How Do You Cap Baseball?

TheWolf · Jul 2, 2008

Ive tried for 10 years now with only marginal success some years.

Back in the late 90's I really focused on pitchers vs Hitters and that always worked well for 1-2 months then KABOOM.

Had a few good years in which I padded bankroll for football, but the last 3-4 years have been rough. Crunched stats beyond belief. Tried Stoffo/ Martingale, blah, blah, blah.........Even tried following numbers/steam with no season long success.

I'd like to hear from some of you guys who have had success over the long haul in MLB. I am about ready to bag it until football begins.

OTK · Jul 2, 2008

I'm honestly not a numbers guy. I won't look at who's lineup has had previous success against this pitcher or at this park or whatever because it is generally a very small sample size and doesn't equate future success against that same pitcher or in that same park.

I honestly bet more on feels for the team. If you watch the games or even just know the teams/players well you can often pick spots that are better suited for one team. There really isn't one thing I look at particularly for baseball, but the biggest thing to remember is home field advantage means A LOT. I will almost never take a road favorite because almost every team will finish better or at least near .500 at home.

I also don't play individual games, I play the 3 game series'. I find it easier to cap. Anything can happen in one game, but typically the better team will prevail in the series.

BrashL · Jul 2, 2008

I focus on pitcher and offense over the last 3 games/starts. No other sport is more streaky (on account of the every day games) and more dependant on one player )the pitcher.

I also stick mostly to over/unders, as it's the easiest thing to predict given the above to factors.

2PLAYSMAX · Jul 2, 2008

Heads or Tails.

billhill999 · Jul 2, 2008

2PLAYSMAX said:
Heads or Tails.

You know, I am starting to think the same way, throw a dart at the dart board.

Seriously, pitching and defense wins, so start your capping with pitching, then concentrate on team trends and such.

I just saw that the best bet in baseball this season are home dogs.
Home dogs win over 52% of the time, which is nice considering you are getting odds on a better than 50/50 proposition.

miamiboy86 · Jul 2, 2008

2PLAYSMAX said:
Heads or Tails.

I am with you....was sickly hot the first 3+weeks of capping baseball...have gone on a 10+ day cooler.....such a streaky game...

gijoe · Jul 2, 2008

St. louis just keeps making me money

MrRogers · Jul 2, 2008

watch the losers....its only a matter of time....before they lose again

SkinsRaj28 · Jul 2, 2008

Feces newspaper toss theory.

TheWolf · Jul 3, 2008

BrashL said:
I focus on pitcher and offense over the last 3 games/starts. No other sport is more streaky (on account of the every day games) and more dependant on one player )the pitcher.

I also stick mostly to over/unders, as it's the easiest thing to predict given the above to factors.

Ive tried to find teams hitting numbers for the past 3 games but cant. Only last game and past 7 games. Where do you find what a teams offensive numbers are for the past three games?

jordan17 · Jul 3, 2008

BrashL · Jul 3, 2008

The Wolf said:
Ive tried to find teams hitting numbers for the past 3 games but cant. Only last game and past 7 games. Where do you find what a teams offensive numbers are for the past three games?

Nothing that precise. I just check the total runs in the last 3 games (and if there's a weird outlier I usually check what pitcher they faced and disregard if appropriate). I'm basically just trying to avoid slumping teams and ride hot ones. It's not an exact science but is good enough as a backstop.

fromrussiawithlove · Jul 3, 2008

when i was vegas working on programs for Pops, he told me the most important for baseball is:
#1 Pitchers
#2 Weather
#3 Line Moves
#4 YTD & Last Month Trends
#5 Streaks

he make sheet when odds are posted by bookmakers the day before, and places his positions on game that he projects to move the most (which are for scalpers etc)

he most never listens to heads talking and no watch any sports games. says no use, does not change w/l, and they only would give him so much opinions, and does never want to bet because of them

the sheet below is his daily work sheet, just do one of these and you will have everything you need for that day. most automatic using visual basic

i must go to work now

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How Do You Cap Baseball?

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TheWolf

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.

OTK

A goal without a plan is just a wish.

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2PLAYSMAX

I think I want my money back!

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MrRogers

RX God

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For G-Baby

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THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.

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Rx Local Motion

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