Betting many games vs betting only a few games

Stocks · Jul 6, 2008

Whats everyones thoughts on betting a lot of games vs betting just a few games.

Betting 1000 games a year which is around 3 games a day vs betting 5000 games a year which is around 15 games a day.

Betting 5000 games a year may be a bit hard depending on how manys sports you bet I only bet Nascar, NFL, NHL and MLB which is around 17,000 possible bets a year sides and totals so finding value in about 1/3 of the games may be hard altough I could add NBA and PGA and add another 6000 possible bets for 23,000.

Lets say you have a $10,000 bankroll and for the 1000 bets a year you bet 2.5% and for the 5000 bets a year you bet 1% which is sound enough money management.

Few Bets - 57% of 1000 bets at $250 is $25,000

Many Bets - 55% of 5000 bets at $100 is $27,500

Which do you think is easier I think the 57% of 1000 is easier

Anyway just wondering what everyones thoughts were on the subject and if anyone would like to share they're experience on either startegy good or bad. I myself like to bet fewer games between 1-5 I dont do so well betting a lot of games.

Iceman · Jul 6, 2008

I made close to 11,000 bets last year. If you talk to a lot of guys who do this for a living they will tell you they look for small edges and keep betting and betting and betting them.

For the 2008 year I have made 5,250 bets. The problem is the variance can be hard on ones stomach which is why I say and believe that one should bet so small that they shouldnt even feel it (which will never be the case). You go thru some rough stretches this way but eventually there will be little to no luck and you will end up right around where you should be. I have had 3 losing months so far this year but am up 1.9% ROI and there has been a really rough stretches, so I am not sure I would advise it but it works for me.

The thing is with 1,000 bets will eventually become 5,000 bets and there is NO WAY that anyone is going to win at 57% win rate over that many plays but the good news is you dont need to win at that rate to make good money.

I hope to win around a 2% ROI for the year. That works out to 200-300 units won for the year.

Now if you are just doing this recreationally then my answer would be to just pick and choose but if you plan on doing this somewhat serious I highly suggest trying to ALWAYS get the best number you can on a game and shoot for a 54% over lots and lots of games. Just my two cents.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jul 6, 2008

Do you include hedge bets and scalps among your 5250 bets? I think that is the only way you win making over 11,000 bets a year...

Santo · Jul 6, 2008

I made 198 straight bets in June across 10 sports, which is lower than average for the summer because Interleague wiped out a decent period of it.

I don't have a count of how many if you include the stuff I scalp.

I would guesstimate I make around 4000 straight bets a year over at least 15 sports plus some novelty markets

Iceman · Jul 6, 2008

VIEJO DINOSAUR said:
Do you include hedge bets and scalps among your 5250 bets? I think that is the only way you win making over 11,000 bets a year...

very rarely maybe 1-2%.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jul 6, 2008

Then I don't think you can win overall, but would be happy to discuss this over a drink at the BASH...just my opinon....

Stocks · Jul 6, 2008

Damn thats a lot of games you bet ice lol but I kind of agree with what your saying and I'm kind of on the fence of going that way. Its just past results have been pretty shitty when I bet a lot of games maybe its the way I pick my games I only look at the odds and a few key stats and sometimes I dont even need to look at the stats because when you check them everyday you already know them and this way for me hits at a pretty good % and only takes a few minutes a day maybe upto a half hour.

But I wonder if I'm leaving a lot of money out there by not betting a lot of games specially in baseball where theres a lot of games that I dont have a strong opinion on but may have some good value.

Santo · Jul 6, 2008

If I was manually handicapping, I would bet nowhere near as many as I do.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jul 6, 2008

11,000 games equals a lot of strong opinons...Ice, do you like action or do you have those strong opinons?

bookie · Jul 6, 2008

About 500/plays for the year for me.
If I play any more than that my winning % drops dramatically.

Santo · Jul 6, 2008

I guess those are bets he's making on Pinnacle's opinion / Weight of money rather than his own.

BadCo · Jul 6, 2008

If you can win 2 out of 3 per day thats 66%

Doing it is another thing.

If you looking at it as a stock market type thing and have the time grinding out a daily profit will add up at the end of year.

If your looking to smack your man betting a small amount of games and getting hot and then lay down the thunder on your man on certain game here and there then pick and choose.

