This is going in a different direction after reading View The Future's thread on whether RL's are better than ML's. As I said in that thread, I would like to know whether alternate RL's are better. Thus, the underdog would need to win by 2 or more. I will break it down between home and away dogs and track this fro 6/27 until the All-Star break...(hopefully)...I will use lines from bookmaker at whatever time of day I happen to look at them.
6/27
All ARL's are -1.5
Away Teams
Ari +170
Chi +165
Cin +260
Col +180
Atl +180
StL +170
Mil +165
SF +215
Sea +205
NYM +195 (game 1)
Home Teams
Pit +280
Was +215
Hou +260
Tex +190
LAD +215
Today's average alternate RL is +205.
We will bet $100 to win whatever the line above on all games. If someone could please let me know the NYM/NYY alternate RL for the 2nd game and post it in here, I'd appreciate it. I won't be around later. I thank you in advance. Today (including the second game of the doubleheader) we will be laying $1600. I'll update later tonight or tomorrow with a w/l. If you guys notice mistakes, let me know and I'll fix them.
All ARL's are -1.5
Away Teams
Ari +170
Chi +165
Cin +260
Col +180
Atl +180
StL +170
Mil +165
SF +215
Sea +205
NYM +195 (game 1)
Home Teams
Pit +280
Was +215
Hou +260
Tex +190
LAD +215
Today's average alternate RL is +205.
We will bet $100 to win whatever the line above on all games. If someone could please let me know the NYM/NYY alternate RL for the 2nd game and post it in here, I'd appreciate it. I won't be around later. I thank you in advance. Today (including the second game of the doubleheader) we will be laying $1600. I'll update later tonight or tomorrow with a w/l. If you guys notice mistakes, let me know and I'll fix them.
6/27 results
Away Teams
Ari +170 loss
Chi +165 loss
Cin +260 loss
Col +180 loss
Atl +180 win
StL +170 loss
Mil +165 loss
SF +215 loss
Sea +205 win
NYM +195 (game 1) win
NYY +190 (game 2) win
Home Teams
Pit +280 loss
Was +215 win
Hou +260 loss
Tex +190 loss
LAD +215 win
Yesterday's record was 6-10. The total w/l was +180. ROI was 11.25%. Will post today's lines once they are up.
Away Teams
Ari +170 loss
Chi +165 loss
Cin +260 loss
Col +180 loss
Atl +180 win
StL +170 loss
Mil +165 loss
SF +215 loss
Sea +205 win
NYM +195 (game 1) win
NYY +190 (game 2) win
Home Teams
Pit +280 loss
Was +215 win
Hou +260 loss
Tex +190 loss
LAD +215 win
Yesterday's record was 6-10. The total w/l was +180. ROI was 11.25%. Will post today's lines once they are up.
6/28 Lines
Yesterday's Totals and Overall after 1 day.
Record: 6-10 W/L: +200 ROI: 12.5% (my math was wrong above at 9 AM)
Away Teams: 4-7; +70; 6.36%
Away
Cubs +185
NYY +190
Cin +175
Col +220
StL +185
Bal +155
Home Teams: 2-3; +130; 26%
Home
Fla +220
Tor +205
Hou +225
Pit +215
Min +185
Tex +210
Will post results later in the day or early tomorrow. All lines are alternate RLs from bookmaker, and I am using whatever price I see when I happen to look at them.
Yesterday's Totals and Overall after 1 day.
Record: 6-10 W/L: +200 ROI: 12.5% (my math was wrong above at 9 AM)
Away Teams: 4-7; +70; 6.36%
Away
Cubs +185
NYY +190
Cin +175
Col +220
StL +185
Bal +155
Home Teams: 2-3; +130; 26%
Home
Fla +220
Tor +205
Hou +225
Pit +215
Min +185
Tex +210
Will post results later in the day or early tomorrow. All lines are alternate RLs from bookmaker, and I am using whatever price I see when I happen to look at them.
6/28 Results
Here is yesterday's results. I think four of these dogs won, but only by one run. Thus, they are all losses, otherwise yesterday would've been ridiculous. Instead, we take a loss of $90.
