Service Plays Monday 7/7/08

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JEFFERSONSPORTS


MLB EARLY RELEASE FOR MONDAY
FLORIDA+115
SEATTLE+150

more tomorrow

Hondo

It was a lost weekend for Hondo, who dropped three straight, the latest coming yesterday when he went draino with the Jays in Anaheim to lower the earnings to 450 draveckys.

Tonight, he'll move down the coast to San Diego for a 10-unit investment on Nolasco and the Fish.

Stu Feiner Writeups:

American League

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays

Not much left to say about the Rays. This team is just on a fantastic run. This isn’t a run that should be taken lightly. This is a run that shows how strong of a team they have become. The Tampa Bay Rays are on a seven game winning streak. Even better than that record is the fact that this team is coming off an 11-1 mark.

The Rays haven’t done it with any smoke and mirrors either. They have pitched well, they have played solid defense and they sure have hit. So far in these first three games against the Royals they have scored a total of 23 runs. They have actually out-scored the Royals 23-4 in these first three games.

Matt Garza is more than a capable starter. He is 7-4 on the season and has one of the lower ERA’s in the American League. A 3.47 mark and a whip of just 1.17 shows us how real this guy is. Take the home team, it doesn’t matter how high the line is.

Tampa Bay Rays (-)


Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox

Sure the Red Sox played late last night but they return to the place where they do just one thing and that one thing is winning. The Red Sox still sport the best home record in all of baseball. This team has found a way despite their injuries to still be the second best team in baseball. At home this team is 31-10 and they pour it on.

The Red Sox average over 5.60 runs per game in their building. They are also hitting an amazing .290 as a team in Fenway. Don’t you think for a second they are just a team that scores runs and does nothing else in Boston? They have an ERA of just 3.38 and allow less than four runs per ball-game.

The Twins have been great there is no question about that but the Red Sox at home with Dice K on the mound is too good to pass up. This is a guy that has lost a total of one game all season. The Sox are 11-3 in his starts and he will get the job done here tonight.

Boston Red Sox (-)


LA Angels at Texas Rangers

This line is just too good to pass up. The Rangers are coming off a big win yesterday against the Orioles. In a slugfest they came out victorious. They put up 11 runs and held on to win that game 11-10. That is the Rangers M-O. They are a big time offensive team and they don’t hide that fact. They go out there and they give up runs but they can put them up with the best of them.

The Rangers lead all of baseball in runs scored and they are top three in almost all important statistics. This line-up hits over .280 as a team. They have hit almost 110 home-runs. They have an OPS that leads all of baseball .806. We could go on and on about their offense but we think you get the hint.

The Angels can’t match the Rangers offense. The Angels are just 22nd in the league in runs scored and they hit just .257 as a team. Look for this game to be high-scoring and look for the Rangers to take care of business at home.

Texas Rangers (+)


Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Real tough loss for the Mariners yesterday. They had to play fifteen innings against the Tigers and came up on the losing side of things. In fifteen innings the Mariners managed just one run and six hits. The Tigers didn’t do much better but they were able to win a tight one run game.

After that game you expect them to fly to Oakland and beat a tough left-handed pitcher? We just don’t see it. The Athletics are coming off a tough loss themselves. They head home though and they will bounce back. The Athletics sport a 27-21 mark in Oakland. The Mariners on the other hand are just 16-26 on the road. Jarrod Washburn goes for the Mariners. He is just 4-7 on the season and the Mariners are just 5-11 in his sixteen starts.

Dana Eveland has been throwing the ball exceptional all season. Look for him to get his seventh win and the Athletics bounce back from a tough loss to a first place team.

Oakland Athletics (-)


National League

"Every Game Every Day Free"

July 7, 2008

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates

This line is just too good to pass up for the Pirates. The Astros are coming in here and they are exhausted. Houston was part of a 17 inning game last night. The Astros used everyone on their team (outside of their starting pitchers). They ended up using seven pitchers in this contest. These pitchers didn’t throw a batter or two. Each and every pitcher threw over 20 pitches and over an inning. Some of the relievers even threw two or three innings.

