[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHAT WOULD YOUR STRATEGY BE IF YOU HAD TO PICK LOSERS?[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I overheard a conversation the other day between a couple of bettors enduring recent slumps. You may have been in a conversation like this yourself. Things are going bad, and you think stuff like:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think it's a good exercise for gamblers to imagine for a second that they HAD to pick losers. Imagine a sportsbook starts a contest where the WORST record wins. Or, imagine a heads up challenge where, instead of picking your own games, you have to turn in your opponent's picks and hope they lose. What would your strategies be if you HAD to pick losers?[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Think about that for awhile. I'll play along for a bit myself, focusing on baseball since that's the sport in season. Off the top of my head, if I wanted to lose:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's not as easy as you'd think. In fact, the very items I mentioned came to mind because so many gamblers have been playing those themes incorrectly.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The fact is...many squares could actually win a contest where "losing" earns the prize. They would just have to turn in their normal picks. As a reader of these web articles, I'm hoping you'll lift your game above that. Think about your daily slate from all sorts of directions. Imagine you had the power to give an enemy picks for the day, and you wanted him to SUFFER! What would you give him? Ironically, many gamblers lack the confidence to say "I'd give the opposite of what I'd like best." They would dig deeper with some creative menace, and really inflict some ugly picks on the guy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Well, bring that passion to your slate every day...and take the other sides of those ugly picks! You would have loved inflicting Seattle on an enemy when the Mariners were playing horribly. Did you yourself bet against them every day back then? No, you were looking for spots where they might win. You'd stick him with the Yankees -200 or worse as often as possible. Have you been playing Yankees opponents at +170 or better? Lackey and Lowe faced off in Dodger Stadium this past Sunday afternoon. Were you playing the Under because so many pitchers duels had been going Under out West? [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I firmly believe this exercise will help you think more clearly about the best wagering options on the board. Something about making your own picks leads to timidness and conservatism. Something about wanting to inflict bad picks on somebody else leads to courage and aggression. When you figure out how to play common sense strategies with courage and aggression, you'll be much closer to being a sharp![/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]WHAT WOULD YOUR STRATEGY BE IF YOU HAD TO PICK LOSERS?[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I overheard a conversation the other day between a couple of bettors enduring recent slumps. You may have been in a conversation like this yourself. Things are going bad, and you think stuff like:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I should just bet against my opinions every day. I'd be 7-2 this week instead of 2-7.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I wish they had contests for picking the most losers, I'd win that for sure.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I should just use the "Costanza" approach and do everything the opposite of my instincts.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think it's a good exercise for gamblers to imagine for a second that they HAD to pick losers. Imagine a sportsbook starts a contest where the WORST record wins. Or, imagine a heads up challenge where, instead of picking your own games, you have to turn in your opponent's picks and hope they lose. What would your strategies be if you HAD to pick losers?[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Think about that for awhile. I'll play along for a bit myself, focusing on baseball since that's the sport in season. Off the top of my head, if I wanted to lose:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I'd think about picking the Yankees every day because they're the most overpriced team in baseball. The public loves betting the Yankees. And, a lot of New York money finds its way to Las Vegas and Reno through various outlets. If you're trying to lose money, taking the worst of it by betting the Yankees is a good way to go.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I'd think about playing Overs in pitcher's duels. I've talked a few times this year about all the Unders we've been seeing. We just had four 1-0 games this past weekend, then a 2-0 game Monday Night. The market totals are typically at 7 or 7.5 for expected pitchers duels. I'd guess about two thirds have gone Under so far. If I was trying to pick losers, I'd bet on Overs in pitchers duels, particularly when the games are in pitchers parks.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I'd bet on slumping teams to win. We've seen some really bad stretches in baseball in recent weeks. Seattle was horrible for six weeks. San Diego and Colorado are having bad seasons, and both were in long losing streaks until they had to play each other the past few days. When a team is going bad, they often throw in the towel, or go in the tank because they're sick of the manager. If I were trying to lose, I'd bet on these teams when things were going bad. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]It's not as easy as you'd think. In fact, the very items I mentioned came to mind because so many gamblers have been playing those themes incorrectly.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Guys keep betting the Yankees figuring they're about to get hot. They might get hot. They did actually get hot for awhile. They've been losing again of late though. This is a team that loses big money if the play .500 ball because the prices are so high. I know guys who are playing them every day...guys who are playing them at -1.5 runs hoping to make it cheaper (a very stupid strategy unless the wind is blowing out or the opposing pitcher is horrible)...and guys who are just trying to pick their spots with a couple of pitchers. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Guys keep betting the Overs in probable pitcher's duels because they just HAVE to bet Over when they see a low total like 7 or 7.5. We saw a couple of 6.5's in the National League in San Diego. Sorry folks, of you chart these results in the right conditions (game temperatures, wind, umpires), you're going to find that the numbers are too high. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Guys are betting on slumping teams using the "due theory." They figure professional teams can't keep losing, so they'll just keep throwing money at them until they win. Some play "Martingales" where they press up after each loss trying to earn back their money when the team finally wins. This is how you go broke. Imagine doing that with a team that just lost eight in a row. What if two teams at the same time were doing that? [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The fact is...many squares could actually win a contest where "losing" earns the prize. They would just have to turn in their normal picks. As a reader of these web articles, I'm hoping you'll lift your game above that. Think about your daily slate from all sorts of directions. Imagine you had the power to give an enemy picks for the day, and you wanted him to SUFFER! What would you give him? Ironically, many gamblers lack the confidence to say "I'd give the opposite of what I'd like best." They would dig deeper with some creative menace, and really inflict some ugly picks on the guy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Well, bring that passion to your slate every day...and take the other sides of those ugly picks! You would have loved inflicting Seattle on an enemy when the Mariners were playing horribly. Did you yourself bet against them every day back then? No, you were looking for spots where they might win. You'd stick him with the Yankees -200 or worse as often as possible. Have you been playing Yankees opponents at +170 or better? Lackey and Lowe faced off in Dodger Stadium this past Sunday afternoon. Were you playing the Under because so many pitchers duels had been going Under out West? [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I firmly believe this exercise will help you think more clearly about the best wagering options on the board. Something about making your own picks leads to timidness and conservatism. Something about wanting to inflict bad picks on somebody else leads to courage and aggression. When you figure out how to play common sense strategies with courage and aggression, you'll be much closer to being a sharp![/FONT]
