Well....u and everyone else does too.....
<TABLE id=tblSpy style="TEXT-ALIGN: left" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" summary=Summary border=0><TBODY id=MLB-7.3.2008-922><TR class=alt id=rptSpy_ctl11_arow><TD title=game-date scope=row>07/03/08</TD><TD title=away-rotation-number scope=row>921</TD><TD title=away-team-name scope=row>Detroit</TD><TD title=away-opening-line>-150</TD><TD title=away-spread>-1.5+120</TD><TD title=away-money-line>-135</TD><TD title=away-total>o8.5-105</TD><TD class=block title=game-total-bets scope=row rowSpan=2>7336</TD><TD class=perc>94%</TD><TD class=perc>90%</TD><TD class=perc>69%</TD><TD class=perc>78%</TD></TR><TR class="alt block" id=rptSpy_ctl11_hrow><TD scope=row>10:10PM</TD><TD title=home-rotation-number scope=row>922</TD><TD title=home-team-name scope=row>Seattle</TD><TD title=home-opening-line>8½o20</TD><TD title=home-spread>+1.5-140</TD><TD title=home-money-line>125</TD><TD title=home-total>u8.5-115</TD><TD class=perc>6%</TD><TD class=perc>10%</TD><TD class=perc>31%</TD><TD class=perc>22%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Agreed, sometimes the public has to be right. The books cannot make a line high enough if 90% of the bets still go for a specific team.
I read SOMEWHERE that if 80%+ of the public (I even think I remember 75%) are on a team, the percentages are good enough to cover the juice.
For me, with Seattle being 1-5 SU against Tigers this year, and they have Silva who threw 0.2 innings the last time against Tigers, I'm sorry but I don't see a 7 inning, 3 hit performance by Silva this time, you know?
* CalvinTy
I don't put too much stock in what other people do especially in baseball. Baseball doesn't have spreads so you only have to worry about a win and the line is set right. Verlander sucks on the road, but he has good career numbers vs. the Tigers and they are playing well lately. Also Cabrera should be back in the lineup tonight.
When they lose just realize that you bet on the Mariners. Tough to bet on a team that has already thrown in the towel and it's not even the ASB.
As for public #'s... really can't be used on a consistent basis, and rarely works as a method to try and make a profit. Here's an example from Wagerline...
In June, teams that had 60%+ on one side were 116-83 (-6.15 Units)
However, if you faded each of those sides you were 83-116 (-3.29 Units)
The BOOK always wins, no matter who wins.
