Three Things To Watch: Sunday

Arroyo needs to throw quality fastballs early in count

Special to ESPN.com



<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: June 29, 2008

• Comment
• Email
• Print

<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Arroyo

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Arroyo looking for damage control

Reds starter Bronson Arroyo must be looking forward to putting his last outing behind him as he will get the start today against the Indians. In just one inning of work on Tuesday, the 2006 All-Star surrendered 10 runs and retired just three of the 15 batters he faced. One thing Arroyo needs to do as he tries to recover from Tuesday's disaster is throw quality fastballs early in the count. His last outing was a microcosm of Arroyo's season in this regard. He threw 20 fastballs early in the count; 10 were strikes, four were put in play, and all four were hits. Here is a look at how this early fastball problem has been at the heart of Arroyo's sub par season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Arroyo's fastball in early counts (0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2006-2007</td> <td>2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average against</td> <td>.330</td> <td>.517</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slugging percentage against</td> <td>.573</td> <td>.883</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike percentage</td> <td>58.9</td> <td>52.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Once he has fallen behind with his fastball, Arroyo tends to rely on breaking pitches more than most pitchers. Over the last three seasons, he's thrown a curve or slider 47 percent of the time when behind in the count. Hitters have noticed his tendency, and are hitting Arroyo's breaking stuff hard: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Arroyo's in-zone curves/sliders (hitter's counts)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2006-2007</td> <td>2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average against</td> <td>.247</td> <td>.400</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Slugging percentage against</td> <td>.495</td> <td>.667</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Facing the Indians this afternoon, Arroyo can't afford to leave a fastball in the upper third of the strike zone. Opponents have hit .426 off his high heat with five home runs this season. Hot hitting shortstop Jhonny Peralta is 12-for-38 with a .632 slugging percentage against fastballs up in the zone. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Burnett

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Burnett struggling with off-speed stuff and stamina

When healthy, A.J. Burnett has been one of the best and most dominant pitchers in baseball over the last four seasons. His ERA hadn't risen over 4.00 during that span and he'd struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings coming into 2008. Things haven't gone according to plan for the righty this year as he enters Sunday's matchup against Atlanta with an ERA over 5.00. Burnett has found success in the past despite a somewhat suspect repertoire of off-speed pitches. In his first two years in Toronto, he tossed his slow stuff over the plate just 55 percent of the time, well below league average of 61 percent. He managed to stay afloat because the off-speed stuff that did find the strike zone was extremely effective, but a look at some key stats begins to show what has gone wrong in 2008. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Opponents vs. Burnett's off-speed pitches</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>2006</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout percentage of at-bats</td> <td>57.0</td> <td>52.9</td> <td>45.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss percentage of swings</td> <td>44.5</td> <td>49.0</td> <td>41.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average against</td> <td>.139</td> <td>.127</td> <td>.152</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Percentage of swings put in play</td> <td>25.8</td> <td>26.3</td> <td>33.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Perhaps because hitters have learned to simply lay off his slow stuff, Burnett has struggled to get them to swing at non-strikes in 2008 as well. He got opposing batters to chase an average of 35.6 percent of off-speed pitches outside the zone in 2006 and 2007, but that percentage has dropped to just 26.9 this year. Another factor in Burnett's decline is that he appears to be tiring late in games. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Burnett in innings 6-9</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2006</td> <td>2007</td> <td>2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike percentage of pitches</td> <td>57.0</td> <td>52.9</td> <td>45.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Walk percentage of plate appearances</td> <td>6.1</td> <td>8.2</td> <td>13.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average against</td> <td>.258</td> <td>.173</td> <td>.291</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Burnett has shown an ability to throw a lot of pitches throughout his career. He ranked among the league leaders in averaging over 106.4 pitches per outing in 2007, and he's just shy of 105 pitches per start this year. Has the heavy workload finally caught up with Burnett in 2008? He's coming off arguably his best game of the year -- an eight-inning, four-hit masterpiece against the Reds on June 24 -- and he'll need more starts like that to turn around his season. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Buehrle

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Buehrle will try to win southpaw battle in Chicago

As the first-place Chicago teams battle tonight on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, the focus will be on the two lefty starters. The Cubs' Sean Marshall will make his second -- and likely final -- start in place of the injured Carlos Zambrano, while Mark Buehrle will try to continue his hot pitching streak for the home White Sox. After beginning the season 2-6 in his first 12 outings, Buehrle has turned things around in a big way over his last four starts. The 29-year-old has pitched exactly eight innings in each game, and he is 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA in that span. Buehrle has allowed just five runs in 32 innings, and his 2008 ERA, which was 5.26 through May, is down to a respectable 4.04. Following his 6-1 win over the Dodgers on Tuesday, Buehrle said he has been lucky, as well as good, in recent starts. "I'm just making my pitches," he told reporters. "Even when I'm missing my spots, the hitters are popping them up or getting a single instead of a home run. I've always said there's a lot of luck involved." Buehrle has improved his luck by throwing more strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Buehrle -- First 12 starts vs. last four starts in 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>First 12 starts</td> <td>Last four starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average against</td> <td>.304</td> <td>.211</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.233</td> <td>.167</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Percentage of pitches in the zone</td> <td>47.7</td> <td>52.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Walk percentage of plate appearances</td> <td>7.3</td> <td>3.4</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Buehrle dominated lefty hitters in his last four outings, as they have only one single in 18 at-bats (.056 batting average). In his first 12 starts, left-handed batters hit .267. Recently, Buehrle has tossed a lot more pitches in the zone to lefties (57 percent in his last four starts) than in his first 12 starts of the year (44 percent). Opponents average against his fastball improved from .299 to .203, perhaps due to the luck Buehrle cited. Well-hit average against his heater has remained about the same all season.