Winning more than you lose,thats the pipe dream.

charliepeete · Jul 6, 2008

i usually have between 15 and 20 perday the more the better..........as explained aboved.:nohead:

ACE-ACE · Jul 6, 2008

When I was a book..the ones that beat me every year was the ones that bet only a few game a week...call it the best of the best play...you will find that is the best way.If you bet alot...than you should do it two way...Investment...a few each week for the bigger amount of money...than action plays...lots with small edge and small amount of money...action is more like ..its on tv...I need to bet to bet...small edge what the hell

still it better to do fewer games from my point of view

best to you this year

ACE

Iceman · Jul 6, 2008

Little to no opinion on any of them. I mostly follow steam, bet off numbers and fade late moves if I get a peak number that I feel is being hit by the public just before gametime. Bottom line the focus is to beat the closing line by a certain amount (depending on the type of bet, etc) on these and you will win eventually .

One thing I am proud of so far this baseball season is I have capped some sides everyday and am up about 20 units on my own doing that. I do like to cap the NFL (who doesn't?) and with extensive shopping I think I have won a little on it most years since 2004 or so.

I think the thing most are forgetting with this is I am not betting all sides and totals. For example with baseball so far today i have made 16 bets so far and of those here is the breakdown:
4 game totals
3 indiviual team totals
2 totals in 1st 5 innings
3 1st 5 inning runlines
4 game sides

I have went pretty in depth on all this in the past. This method I use is something that has evolved from when I scalped and middled 2-3 years ago and was averging 15-20 scalps/middles a day (helped to have Pinny) and I kept beating the bad number and losing to the good. I asked around (and god did I ever ask, LOL) and found out a lot of guys who do this are high voulme players. One of the best bettors I know from these forums, who is very well known and does this for a living just talked about this in a thread at another forum the other day and he said he has days were he has over 100 bets (think my record is 80 or so during CBB season).

Most of the time I barely pay attention to the name of the team I am betting. To be totally honest with you I will be the 1st one to admit I do not think I am smart enough to beat this by capping by myself, etc... It is too hard (IMO). I am trying some new things and would love to add this to the mix one day. Betting smaller things lik props at smaller books is a major one. Actually I would say looking back at my records I am a overall loser the past year betting the major stuff like NBA sides and totals, etc... It is the stuff like WNBA (thanks poster King of College basketball totals for his WNBA totals plays) have made a huge difference.

Another thing I think a lot forgot is I am not playing at your traditionally sharp books (like most that advertise here) but looking for square type outs and betting off numbers there. Throw in the fact i am usually in at around 10 outs at all times (up to 15 during football) and I will do whatever it takes to get the best number, as this really is the whole key to this.

BadCo · Jul 6, 2008

^^^......Cliff notes please...........LOL

MrJ · Jul 6, 2008

Then I don't think you can win overall

Ice doesn't have opinions on them. He's been doing this for long enough to know for certain that he's +ev. He wouldn't have survived if he wasn't.

look for small edges and keep betting and betting and betting them.

Perhaps a little picky, but I'd say the aim is to bet any and every edge.

Stocks, be concerned over your own profitablility rather than these theoretical winrates. As Ice said, 57% over 1000 or 55% over 5000 almost certainly won't be the issue.

If you can win 2 out of 3 per day thats 66%

Pretty damn hard to win 66% of your bets if they're only 57% bets.

you will find that is the best way

Not necessarily. He probably would if he's trying to handicap, but there are more profitable ways to bet. Also, the guys you were booking were a small sample, likely couldn't do a high turnover method at the time, and certainly wouldn't be able to do it at a single book, unless it's a horrible book.

bellyputter · Jul 6, 2008

I make around 140 wagers per year(excluding middles). I also do this for a living. End of story. Good Luck

CoachLT · Jul 6, 2008

bellyputter said:
I make around 140 wagers per year(excluding middles). I also do this for a living. End of story. Good Luck

I am with you, BP. Maybe a little less. I do NOT do this for a living. I am on a fixed income. Just trying to supplement it.:nohead::toast: LT

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jul 6, 2008

If I was smart, I'd go down to Florida with a shovel and start digging around Coach LT's property....he buries all his winnings....

Betting many games vs betting only a few games

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