Okay, so here's what I dreamed up on the bus on the way to work a couple of days ago...
At the beginning of each series, you take a look at the series prices. Only using the teams within 50 points of each other (ie. Dodgers +115/Astros -135, Tigers -110/Twins-110, etc.), use a martingale sort of system for the home team. So here's what it would look like for this week's Mon-Wed series.
Royals +105
Orioles -125
Tigers -110
Twins -110
Dodgers 115
Astros -135
Mets 110
Cardinals -130
Jays -135
Mariners 115
In each series, you're betting the ML on the home team and using a martingale sort of system.
For every game let's say you bet TO WIN $100 (the exact total depends on the juice obviously). If you lose that (let's say the game was -110, so you lost $110). You would use the 2nd game of the series to try and WIN $210 (again, your risk amount will differ based on the juice for the second game). Suppose again that the 2nd game juice is -110 and the home team lost again, you would've lost $231. After two games, you've lost $341. For the final game of the series, you're again trying to WIN $100...so you're betting to win $441 and with -110 juice, that's a final bet of $488.10.
However, if you win a game then you stop betting on that series. Thus, if all the home teams win that qualify to be bet on in Game 1, then you're done betting for a couple of days.
The idea with only selecting the teams that are within 50 points of each other for the series is to avoid laying really thick juice on the favorites and to avoid the risk of a dog being swept at home. The idea is that a home team has a significant enough advantage that in a close series, they're likely to win one at home.
Anyhow, if you would've followed the system for the above 5 series starting on Monday, you would've had this:
Royals +105
Orioles -125
-Game 1: Orioles lose 5-6
-Game 2: Orioles win 7-5 = WIN $100
Tigers -110
Twins -110
- Game 1: Twins lose 4-5
- Game 2: Twins win 6-4 = WIN $100
Dodgers 115
Astros -135
-Game 1: Astros win 4-1 = WIN $100
Mets 110
Cardinals -130
-Game 1: Cardinals win 7-1 = WIN $100
Jays -135
Mariners 115
-Game 1: Mariners lose 0-2
-Game 2: Mariners win 7-6 = WIN $100
Your thoughts?
At the beginning of each series, you take a look at the series prices. Only using the teams within 50 points of each other (ie. Dodgers +115/Astros -135, Tigers -110/Twins-110, etc.), use a martingale sort of system for the home team. So here's what it would look like for this week's Mon-Wed series.
Royals +105
Orioles -125
Tigers -110
Twins -110
Dodgers 115
Astros -135
Mets 110
Cardinals -130
Jays -135
Mariners 115
In each series, you're betting the ML on the home team and using a martingale sort of system.
For every game let's say you bet TO WIN $100 (the exact total depends on the juice obviously). If you lose that (let's say the game was -110, so you lost $110). You would use the 2nd game of the series to try and WIN $210 (again, your risk amount will differ based on the juice for the second game). Suppose again that the 2nd game juice is -110 and the home team lost again, you would've lost $231. After two games, you've lost $341. For the final game of the series, you're again trying to WIN $100...so you're betting to win $441 and with -110 juice, that's a final bet of $488.10.
However, if you win a game then you stop betting on that series. Thus, if all the home teams win that qualify to be bet on in Game 1, then you're done betting for a couple of days.
The idea with only selecting the teams that are within 50 points of each other for the series is to avoid laying really thick juice on the favorites and to avoid the risk of a dog being swept at home. The idea is that a home team has a significant enough advantage that in a close series, they're likely to win one at home.
Anyhow, if you would've followed the system for the above 5 series starting on Monday, you would've had this:
Royals +105
Orioles -125
-Game 1: Orioles lose 5-6
-Game 2: Orioles win 7-5 = WIN $100
Tigers -110
Twins -110
- Game 1: Twins lose 4-5
- Game 2: Twins win 6-4 = WIN $100
Dodgers 115
Astros -135
-Game 1: Astros win 4-1 = WIN $100
Mets 110
Cardinals -130
-Game 1: Cardinals win 7-1 = WIN $100
Jays -135
Mariners 115
-Game 1: Mariners lose 0-2
-Game 2: Mariners win 7-6 = WIN $100
Your thoughts?