Oddsmaking Industry Taking Some Shortcuts

ACE-ACE · Jul 3, 2008

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Nick always make you think![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ODDSMAKING INDUSTRY TAKING SOME SHORTCUTS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I was quoted in an article the other day talking about how oddsmaking in Las Vegas has gotten a little easier in Reno and Las Vegas ever since the offshore industry took hold. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We're located in the Pacific Time Zone. Many bettors who use offshores want to bet based on the Eastern Time Zone schedules. By the time sportsbooks open up in Nevada, the offshore numbers have already been pounded into place. In the old days, guys running sportsbooks worked hard to come up with a solid number. Now, it's possible to sleep in and just put up and offshore number![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm not saying that's what happens. Every oddsmaker has to consider his own clientele, and what numbers would generate proper action in his area. But, you could make the case that the heavy lifting is being done elsewhere in recent years. Oddsmakers used to do all the heavy lifting, then tweak their numbers based on clientele. I don't think that's the case so much any more.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You know, I think the sports wagering industry in Nevada has to be careful about the direction it's going. I don't think people are getting lazy. But, they're taking some shortcuts that may not be to the benefit of longterm success. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For example, you've probably heard that many sportsbooks have lowered limits in some sports, and don't even take certain action at all. It's gotten to be like blackjack in many places. If a sharp gambler shows he can win, then he's escorted out to the curb and asked to take his business elsewhere. Can you imagine that happening in some other competitive field?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jacksonville Jaguars are having trouble posting a great record, so they just alert the NFL that they won't be playing Indianapolis or New England any more. They'll play their other games. But, the Colts and Pats aren't welcome. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Los Angeles Clippers are tired of losing all the time, so they don't allow their team on the court against other Western Conference teams. They'll only play the East from now on. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In college hoops, half the SEC decides to play a CUSA schedule so they can have better records. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's about what's happened in Las Vegas, and to a lesser extent Reno in recent years. Sportsbooks became part of corporate conglomerates who want to show a profit every month. A great way to show a profit is to kick out winners and only take bets from losers. Instead of LIFTING THEIR GAME, sportsbooks changed the game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sorry, but I refuse to believe that it's impossible for sportsbooks to outmaneuver the sharps. They have access to the same information sharps have. They can hire stat analysts and scouts the same way pro franchises can. Look at what happened to the Boston Red Sox once they hired the new generation of brains and research. You're telling me a casino conglomerate can't do that and post excellent numbers that cut into a sharp's profits while still beating the squares?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've talked often in recent months about the mistakes sharps have been making when betting sports. They're not perfect. They don't win every month or ever season. It's as if the sportsbooks decided they couldn't compete with the sharps, so they're kicking them out like card counters. Sharps thought New England should have been 4-1 to beat the Giants in the Super Bowl! Many sharps are playing the Main Event in the World Series of Poker this week because they're having trouble with the bases. Sharps don't always win![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here was how it worked in the old days:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sportsbooks put up numbers hoping to split action between the sharps and the squares. It didn't always work out that way. But over time, the sportsbooks would make a good hunk of change while sharps were beating squares. There would be losing months. Maybe even a losing year. You can be sure that sportsbooks weren't going out of business though. They were earning a nice profit over time, and driving traffic to the casinos. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Corporations don't want to risk losing months or losing years, they want limited sharp action, and numbers that will beat the squares enough to grind out a profit. Sportsbook traffic is still busy for big sporting events, but it's quiet at other times of the year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you want to win money in the bases this summer...and, more importantly, in football this fall, I'd suggest the following keys.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Do your homework! Odds are still mostly based on power ratings rather than in-depth statistical analysis of the teams and key players involved. Sportsbooks are denying sharp action because the sharps are way ahead of the curve in this area. If sportsbooks aren't going to take the plunge and lift their game, it's your job to take advantage. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think like a sharp, but don't act like a sharp in sportsbooks! Wear a team jersey. Carry a drink around. Act like a fan who's betting on his favorite team rather than an investor shopping for prices. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bet when other people are betting. It's a hassle standing in line. But, you're much more likely to blend in with the crowd and not draw attention to yourself. In the old days, many sharps would go in during quiet times because they wanted to get things done quickly and efficiently. Nothing screams "sharp" more than a guy betting in this style. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stay Under the betting limits. You've probably heard that some places will go over their limits if they're one-sided on a game, or if they think you're a rich whale in the process of losing money all over the casino. Asking about limits just draws attention to yourself. WINNING at increased limits really draws attention to yourself. Unless you ARE an actual whale who is losing money all over the casino, you're not going to get away with this. And, you're winning from Peter to pay Paul anyway. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't going to reach the Super Bowl by refusing to play Indianapolis and New England. I don't think sportsbooks will maximize their earning potential until they think like champions instead of bean counters. Right now, they are thinking like bean counters, so you might as well do your best to take advantage. Sharps will have to deal with the frustrations. The current size of your bankroll probably means you won't have those kinds of concerns for the time being. [/FONT]