With no off night the Astros have to head in to Pittsburgh. The Pirates are as under-rated as any team at home. This is a team 25-19 at home this season and they have been able to have a very positive return this season.

The Pirates can hit folks, make no mistake about it. Even last night in a game the Pirates lost, but they pounded eight hits and six runs. The Pirates are the third best offense in the National League. They have hit 90 home runs this season. Look for the Buckos at home to take care of the Astros. Houston is not a bad team, but they aren’t a team that makes you profits on the road.

Pittsburgh Pirates (-)


New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

A big game from the New York Mets last night. In fact the Mets have played three straight solid games against the Phillies. They lost a tough game 3-2 opening night, but they then bounced back to win the game Saturday 9-4 and then followed that up with an impressive extra inning win 4-2 on Sunday.

Pedro hasn’t been great this season, there is no doubt about that, but it is time for him to turn it around. Pedro always takes a while to get going during a season, well this is no different. Pedro didn’t have April or May to get in to his groove. His groove is about to hit right now.

Last start against the Cardinals he did allow seven hits and five runs, but most of that damage came in the first inning. Pedro cruised after the first inning allowing just one solo home run and one run in total. The Mets are better than a .500 baseball team. They will take the game and the series.

New York Mets (+)


Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

Have to like the Brewers here tonight at home. This is a team that is starting to pick up their play as of late. Sure all the talk is about the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals but that is all about to change. Late last night the word came down that the Brewers are making a big push for it this season. The Brewers have agreed in principal for starter C.C. Sabathia. They are giving up their best prospect but it will be well worth it.

A trade like this lifts the entire team each and every day. It is not just the games where C.C. Sabathia gets the ball. He immediately brings a cache to the Brewers and he makes them from pretenders to contenders in just a few moments.

The Brewers have been playing solid baseball for a while now. In their last 26 games as a favorite (23 home games) they are 19-7. When these guys are supposed to win, they do win. Seth McClung goes tonight for the Brew Crew. He is 5-3 on the season and he hasn’t lost a start in close to a month.

Milwaukee Brewers (-)


Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres

Look for the Padres to get the job done here tonight. They are coming off an impressive series against the first place Diamondbacks. They were able to take two of three from those Diamondbacks. They did it with timely hitting and good pitching. There only loss came yesterday and that was a 3-2 game that they were in to the entire time.

The Padres are still a very capable baseball team especially at home. Greg Maddux goes for the Padres here tonight and he has been pitching excellent. Don’t look at his record, because at 3-6 it is very deceiving. The Padres are 9-9 in Maddux’s 18 starts. Greg has an ERA right around 4. The Padres haven’t played well at home, but that will all change tonight. Take the bull dog and the Padres.

San Diego Padres (-)


Atlanta Braves at LA Dodgers

All over the Dodgers here tonight. The Dodgers return home after a week long road trip. They really have picked it up lately. You aren’t going to know by their record but Los Angeles is in prime position to win this NL West. On the road trip they went 5-2. That included four straight victories against the Giants and the Astros. The Dodgers were able to win both series. Two against the Giants and three against the Astros.

The Dodgers bats was what needed to get going and they did. We all know the Dodgers can pitch. After all they have an ERA that is ranked fourth in all of baseball. On the road trip though they had run outputs of: Seven, Four, Five, Ten and Five. Those are incredible numbers for the Dodgers who rank 24th in the league in runs scored.

We all know the Dodgers have a ton of talent. LA is also starting to get healthy. Getting back Nomar and Andruw Jones will only help this team. Look for LA to rattle off a nice winning streak before the all-star break.

LA Dodgers (-)
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Brandon Lang

MONDAY
15 Dime Dodgers
5 Dime Devil Rays Run Line
5 Dime Marlins<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (44-44) at Philadelphia (48-41)

These two N.L. East rivals conclude a four-game set with the Mets sending veteran Pedro Martinez (2-2,7.39 ERA) to the hill to battle the Phillies’ Adam Eaton (3-6, 4.79) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.

