[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ALWAY A GREAT READ FROM NICK![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]STEINBRENNER ISN'T HAPPY...BUT THE YANKS AREN'T THE BIGGEST MONEY LOSERS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hank Steinbrenner is complaining again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It looked like the Yankees had turned the corner a few weeks ago. They were running off several wins in a row. Hitters where healthy. The Joba Chamberlain experiment was working. Their record this year was better than at the same point last year. They looked to all the world like a team that was poised to make a run at Boston and Tampa Bay at the top of the AL East. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Then...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]STEINBRENNER ISN'T HAPPY...BUT THE YANKS AREN'T THE BIGGEST MONEY LOSERS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hank Steinbrenner is complaining again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It looked like the Yankees had turned the corner a few weeks ago. They were running off several wins in a row. Hitters where healthy. The Joba Chamberlain experiment was working. Their record this year was better than at the same point last year. They looked to all the world like a team that was poised to make a run at Boston and Tampa Bay at the top of the AL East. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Then...[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They lost two out of three at home to the Cincinnati Reds, a losing team from the inferior National League.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They split two games at Pittsburgh, another losing team from the inferior National League.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They split four games with the crosstown rival Mets. That's a 4-5 record against National League teams at a time where many AL teams were posting great marks.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They lost two out of three at home to the Texas Rangers, the third place team in the AL West.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They dropped the series opener at home against Boston, at a time where there's little margin for error if the Yanks want to get back in the race. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It wasn't just a bad stretch. It was a bad stretch that came mostly against losing teams or non-contenders, with the only games outside of New York played in Pittsburgh. The schedule provided a golden opportunity to lift off...instead it looked a lot more like a crash and burn. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]And:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hideki Matsui is out with a knee injury, continuing a run of bad luck in the health department. The Yankees have had very few games this season where all of their weaponry was on the field at the same time. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Alex Rodriguez is making headlines off the field again. That's rarely a good sign. For some players, controversy inspires them to big things. With AROD, it seems to bring his whole team down. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ace starter Chien-Ming Wang is out for the foreseeable future because of a foot injury. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sidney Ponson is in the starting rotation. Enough said. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Darrel Rasner is getting hit now that he's been around the league a bit. He's not fooling anyone any more. If Pettitte-Mussina-Chamberlain is followed by Rasner-Ponson, there aren't enough wins there to catch anybody from behind. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston and Tampa Bay are visiting RIGHT NOW! Boston finishes the weekend at Yankee Stadium. Tampa Bay is in for two games right after that. A slump right now would be a double killer because it would be giving victories to the teams New York is trying to catch. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a handicapper, I have to assume the Yankees will continue to be overpriced for the foreseeable future. The public loves betting the Yankees, and is very stubborn about giving up the practice. Oddsmakers know this, so they inflate the line in Yankees games to take advantage. At their best, the Yankees can win anyway and still turn a profit. Right now, it's not looking very good:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Won-Lost Record: 45-41 after Thursday Night's loss to Boston
Profit/Loss Ledger: minus 11 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The lines are so stacked against the Yankees that being four games OVER .500 means they lose 11 units! That means they have to be about 15 games over .500 at this point in the season to be break even for legal sports gamblers. It takes a true championship performance to show a profit.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will the Yankees play like champions in the coming days and weeks? It's hard to see that happening. The team isn't at full strength, and won't be for awhile. The team doesn't have starting pitching depth, or the caliber of long relievers that can carry you if the starters go out early. If you can't post a winning record against the Reds, Pirates, and Rangers, how are you going to dominate Boston and Tampa Bay?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'll be looking for spots to fade the Yankees between now and the All-Star break. If things don't turn around, I may just fade them the rest of the season. That's normally a sound strategy anyway because of the way the public bets. This year, with the turmoil under a new face in ownership, the somewhat traditional late season surge may not be in the cards. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How do the Yankees stack up with the rest of baseball in the profit/loss column? They're not the worst. There are teams suffering through much bigger disasters. Let's take a look:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PROFIT/LOSS THROUGH THURSDAY JULY 3RD
San Diego: -23 units
Cleveland: -23 units
Seattle: -19 units
Colorado: -17 units
Toronto: -12 units
Atlanta: -12 units
NY Yankees: -11 units
NY Mets: -10 units
Cincinnati: -9 units