Yesterday's Record: 5-10 W/L: -90 ROI: -6.0%
Overall Record: 11-20 W/L: +110 ROI: 3.54%
Away Teams: 8-12; +275; 13.75%
Away
Cubs +185 loss
NYY +190 loss
Cin +175 win
Col +220 loss
StL +185 win
Bal +155 win
SF +190 loss
Sea +190 win
LAA +170 loss
Home Teams: 3-8; -165; -15%
Home
Fla +220 loss
Tor +205 win
Hou +225 loss
Pit +215 loss
Min +185 loss
Tex +210 loss
I would expect the away teams to cover more for two reasons. One, they are always guaranteed nine innings worth of at bats, whereas the home team isn't. And two, home teams are favs a lot more than away teams. Therefore, we should have more away team plays. I'm also trying to track these teams coming off straight up losses the day before, and seeing how they do.
Here is yesterday's results. I think four of these dogs won, but only by one run. Thus, they are all losses, otherwise yesterday would've been ridiculous. Instead, we take a loss of $90.
Yesterday's Record: 5-10 W/L: -90 ROI: -6.0%
Overall Record: 11-20 W/L: +110 ROI: 3.54%
Away Teams: 8-12; +275; 13.75%
Away
Cubs +185 loss
NYY +190 loss
Cin +175 win
Col +220 loss
StL +185 win
Bal +155 win
SF +190 loss
Sea +190 win
LAA +170 loss
Home Teams: 3-8; -165; -15%
Home
Fla +220 loss
Tor +205 win
Hou +225 loss
Pit +215 loss
Min +185 loss
Tex +210 loss
I would expect the away teams to cover more for two reasons. One, they are always guaranteed nine innings worth of at bats, whereas the home team isn't. And two, home teams are favs a lot more than away teams. Therefore, we should have more away team plays. I'm also trying to track these teams coming off straight up losses the day before, and seeing how they do.
6/29 Lines
Today's lines...
Yesterday's Record: 5-10 W/L: -90 ROI: -6.0%
Overall Record: 11-20 W/L: +110 ROI: 3.54%
Away Teams: 8-12; +275; 13.75%
Away
Cubs +200
Atl +200
NYY +150
Cin +215
Col +220
StL +155
SF +200
Sea +215
Home Teams: 3-8; -165; -15%
Home
Fla +215
Hou +280
Was +215
Pit +210
Min +215
Tex +180
LAD +215
Today's lines...
Yesterday's Record: 5-10 W/L: -90 ROI: -6.0%
Overall Record: 11-20 W/L: +110 ROI: 3.54%
Away Teams: 8-12; +275; 13.75%
Away
Cubs +200
Atl +200
NYY +150
Cin +215
Col +220
StL +155
SF +200
Sea +215
Home Teams: 3-8; -165; -15%
Home
Fla +215
Hou +280
Was +215
Pit +210
Min +215
Tex +180
LAD +215
6/29 Results
Today's Record: 6-9 W/L: +280 ROI: 18.67%
Overall Record: 17-29 W/L: +390 ROI: 8.47%
Away Teams: 12-16; +660; 23.57%
Away
Cubs +200 loss
Atl +200 loss
NYY +150 loss
Cin +215 won
Col +220 loss
StL +155 won
SF +200 won
Sea +215 won
Home Teams: 5-13; -270; -15%
Home
Fla +215 loss
Hou +280 loss
Was +215 loss
Pit +210 loss
Min +215 won
Tex +180 won
LAD +215 loss
Today's Record: 6-9 W/L: +280 ROI: 18.67%
Overall Record: 17-29 W/L: +390 ROI: 8.47%
Away Teams: 12-16; +660; 23.57%
Away
Cubs +200 loss
Atl +200 loss
NYY +150 loss
Cin +215 won
Col +220 loss
StL +155 won
SF +200 won
Sea +215 won
Home Teams: 5-13; -270; -15%
Home
Fla +215 loss
Hou +280 loss
Was +215 loss
Pit +210 loss
Min +215 won
Tex +180 won
LAD +215 loss
Had a great weekend after reading your post. Gave it some thought and decided I lay no more chalk from here on out. Took the Mets huge today on the RL. Took the Rangers at plus money and took the Sox ml tonight. All winners. Tony Stewart does not get fucked I have the biggest day of 2008. Anyway, thx, dont think I will ever lay the chalk again. Really no reason to.
