Three Things To Watch: Tuesday

Loud bats in Philadelphia have grown quiet

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 1, 2008

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: TUESDAY

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Utley

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Philadelphia's power outage

The Phillies are in first place in the National League East, but Philly fans are anything but comfortable with their current situation. After sweeping the Braves on June 8, Philadelphia was a season-high 13 games over .500. Since then, the Phillies have lost six straight series and have five wins in 18 games. Philadelphia's dynamic offense has disappeared, as they've scored more than four runs in just five of 18 games (28 percent). In their first 65 contests, the Phillies' offense scored more than four runs 37 times (57 percent). Both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have struggled in June. Chase Utley

Utley was arguably the best hitter in baseball over the season's first two months. He blasted 21 home runs in 59 games and had a .320 batting average. His average has since dropped to .297, and he has hit just two home runs in his past 23 games. Utley recently endured an 0-for-24 stretch, and he is batting .196 in the 13 games since June 14 (compared to .317 in his first 69 games). Utley hit .385 with four home runs and three doubles against curveballs before June 14, but is hitless against them since. With runners in scoring position, Utley is 0-for-16 with six strikeouts over the past two weeks. Ryan Howard

Howard's 199 strikeouts last season established a new major league record, and he's already struck out 114 times in 2008. Although Howard has belted 20 home runs (14 off right-handers), he has looked lost against left-handed pitchers. He is hitting .181 against southpaws with 57 strikeouts in 127 at-bats. Against righties, Howard has hit .239 with 57 strikeouts in 184 at-bats. Since finishing off a sweep of the Braves June 8, Howard is 3-for-27 (.111) with 14 strikeouts against lefties. All three hits were singles off fastballs, as he is 0-for-10 against curveballs and sliders. He has missed on 52 percent of swings against lefties, much worse than his 39 percent miss rate (and .200 batting average) before June 8. Fortunately for the Phillies, they are done facing AL clubs. They finished a franchise-worst 4-11 in interleague play, and Tuesday they hope that a return to Atlanta, the site of their last series win, will bring life to their slumping bats. 2. Kershaw trying to find off-speed touch

Clayton Kershaw, 20, is still looking for his first win as he prepares to face the Astros on Tuesday. The hard-throwing lefty dominated high school opponents with his mid-90s fastball, but Dodgers coaches emphasized development of his off-speed stuff in the minor leagues. He's worked hard on a changeup to go along with his hammer curve. Kershaw's struggles have been tied to mixing speeds. When he relies too much on his mid-90s heater, opponents' batting averages soar. But he has kept hitters in check when he changes speeds on 30 to 35 percent of his pitches (league batting average against left-handed pitching is .261): <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Kershaw starts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Date</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Fastball pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>May 25</td> <td>.227</td> <td>65.7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>May 30</td> <td>.333</td> <td>79.5</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 4</td> <td>.278</td> <td>80.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 10</td> <td>.300</td> <td>79.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 15</td> <td>.154</td> <td>69.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>June 20</td> <td>.222</td> <td>69.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>June 26</td> <td>.375</td> <td>59.4</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Control has been a problem, as Kershaw has walked an average of six batters per nine innings since his first start. He's thrown 62 percent of fastballs and 60 percent of curves for strikes this season, about league average, but has gotten just 44 percent of changeups over for strikes, well below the 62 percent league average for lefties. When Kershaw misses with his change, he tends to miss badly. Hitters have chased only 17 percent of his changeups out of the zone, half the average chase rate. He's also predictably thrown 44 percent of curves in two-strike counts; they've been hit for a .364 average. The Astros will be ready for Kershaw's heat. Houston's .354 batting average against 92-plus mph left-handed fastballs is best in the league by a wide margin. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Teixeira

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Teixeira crushing fastballs and changeups early in the count