Arizona: -9 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Those are estimates based on my closing numbers. Others may have slightly different results. In something like this, getting it to the exact penny doesn't matter much. We're just looking for the biggest money losers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego and Cleveland were both expected to compete for their division titles. Cleveland won the AL Central last year, and was expected to battle Detroit for the crown this year. San Diego lost in one-game playoff to eventual NL Champ Colorado last season. This was the year they were going to get over the hump. Instead, BOTH have been horrible. The media has largely missed the stories because they're focusing on more media friendly teams. Tampa Bay's getting a lot of pub. Boston still grabs headlines. The Chicago Cubs are now America's Team in the National League, and they're winning. People are focusing on that instead of the negatives. You can make a lot of money focusing on the negatives![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle has righted the ship after making management changes. They might actually be a team to take for a few weeks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Colorado is another disaster story that's going unreported. One of the reasons Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado have lost so much money is that nobody's paying attention! The lines have been slow to adjust because the public keeps betting off last year's perceptions. Even if they're not the type to load up on non-marquee teams in the best of times, they still won't accept that they're playing like expansion teams so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toronto and Atlanta backers have also had it worse than Yankees fans so far. Those teams weren't expected to win their divisions, but were expected to win more often than they have. It's tough for both...because the talent just isn't there to justify optimism. There are stars, but not depth. Toronto doesn't have enough hitting. Atlanta doesn't have enough pitching. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As bad as it's been for the Yankees, there are some teams in even more dire straights. Of course, when ownership expects championships every year, you're bound to have more perceived failures than successes. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Should you pay attention to the profit/loss ledgers of all 30 teams? I think so. It's a great tool for recognizing value spot. Maybe around the All-Star break I'll run the numbers for everybody. That will give us a chance to outline expectations for the second stage of the season. If you can just find one underrated team to back, and one overrated team to go against, you're going to make some money. If you dig closely, you'll see that there are obviously more than one of each. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Won-Lost Record: 45-41 after Thursday Night's loss to Boston
Profit/Loss Ledger: minus 11 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The lines are so stacked against the Yankees that being four games OVER .500 means they lose 11 units! That means they have to be about 15 games over .500 at this point in the season to be break even for legal sports gamblers. It takes a true championship performance to show a profit.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Will the Yankees play like champions in the coming days and weeks? It's hard to see that happening. The team isn't at full strength, and won't be for awhile. The team doesn't have starting pitching depth, or the caliber of long relievers that can carry you if the starters go out early. If you can't post a winning record against the Reds, Pirates, and Rangers, how are you going to dominate Boston and Tampa Bay?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'll be looking for spots to fade the Yankees between now and the All-Star break. If things don't turn around, I may just fade them the rest of the season. That's normally a sound strategy anyway because of the way the public bets. This year, with the turmoil under a new face in ownership, the somewhat traditional late season surge may not be in the cards. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How do the Yankees stack up with the rest of baseball in the profit/loss column? They're not the worst. There are teams suffering through much bigger disasters. Let's take a look:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]PROFIT/LOSS THROUGH THURSDAY JULY 3RD
San Diego: -23 units
Cleveland: -23 units
Seattle: -19 units
Colorado: -17 units
Toronto: -12 units
Atlanta: -12 units
NY Yankees: -11 units
NY Mets: -10 units
Cincinnati: -9 units
Arizona: -9 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Those are estimates based on my closing numbers. Others may have slightly different results. In something like this, getting it to the exact penny doesn't matter much. We're just looking for the biggest money losers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego and Cleveland were both expected to compete for their division titles. Cleveland won the AL Central last year, and was expected to battle Detroit for the crown this year. San Diego lost in one-game playoff to eventual NL Champ Colorado last season. This was the year they were going to get over the hump. Instead, BOTH have been horrible. The media has largely missed the stories because they're focusing on more media friendly teams. Tampa Bay's getting a lot of pub. Boston still grabs headlines. The Chicago Cubs are now America's Team in the National League, and they're winning. People are focusing on that instead of the negatives. You can make a lot of money focusing on the negatives![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle has righted the ship after making management changes. They might actually be a team to take for a few weeks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Colorado is another disaster story that's going unreported. One of the reasons Cleveland, San Diego, and Colorado have lost so much money is that nobody's paying attention! The lines have been slow to adjust because the public keeps betting off last year's perceptions. Even if they're not the type to load up on non-marquee teams in the best of times, they still won't accept that they're playing like expansion teams so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toronto and Atlanta backers have also had it worse than Yankees fans so far. Those teams weren't expected to win their divisions, but were expected to win more often than they have. It's tough for both...because the talent just isn't there to justify optimism. There are stars, but not depth. Toronto doesn't have enough hitting. Atlanta doesn't have enough pitching. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As bad as it's been for the Yankees, there are some teams in even more dire straights. Of course, when ownership expects championships every year, you're bound to have more perceived failures than successes. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Should you pay attention to the profit/loss ledgers of all 30 teams? I think so. It's a great tool for recognizing value spot. Maybe around the All-Star break I'll run the numbers for everybody. That will give us a chance to outline expectations for the second stage of the season. If you can just find one underrated team to back, and one overrated team to go against, you're going to make some money. If you dig closely, you'll see that there are obviously more than one of each. [/FONT]