6/30 Lines
Overall Record: 17-29 W/L: +390 ROI: 8.47%
Away Teams: 12-16; +660; 23.57%
Away
NYM +165
Pit +200
Was +190
LAD +200
SDG +180
Mil +160
Tex +235
Bos +190
Cle +210
Oak +180
Home Teams: 5-13; -270; -15%
Home
SF +220
Bal +185
Min +205
Sea +280
Away teams seem to be paying off, which is kind of what I expected. A lot of the home team losses are because the home team wins only by 1 run. Unfortunately, that's a loss. A lot of the away teams look awfully good tonight too, but its too early to start playing them after only three days. Hopefully, after the all-star break I'll have a more definitive grasp on specific teams to play on or against.
Overall Record: 17-29 W/L: +390 ROI: 8.47%
Away Teams: 12-16; +660; 23.57%
Away
NYM +165
Pit +200
Was +190
LAD +200
SDG +180
Mil +160
Tex +235
Bos +190
Cle +210
Oak +180
Home Teams: 5-13; -270; -15%
Home
SF +220
Bal +185
Min +205
Sea +280
Away teams seem to be paying off, which is kind of what I expected. A lot of the home team losses are because the home team wins only by 1 run. Unfortunately, that's a loss. A lot of the away teams look awfully good tonight too, but its too early to start playing them after only three days. Hopefully, after the all-star break I'll have a more definitive grasp on specific teams to play on or against.
Obviously teams that cannot score are worthless on the ARL, better off taking the straight odds. I always took the dog for a unit, and the ARL for .3 units. If the dog won by one, you still collect some money.
Teams I have had good luck with ARL's - White Sox, Cubs, Texas, Anaheim, Milwaukee
Bad teams laying ARL - Washington, SD, Seattle, LAD, Atlanta
Teams to watch laying ARL - Detroit, Mets, Arizona
6/30 Results
Yesterday's Record: 2-12; -840
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -450 ROI: -7.5%
Away Teams: 14-24; +220; 5.79%
Away
NYM +165 loss
Pit +200 loss
Was +190 loss
LAD +200 loss
SDG +180 win
Mil +160 loss
Tex +235 loss
Bos +190 loss
Cle +210 loss
Oak +180 win
Home Teams: 5-17; -670; -30.45%
Home
SF +220 loss
Bal +185 loss
Min +205 loss
Sea +280 loss
Yesterday's dogs were 3-11 straight up, and that doesn't bode well for alternate run lines, which went 2-12 yesterday. Big loss of -840 on the day. The home dogs keep losing, and I don't think they are going to pay off in the long run. The losses on them are piling up quickly. A better idea may be to look at all away teams at -1.5, whether they are the favorite or the dog. I am keeping all the lines for this 17 day study, including ML, RL, ARL and o/u. Hopefully I'll be able to get something out of it.
Yesterday's Record: 2-12; -840
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -450 ROI: -7.5%
Away Teams: 14-24; +220; 5.79%
Away
NYM +165 loss
Pit +200 loss
Was +190 loss
LAD +200 loss
SDG +180 win
Mil +160 loss
Tex +235 loss
Bos +190 loss
Cle +210 loss
Oak +180 win
Home Teams: 5-17; -670; -30.45%
Home
SF +220 loss
Bal +185 loss
Min +205 loss
Sea +280 loss
Yesterday's dogs were 3-11 straight up, and that doesn't bode well for alternate run lines, which went 2-12 yesterday. Big loss of -840 on the day. The home dogs keep losing, and I don't think they are going to pay off in the long run. The losses on them are piling up quickly. A better idea may be to look at all away teams at -1.5, whether they are the favorite or the dog. I am keeping all the lines for this 17 day study, including ML, RL, ARL and o/u. Hopefully I'll be able to get something out of it.
7/1 Lines
After yesterday's debacle of 2-12, hopefully some dogs bark tonight, and by 2 runs or more.