Daily Notes for Sunday: M's-Padres in line for a pitchers'

By Adam Madison
ESPN.com
(Archive)

<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> June 28, 2008, 5:24 PM

• Comment
• Email
• Print

<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline --> Two pitchers are looking for their 10th win in Ben Sheets and Braden Looper, the latter facing the Royals, who have won six in a row and are 13-3 in interleague play. Sheets is coming off a one-run, seven-strikeout complete game performance against the Braves, and has won five straight decisions. Erik Bedard and Jake Peavy face off in San Diego in what should be a classic pitchers' duel, especially considering the two weak offenses in play.




Injury report
Out
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox (suspension)
Akinori Iwamura, 3B/2B, Rays (suspension)
Hideki Matsui, OF, Yankees (knee)

Day-to-day
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds (back)
Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves (shoulder)
Chone Figgins, 3B, Angels (knee)
Chipper Jones, 3B, Braves (quadriceps)
Alexei Ramirez, 2B/OF, White Sox (personal)

Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: The Orioles' offense has been on fire in June, ranking third in the league in OPS and fifth overall. Luke Scott has been one of baseball's hottest hitters, hitting .324 with six home runs and a .662 slugging percentage, and on the season he now has 11 home runs and an OPS north of .900 against righties. Teammate Aubrey Huff (.353 average and five home runs in June) also is tearing the cover off the ball, though he must deal with the lack of a DH through Sunday. … It should be a no-brainer, but make sure Ryan Ludwick (.223 average in June) is riding the bench, as he endures his first sustained slump of the season. Fortunately for the Cardinals, Troy Glaus has simultaneously heated up, amassing eight home runs this month to pace the team's offense. … David DeJesus is another streaking hitter, with four home runs and three steals and a 12-game hit streak. His OPS has increased from .743 to begin the month to a mark of .857 as of Friday.
Pitchers: Derek Lowe had a rough May, but in April and June combined he has a 3.00 ERA in 69 innings, and has three consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons. His quality start streak ended at six when he was knocked around by the White Sox on Tuesday, but even that outing wasn't a bad one (seven innings, eight K's, one walk). The Angels have struggled offensively, ranking 30th and 24th in OPS in May and June, respectively, so expect Lowe to recover from his last start and begin his quality start streak anew.

Waiver-wire pickups
Hitters: With four home runs and seven doubles in 61 June at-bats, Kelly Shoppach is showing a tremendous amount of power for a catcher. Shoppach is currently in a seven-game hitting streak, and with Victor Martinez still out another 4-6 weeks away from returning, Shoppach has long-term value. … The Diamondbacks have been mostly nonexistent on offense since April, but against lefty pitchers, they've still been a significant threat, especially Mark Reynolds (six home runs in 77 at-bats) and the recently returned Eric Byrnes, who has been a lefty-masher his entire career. … Russell Branyan hasn't homered in his last five games, but he still has 11 homers in just 80 at-bats this season, all of them versus righty pitching. Owned in just a third of leagues, Branyan has a nice matchup Sunday against Kevin Slowey, who has allowed 10 home runs in 63 2/3 innings and is allowing a .509 slugging percentage against left-handerd hitters. … Kevin Kouzmanoff has disappointed offensively again this season, but against southpaws he's legit. He's hitting .321 with three home runs in 84 at-bats against them this season, and .335 with 10 home runs in 242 career at-bats.
AP Photo/Mark Duncan
Don't fear the Reds on the schedule, especially given the way Aaron Laffey is pitching.


Pitchers: Aaron Laffey has four straight quality starts and nine out of 10 since May. On the season, Laffey is averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per start, which makes him one of the league's better young innings-eaters to this point, and he is a solid option against an unimpressive Reds offense. … The Blue Jays have the worst OPS in the majors against left-handers by more than 20 points. Jo-Jo Reyes has been a relatively solid pitcher anyway, but this matchup calls for at least a spot start. … Much of Jeremy Guthrie's success can be credited to the Orioles' vastly improved defense, which is tied for first in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 18th in that category last year. Guthrie's peripherals are actually down from last year's breakout, but thanks to interleague play, Guthrie gets one of the day's softest matchups as he faces the Nationals, who are dead last in team OPS. … Joe Blanton has had a significant home-away split this season, with his ERA being a full three runs lower at home than on the road. It's a trend that has been consistent his whole career; he's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher at McAfee Coliseum (3.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and a mediocre innings-eater with an ERA pushing five (4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) on the road. Knowing that, this matchup at home against a bottom-tier offense is definitely favorable. … Most pitchers with an ERA entering microscopic territories aren't struggling to find ownership in fantasy leagues, but there's Mark Buehrle, owned in just 29 percent of leagues despite a 1.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this month. The Cubs are the best-hitting team in the National League, though, so now would be an inopportune time to spot-start Buehrle. But he's still worth having on your roster right now.
Weather concerns
Weather concerns continue Sunday, with the Reds-Indians, Rockies-Tigers and Orioles-Nationals games all having a 40 percent chance of rain, and there's a 50-60 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms for the Yankees-Mets game. … The Rays-Pirates and Cubs-White Sox have a more moderate 30 percent chance of rain, although Chicago is expected to see rain throughout the day, so a wet field could come into play. … Braves-Blue Jays and and Brewers-Twins are weatherproof.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball and basketball analyst for ESPN.com.