maxdemo · Jul 3, 2008

good read thx

jambolaya1 · Jul 3, 2008

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Think like a sharp, but don't act like a sharp in sportsbooks! Wear a team jersey. Carry a drink around. Act like a fan who's betting on his favorite team rather than an investor shopping for prices. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bet when other people are betting. It's a hassle standing in line. But, you're much more likely to blend in with the crowd and not draw attention to yourself. In the old days, many sharps would go in during quiet times because they wanted to get things done quickly and efficiently. Nothing screams "sharp" more than a guy betting in this style. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stay Under the betting limits. You've probably heard that some places will go over their limits if they're one-sided on a game, or if they think you're a rich whale in the process of losing money all over the casino. Asking about limits just draws attention to yourself. WINNING at increased limits really draws attention to yourself. Unless you ARE an actual whale who is losing money all over the casino, you're not going to get away with this. And, you're winning from Peter to pay Paul anyway. [/FONT]

The article is good on the whole but this advice given is a little bit amateurish to the point of being overly dramatic. And i say this as a person who did move to las vegas and attempt the whole "run around thing" (right around the time every one had fled the offshores recently)

It is much harder than this guy implies and having vegas as your base is pretty much stone age gambling compared to a guy on a pc who can pull up half time lines at 10 different online books or real time scores, while you are stuck watching games based on whims of a book boss who probably just took a bribe from some whale to put ND on the tv screen facing him. (And that tv happens to be the one that dictates 30% of all the screens in the book!!!) Or even worse, those stupid vegas scoreboards that are 15 mins behind and also display the score you want once every 5 mins). Dont get me wrong, if you have some help you may make some lee way but a serious numbers guy cant survive on vegas alone..(help= a$$holes you have to split winnings with or a$$holes who nag you when a pick tanks-first word after final whistle)

First with this "think like a sharp" act like a square is total nonsense. Sports betting is not like counting cards..(i do that too) It does not matter if you walk into a sports book dressed in an italian suit or gym shorts. If you have ever been to a vegas book during march madness or even any college football saturday, then you know that its total b/s to worry about your dress giving you away. There are millionaires wearing hawiian shirts and flip flops, college kids in sports jerserys, pimps in suits etc etc. If you are a sharp, your dress aint gonna give you away or limit your action in any way it wasnt even originally limited. It all boils down to the size of the wager you are placing and how it plays with the particular books incoming money.

The book doesnt care if you are betting over the limit. (90% of the time they simply go by the number their computers calculate are do-able) Other times its the pit boss simply knowing your face and refusing your action. But the same can work for you positively. I had a pit boss at one book put line back up on a board just so i could play it. (game was on tv ref had the ball about to do tip off but it had just come off the board while i was collecting a huge pay out that he had to double check or approve or whatever they do when they call the boss over to confirm a large pay out..Never bothered to figure it out) This was at one of the Coast casinos. I wanna say the one by Palm. Those are very good for those who wanna play larger amounts. (may be because locals frequent them alot)

But this whole clock and dagger angle is overly romantisized bullshit that wont affect a gambler (dumb enough) to make vegas his base. You will lose enough from simple stuff like failing to take advantage of bad half time lines, lack of uptodate info and basic vegas limits that seriously cripple any pre-game or in-game adjustments smart gamblers make to save/buy back bad plays. (imagine having 10k on an NBA game in about 4-6 casinos round vegas, only to find out that a key player is out of the line up an hour before the game. It would be a nightmare for you to buy back the 10k bet because most casinos wont even take more than 1k on a game)

Ps...About your dress and asking about bet limits, this is kinda off base. Sports book clerks dont spend all day sitting around waiting for the "sharp" to walk up so they can report him because he asked a question about limits. You may have a small problem if the clerk calls the boss over to check limits. Limits arent set in stone. Most clerks will may tell you a limit of say 1k and then say "if you want to do more, i can ask". Or they may flip the question and ask you how much you wanna bet. If its below the typical book limit he will take it, if its above then he will do that little dance and here comes the pit boss to approve or decline it)

But guys sports betting is fundamental base crap in vegas. You cant make posts advising people to go buy beards just to make a bet in vegas.[/FONT]