Atlanta slugger Mark Teixeira got off to his typical slow start in 2008. This year, however, was even slower than usual, as Teixeira had just seven homers through the end of May and then endured an 18-game streak in June in which he went deep just once. But he got back on track with a three-homer outburst on June 22. He's gone on to hit three more homers in the six games since, and is batting .429 with 11 RBI over his past seven games. Teixeira hits most of his home runs against fastballs and changeups. Dating back to 2003, his rookie season, he hit 58 percent of his homers in scouted games against fastballs. He's hit another 31 percent of his homers against changeups. Consistent with that trend, 14 of his 16 homers this year, and five of the six homers in his recent streak, came on at-bats ending on either a fastball or a change. When Teixeira is on, he's more selective and more effective early in the count. The table below compares his performance early in the year against his two most recent hot streaks: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Teixeira vs. fastballs and changeups in early counts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Aug. 2007</td> <td>June 22-29, 2008</td> <td>March-May, 2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.467</td> <td>.700</td> <td>.256</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.933</td> <td>2.300</td> <td>.436</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of swings</td> <td>29.1</td> <td>30.4</td> <td>34.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>16.7</td> <td>7.1</td> <td>12.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> When he's hot, Teixeira looks for a fastball or change early in the count. Over the past week, five of Teixeira's six home runs have come on either the first or second pitch, a tendency Kyle Kendrick and the Phillies would be wise to note Tuesday. Six of the 11 homers off Kendrick this season have come on 0-0 or 0-1 counts.

I haven't said thanks to you, BadCo, for those ESPN MLB articles. I do llike to read those. You may be safer to paste only the text (try to delete all links so that ESPN won't be scolding someone for copying and pasting a paid-subscription article, LOL).

I love my HOU play against LAD's Kershaw even more, thanks!

* CalvinTy

Daily Notes for Tuesday: Harden, Santana duel out West

By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> June 30, 2008, 11:45 AM

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Key division series highlight a full Tuesday slate as the Red Sox and Rays resume their battle for first place in the American League East while the Angels and A's collide in a matchup of West division leaders. Tampa Bay sends Matt Garza to the mound, fresh off his one-hitter versus the Marlins. He'll face streaking knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. The Angels and A's should provide a compelling pitching matchup as well, pitting Oakland ace Rich Harden against 2008 breakout performer Ervin Santana.








Start 'em, sit 'em
Greg Fiume/Getty Images
Luke Scott has eight homers in June, as many as Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder.


Hitters: Baltimore's Luke Scott is one of the American League's hottest hitters. He hit .333 BA/.384 OBP/.705 SLG with seven home runs in June and has multihit games in each of his past four starts. … Detroit's Ivan Rodriguez and New York's Jorge Posada might be behind the plate Tuesday, but neither has a good history with his opposing starter. Posada is just 1-for-10 versus Rangers starter Kevin Millwood, while Pudge has just one hit in 16 tries against the Twins' Scott Baker. … Jason Kubel's ownership in ESPN leagues is on an upward trend now that he's recovering from a slow start, but don't expect to see the lefty slugger in the Twins' lineup Tuesday. Kubel, who suffers the occasional benching versus lefties anyway, is 0-for-11 with five strikeouts against Tigers starter Nate Robertson. … Use only the absolute must-start hitters on both sides of the anticipated pitching duel between Rich Harden of the A's and the Angels' Ervin Santana. Harden has allowed one run in his past three starts combined, striking out 25 batters while walking just five. Santana, meanwhile, is 8-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 12 career outings against the A's. The Oakland roster has hit just .197 and slugged .236 against Santana. Bobby Crosby (1-for-17), Kurt Suzuki (0-for-9) and Mark Ellis (6-for-29) are frequent Santana victims. … Reds third baseman Edwin Encarnacion missed a few games with back spasms but went 2-for-3 with a home run in his return to the lineup Sunday. Encarnacion hit .288/.405/.606 in June and should be active in all formats Tuesday against oft-laboring Pirates lefty Zach Duke. … Randy Johnson simply owns Mike Cameron. The Brewers center fielder is 2-for-29 with 18 strikeouts versus Arizona's Tuesday starter. Pitchers: ESPN owners have shown good judgment in not overreacting to Rays starter Matt Garza, who is owned in less than 20 percent of leagues despite tossing a one-hitter in his last turn. The promising but inconsistent Garza shouldn't be trusted in shallow leagues against good offenses, such as the Red Sox's offense on Tuesday. … Houston left-hander Wandy Rodriguez is owned in barely half of ESPN leagues despite a 2.30 June ERA. In his most recent outing, Rodriguez struck out nine Rangers without issuing a walk in eight innings of one-run ball. … Dodgers rookie Clayton Kershaw is owned in nearly a third of ESPN leagues, but with his control struggles, there's really no reason to believe that he'll be an asset in mixed formats anytime soon. In the six starts since his solid debut, Kershaw has walked 21 batters in 27 innings while failing to complete the sixth frame even once. … Cardinals starter Todd Wellemeyer appears to have recovered from his elbow inflammation, as he shut out the Tigers for five innings in his return to the rotation last week. … Padres starter Josh Banks is owned in nearly a quarter of ESPN leagues thanks to some unsustainable early success. He shouldn't be used away from Petco Park, and certainly not in Coors Field on Tuesday. Aaron Cook also should be benched for all starts in Coors, where his career ERA is more than a half run higher than it is on the road.
Waiver-wire pickups

