[FONT="]I’ve tracked every game for the last 15 days using RX opening odds to determine if the ML or the RL is the best bet. The RL seems to be the best selection when playing favorites. Here are the stats.
[/FONT] In 193 games the favorite won the game 109 times for 56%. If you bet the ML to win $100 on every one of these games you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $26,450 for a loss of $1460 for an ROI of –5.23%.
In the 109 games that the favorite won they also covered the RL in 81 games for 74%. If you risked the same amount as the ML bets on the RL you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $27,295.40 for a loss of $614.60 and an ROI of –2.2%.
If you risked a flat amount of $100 on all the RL bets (except if the RL was –110, then risk $110) you would have risked $19,420 with a return of $19,590 for an ROI of 0.88%.
[FONT="]By risking a flat amount on the RL you no longer are risking more on heavy favorites and every game has the same chance of success. The flat RL bets ROI is greater than the ML bets by 6.11%.
[/FONT] I also calculated the returns if you throw out all of the loses by the favorites to determine if the RL is a better bet just on games the favorite won.
ML bets on only the 109 games the favorite won had a risk of $15,650 (risking X to win $100) with a return of $26,550 for an ROI of 69.65%
RL bets risking the same amount as the ML bets had a risk of $15,650 with a return of $27,295.40 (profiting $745.40 more than the ML) for an ROI of 74.41%.
RL bets risking a flat $100 on every bet (except if the RL was at –105 or higher) had a risk of $10,965 with a return of $19590 for an ROI of 78.66%.
[FONT="]As you all can see if you flat bet the RL instead of risking X to win 1 unit on the ML the Return on Investment is always greater and the risk amount is always lower. [/FONT]
[/FONT] In 193 games the favorite won the game 109 times for 56%. If you bet the ML to win $100 on every one of these games you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $26,450 for a loss of $1460 for an ROI of –5.23%.
In the 109 games that the favorite won they also covered the RL in 81 games for 74%. If you risked the same amount as the ML bets on the RL you would have risked $27,910 and had a return of $27,295.40 for a loss of $614.60 and an ROI of –2.2%.
If you risked a flat amount of $100 on all the RL bets (except if the RL was –110, then risk $110) you would have risked $19,420 with a return of $19,590 for an ROI of 0.88%.
[FONT="]By risking a flat amount on the RL you no longer are risking more on heavy favorites and every game has the same chance of success. The flat RL bets ROI is greater than the ML bets by 6.11%.
[/FONT] I also calculated the returns if you throw out all of the loses by the favorites to determine if the RL is a better bet just on games the favorite won.
ML bets on only the 109 games the favorite won had a risk of $15,650 (risking X to win $100) with a return of $26,550 for an ROI of 69.65%
RL bets risking the same amount as the ML bets had a risk of $15,650 with a return of $27,295.40 (profiting $745.40 more than the ML) for an ROI of 74.41%.
RL bets risking a flat $100 on every bet (except if the RL was at –105 or higher) had a risk of $10,965 with a return of $19590 for an ROI of 78.66%.
[FONT="]As you all can see if you flat bet the RL instead of risking X to win 1 unit on the ML the Return on Investment is always greater and the risk amount is always lower. [/FONT]
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