Yesterday's Record: 2-12; -840
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -450 ROI: -7.5%
Away Teams: 14-24; +220; 5.79%
Away
NYM +190
Pit +230
Phi +145
Was +185
LAD +180
SDG +210
Mil +160
Cubs +175
Tex +280
KC +170
Bos +160
Cle +180
Det +190
Home Teams: 5-17; -670; -30.45%
Home
Sea +210
LAA +215 (see caveat below)
Almost all away dogs today, yielding a lot of ARL plays. A couple lines are awfully low at only +145, as we are generally looking to get at least +180, or I don't really consider it a true ARL.
Lets take the Phi/Atl game for example...
ATL is the fav, barely at -116, however the Atl RL is -1.5 +170
Phi is the dog, at -104, however the Phi ARL is -1.5 +145
So, the question is, even though Phi is the dog, why is there RL 25 cents lower.
Same thing happens in the following games (bold team is the play): Mil/Ari, Cubs/SF, Bos/TB.
The Oak/LAA game is the opposite...
Oak is the favorite, but the "normal" RL is on LAA at -1.5 +215. Therefore, LAA is actually the play instead of Oak, as this is based on RL dogs. (I will score LAA as the play, as noted above in today's lines).
After yesterday's debacle of 2-12, hopefully some dogs bark tonight, and by 2 runs or more.
Yesterday's Record: 2-12; -840
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -450 ROI: -7.5%
Away Teams: 14-24; +220; 5.79%
Away
NYM +190
Pit +230
Phi +145
Was +185
LAD +180
SDG +210
Mil +160
Cubs +175
Tex +280
KC +170
Bos +160
Cle +180
Det +190
Home Teams: 5-17; -670; -30.45%
Home
Sea +210
LAA +215 (see caveat below)
Almost all away dogs today, yielding a lot of ARL plays. A couple lines are awfully low at only +145, as we are generally looking to get at least +180, or I don't really consider it a true ARL.
Lets take the Phi/Atl game for example...
ATL is the fav, barely at -116, however the Atl RL is -1.5 +170
Phi is the dog, at -104, however the Phi ARL is -1.5 +145
So, the question is, even though Phi is the dog, why is there RL 25 cents lower.
Same thing happens in the following games (bold team is the play): Mil/Ari, Cubs/SF, Bos/TB.
The Oak/LAA game is the opposite...
Oak is the favorite, but the "normal" RL is on LAA at -1.5 +215. Therefore, LAA is actually the play instead of Oak, as this is based on RL dogs. (I will score LAA as the play, as noted above in today's lines).
7/1 Results
Yesterday's Record: 5-10; -105
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -555 ROI: -9.25%
Away Teams: 18-33; +0; 0%
Away
NYM +190 win
Pit +230 loss
Phi +145 win
Was +185 win
LAD +180 loss
SDG +210 loss
Mil +160 win
Cubs +175 loss
Tex +280 loss
KC +170 loss
Bos +160 loss
Cle +180 loss
Det +190 loss
Home Teams: 6-18; -555; -23.125%
Home
Sea +210 loss
LAA +215 win
Another losing day. Maybe a small trend on a few teams so far. Those that don't score much are yielding a lot of 1 run games which are scored as losses. Teams coming off a loss however, where they are the dog for the second straight game seem to be doing pretty decent on the ARL. Will keep posting until the break.
Yesterday's Record: 5-10; -105
Overall Record: 19-41 W/L: -555 ROI: -9.25%
Away Teams: 18-33; +0; 0%
Away
NYM +190 win
Pit +230 loss
Phi +145 win
Was +185 win
LAD +180 loss
SDG +210 loss
Mil +160 win
Cubs +175 loss
Tex +280 loss
KC +170 loss
Bos +160 loss
Cle +180 loss
Det +190 loss
Home Teams: 6-18; -555; -23.125%
Home
Sea +210 loss
LAA +215 win
Another losing day. Maybe a small trend on a few teams so far. Those that don't score much are yielding a lot of 1 run games which are scored as losses. Teams coming off a loss however, where they are the dog for the second straight game seem to be doing pretty decent on the ARL. Will keep posting until the break.
