keep an eye on them.
 

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Tim Wakefield is a money making machine. Always take either the runline or the alternate runline when Wakefield is on the mound.
 

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Zito is 3-4 on the road. At +money you would make money. It's the 0-7 home record that is a killer.
Love barry Zito this year...bet against him guarunteed money.

Randy Johnson....his bi-polar disorder started his last season with the yanks(highly overated as of late)
 

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Profited from playing against R.Johnson and M.Batista and over...
Watch C-H Park fall apart also , I'm not convinced..
 

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