<table class="answerguys" align="right" border="0" width="350"><tbody><tr><td align="center"> </td></tr> <tr><td align="center">Insiders, have a question about your fantasy team? Get it answered by an ESPN expert!
Ask your question </td></tr></tbody></table> Hitters: With Yankees outfielder Hideki Matsui on the disabled list, replacement designated hitter Wilson Betemit could become a nice power source. Betemit slugged .556 in June and has hit safely in each of his four starts since Matsui was placed on the DL on June 23. He took Oliver Perez deep Sunday in the Mets left-hander's sharpest outing of the year. … Lefty-killing first baseman Ryan Garko is one of only a few Cleveland hitters recommended against red-hot White Sox starter John Danks, who has allowed just one run in his past three starts combined. Garko posted a .914 OPS versus lefties last year and is 5-for-12 with two home runs off Danks. … Dmitri Young is in the Nationals' lineup every day thanks to injuries to corner infielders Nick Johnson and Ryan Zimmerman. On Tuesday against Mark Hendrickson, Young should be in all lineups, as he's crushing left-handed pitching at a .317 BA/.404 OBP/.610 SLG clip this season. He's 8-for-11 with three doubles and a home run against the highly flammable Marlins southpaw. … Brian Giles is a top pickup Tuesday. The Padres outfielder is hitting .300 and has posted an OPS north of .800 each month this season. Like most hitters, Giles loves Coors Field, where he boasts a .288/.404/.550 career mark. He also loves Rockies starter Aaron Cook; Giles is 15-for-36 with no strikeouts against him. Teammate Kevin Kouzmanoff also should be claimed in time for the Coors Field Experience. The Padres third sacker has hit safely in six straight games since returning from a sore back that cost him a week. … Cubs outfielder Jim Edmonds is 6-for-19 with three home runs during the past seven days. He's sure to be in the lineup Tuesday against right-handed Giants starter Matt Cain. Pitchers: Tim Wakefield is a better bet than his Rays counterpart in Tuesday's clash of American League East leaders. The 41-year-old knuckleballer owns a 2.31 June ERA and has hurled at least seven innings in six consecutive starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in each. He's also 19-3 versus the Rays. … Minnesota right-hander Scott Baker can be used against Detroit on Tuesday. Baker hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his five starts since returning from a groin injury. He compiled a 3.00 ERA in June and has already tossed 10 innings against the Tigers this year, allowing three runs and seven baserunners. With nemesis Magglio Ordonez (10-for-25) on the shelf, the active Tigers roster is hitting just .189 lifetime off Baker. … Toronto's Jesse Litsch is having a very good year, but the right-hander started to slip a bit last month, ending June with a 5.12 ERA. He finished strong, though, as he tossed eight three-hit innings against the Reds. He still can be used against the weaker offenses like the Mariners' offense. … The identity of Litsch's Seattle counterpart may not be official until near game time. With Felix Hernandez unlikely to take his turn, the Mariners will use a committee of relievers Tuesday. Ryan Rowland-Smith is the likely choice to start, though Roy Corcoran and Mark Lowe are also possibilities. Whoever takes the hill first will not pitch long enough to qualify for the win.
Weather concerns
Games in Tampa, Minnesota, Seattle, Houston and Arizona are always weatherproof. Rain throughout the Northeast could threaten American League contests in Baltimore and New York, but the forecast for the rest of MLB Nation calls for clear skies.
Will Harris is a fantasy baseball and college football analyst for ESPN.com