A new little system to try out...your thoughts???

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May 14, 2008
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Okay, so here's what I dreamed up on the bus on the way to work a couple of days ago...

At the beginning of each series, you take a look at the series prices. Only using the teams within 50 points of each other (ie. Dodgers +115/Astros -135, Tigers -110/Twins-110, etc.), use a martingale sort of system for the home team. So here's what it would look like for this week's Mon-Wed series.

Royals +105
Orioles -125

Tigers -110
Twins -110

Dodgers 115
Astros -135

Mets 110
Cardinals -130

Jays -135
Mariners 115

In each series, you're betting the ML on the home team and using a martingale sort of system.

For every game let's say you bet TO WIN $100 (the exact total depends on the juice obviously). If you lose that (let's say the game was -110, so you lost $110). You would use the 2nd game of the series to try and WIN $210 (again, your risk amount will differ based on the juice for the second game). Suppose again that the 2nd game juice is -110 and the home team lost again, you would've lost $231. After two games, you've lost $341. For the final game of the series, you're again trying to WIN $100...so you're betting to win $441 and with -110 juice, that's a final bet of $488.10.

However, if you win a game then you stop betting on that series. Thus, if all the home teams win that qualify to be bet on in Game 1, then you're done betting for a couple of days.

The idea with only selecting the teams that are within 50 points of each other for the series is to avoid laying really thick juice on the favorites and to avoid the risk of a dog being swept at home. The idea is that a home team has a significant enough advantage that in a close series, they're likely to win one at home.

Anyhow, if you would've followed the system for the above 5 series starting on Monday, you would've had this:

Royals +105
Orioles -125

-Game 1: Orioles lose 5-6
-Game 2: Orioles win 7-5 = WIN $100

Tigers -110
Twins -110

- Game 1: Twins lose 4-5
- Game 2: Twins win 6-4 = WIN $100

Dodgers 115
Astros -135

-Game 1: Astros win 4-1 = WIN $100

Mets 110
Cardinals -130

-Game 1: Cardinals win 7-1 = WIN $100

Jays -135
Mariners 115

-Game 1: Mariners lose 0-2
-Game 2: Mariners win 7-6 = WIN $100



Your thoughts?




 

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LordofBalls

red....

using the tms you provided as an example...

you could also have played the visitors... w/o laying juice usually (except for tor w/Halladay)

so...
you could just play the underdog in these scenarios... at plus money instead of laying juice... since they seem to get a win in the series?

i dont know if youve ever looked in my thread for home tm totals system, but its also a successful r/l system using the same tms that are home for long homestands of 6 gms or more...

but..

if you would have played the Padres last week... they lost all 6 gms.... most of them at good prices... but when you lose 3 in a row laying any juice... it sucks... do the math...when its -35 or -50..... you can lose a bundle...
I wish I could say I found a perfect system... but I havent
I created one thats done pretty well.... but its not perfect...
nor have I seen one from anyone else here or any other sites...

I wish you luck with whatever you decide to do... :103631605
would recommend you try to avoid laying juice whenever possible...

And if you decide to put the effort into it... go back a few months...
ck how youd have done if youd taken the dog in each series that is relatively close on the $$ line....

I would wager that youd be ahead doing that... not that many sweeps... some, but not that many... and if you threw out the huge favs, maybe a money maker...:toast:

who knows... maybe i just created a new system !! :lolBIG:
 

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The martingale system with this in itself has no value, unless you think the odds of the team winning the second game (and then the third) are significantly higher because of losing the earlier games.

You're essentially just blindly betting home teams in "close" series, and ramping up your variance a ton.

Jesse
 

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