Sugarbear · Jul 4, 2008

jambolaya1 said:
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The article is good on the whole but this advice given is a little bit amateurish to the point of being overly dramatic. And i say this as a person who did move to las vegas and attempt the whole "run around thing" (right around the time every one had fled the offshores recently)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It is much harder than this guy implies and having vegas as your base is pretty much stone age gambling compared to a guy on a pc who can pull up half time lines at 10 different online books or real time scores, while you are stuck watching games based on whims of a book boss who probably just took a bribe from some whale to put ND on the tv screen facing him. (And that tv happens to be the one that dictates 30% of all the screens in the book!!!) Or even worse, those stupid vegas scoreboards that are 15 mins behind and also display the score you want once every 5 mins). Dont get me wrong, if you have some help you may make some lee way but a serious numbers guy cant survive on vegas alone..(help= a$$holes you have to split winnings with or a$$holes who nag you when a pick tanks-first word after final whistle)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First with this "think like a sharp" act like a square is total nonsense. Sports betting is not like counting cards..(i do that too) It does not matter if you walk into a sports book dressed in an italian suit or gym shorts. If you have ever been to a vegas book during march madness or even any college football saturday, then you know that its total b/s to worry about your dress giving you away. There are millionaires wearing hawiian shirts and flip flops, college kids in sports jerserys, pimps in suits etc etc. If you are a sharp, your dress aint gonna give you away or limit your action in any way it wasnt even originally limited. It all boils down to the size of the wager you are placing and how it plays with the particular books incoming money.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The book doesnt care if you are betting over the limit. (90% of the time they simply go by the number their computers calculate are do-able) Other times its the pit boss simply knowing your face and refusing your action. But the same can work for you positively. I had a pit boss at one book put line back up on a board just so i could play it. (game was on tv ref had the ball about to do tip off but it had just come off the board while i was collecting a huge pay out that he had to double check or approve or whatever they do when they call the boss over to confirm a large pay out..Never bothered to figure it out) This was at one of the Coast casinos. I wanna say the one by Palm. Those are very good for those who wanna play larger amounts. (may be because locals frequent them alot)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But this whole clock and dagger angle is overly romantisized bullshit that wont affect a gambler (dumb enough) to make vegas his base. You will lose enough from simple stuff like failing to take advantage of bad half time lines, lack of uptodate info and basic vegas limits that seriously cripple any pre-game or in-game adjustments smart gamblers make to save/buy back bad plays. (imagine having 10k on an NBA game in about 4-6 casinos round vegas, only to find out that a key player is out of the line up an hour before the game. It would be a nightmare for you to buy back the 10k bet because most casinos wont even take more than 1k on a game)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ps...About your dress and asking about bet limits, this is kinda off base. Sports book clerks dont spend all day sitting around waiting for the "sharp" to walk up so they can report him because he asked a question about limits. You may have a small problem if the clerk calls the boss over to check limits. Limits arent set in stone. Most clerks will may tell you a limit of say 1k and then say "if you want to do more, i can ask". Or they may flip the question and ask you how much you wanna bet. If its below the typical book limit he will take it, if its above then he will do that little dance and here comes the pit boss to approve or decline it)[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But guys sports betting is fundamental base crap in vegas. You cant make posts advising people to go buy beards just to make a bet in vegas.[/FONT]

Good reponse here.

jambolaya1 · Jul 4, 2008

Actually i had more to say about this whole thing about the "vegas sports betting industry" But i was too tired to post. To be honest, our business has absolutely nothing to do with Vegas. And like many have said, if these Vegan donkey holes could have it their way, they would would totally clear off all sports books in every casino and have slot machines replace us. No i am not joking. Talk to any well informed and honest book manager and they will tell you the same. Dont get me wrong. Vegas would like to be the king of all betting and gambling on every sport, but online gamgling esp with the rise of poker has really really taken them for a bad freakin ride.

Believe it or not, these are the same ass howles behind the recent push to curb offshore betting with the arrests of those dirty scum sucking pieholes over at Betonsports.(no i aint shading a tear for those certified thieves. The owners of this place may do so because they lost that income but i am not inclined to do so after the way i was treated at that sham shop over 6 years ago.) If i were here whent that crap happened i would have been warning players against betting at a shot so stupid they tried to cheat a player 50 ways to baghdad and when the player beat all their regulations they tried to send a gumbah to my job to threaten me..Little did the gumbah know who i was rolling with back then!!!

So i do stand by post about how ridiculous this thread is. Vegas no longer hires any one astute enough to really handle a book. They go by computers and thats it!!! I cant stand when some old vegas prick posts tales of the old days and how you have to wear a "team" jersey to bet at a book...(like the college grads they are hiring now are too stupid to figure out that team jerseys dont mean shit!!! you can get beat by a wannabe gangsta in a plain white tee as the next bum smelling of last nights vegas pussy!!!!

Matter of fact if you are a sports bettor relying on those stupid a$$ vegas numbers then you are dumber than a box of rocks and can be beat by any average internet gambler with a decent bank roll and a controllable betting habit!!!

blackbox · Jul 4, 2008

Posts here are very good reads-Speaking as being on both sides of the counter,most books in Nevada "are as a convience" for the customer.So they do not leave the casino.Sir-you seem very wise and articulate-in your opinion-what makes the most money for a casino-10,000 FT.involved-table games-slots-or a sports and racebook. I think one more thing that hurt the Nevada books was when they went Pari-mutual. Thanks again for your good read!