New York scored a 4-2, 13-inning victory on Sunday and has won six of the last eight in this rivalry after losing nine in a row dating back to last season. Overall, the Mets have alternated wins and losses on their current road trip, while the Phillies have won four of their last six overall despite yesterday’s setback.

Philadelphia is on streaks of 36-17 at home against teams with a losing record, 8-2 in the fourth game of a series and 6-1 on Mondays. Meanwhile the Mets are on slides of 1-7 on Mondays and 4-8 against N.L. East rivals.

Martinez has been beaten up in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA and the Mets have lost all three and four of his last five. In St. Louis on Wednesday he gave up five runs in five innings of an 8-7 loss, dropping to 1-1 with an 8.37 ERA in five road starts. Also, Martinez is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA in 22 career games against Philadelphia.

The Phillies have lost three of Eaton’s last four outings, with the victory coming on Tuesday in Atlanta as the veteran right-hander gave up two runs in five innings of a 7-3 win. The Mets have seen Eaton nine previous times, going 1-8 in those contests, with Eaton posting personal numbers of 5-0 with a 3.29 ERA. That includes a 5-4 home victory against New York on April 20, with Eaton yielding four runs in five innings.

Philadelphia is on runs of 5-2 with Eaton on the hill at home and 5-2 when he faces N.L. East rivals. Meanwhile the Mets are just 2-8 when Martinez faces a winning team on the road and 1-6 when he goes up against N.L. East foes.

The Mets have topped the total in 16 of Martinez’s last 22 road outings, including four of five this year, and the over is 6-0 on the road when he’s faced a team with a winning record and 4-1 in his last five outings against Philly. For the Phillies, the under trends include 17-5-1 in Eaton’s last 23 starts overall, 10-1 when he pitches at home, 4-1 against the N.L. East and 5-1 versus the Mets.

Finally, as a team, Philadelphia is on under streaks of 22-9 overall, 9-3 against the N.L. East and 5-1 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (50-38) at Boston (52-39)

The streaking Twins pay a visit to Fenway Park and send Scott Baker (5-2, 3.65 ERA) to the mound to take on Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-1, 3.12) in the opener of this three-game series.

Minnesota has won 19 of its last 23 games, including five in a row after a weekend sweep of the Indians, which was capped off by Sunday’s 4-3 come-from-behind win inside the Metrodome. The Twins are 5-1 in their last six on the highway and have gone 22-7 lately against right-handed starters. Minnesota also has had success against the Red Sox recently, winning 11 of the last 17 series clashes, including three of four in Minnesota in May.

Boston concluded a four-game set in New York on Sunday night with a 5-4, 10-inning loss to the Yankees, splitting the series with their division rivals and concluding a 3-7 road trip. But the Red Sox are now back at Fenway, where they have dominated the opposition, going 40-12 in their last 52 (31-10 this year), and they are 28-11 in their last 39 contests against the A.L. Central.

Baker is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts, and the Twins have won six of his last nine outings. On Tuesday, he held the Tigers to three runs over six innings of a 6-4 victory. He’s only faced the Red Sox once, in a relief appearance, and gave up one run on three hits in three innings.

Matsuzaka is 5-1 with a 4.10 ERA at Fenway this season and he’s unbeaten under the lights at 6-0 with a 2.62 ERA. However, Boston has lost three of his last four outings, but he was tough in his last two, allowing one run on four hits over his last 10 innings of work. He’s beaten the Twins twice, including May 10 this season when he surrendered two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-2 victory. In both starts combined against Minnesota, he’s 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings of work.

With Matsuzaka on the hill, Boston is on runs of 16-5 overall, 17-5 at home and 5-0 when he faces team from the A.L. Central. With Baker pitching, the Twins are 7-2 in the last nine against the A.L. East and 5-2 in the past series openers.

The under is on runs of 7-2 when Baker faces a winning team, 5-2 in his last seven overall and 6-2-1 when Matsuzaka faces squads from the A.L. Central. Also, in head-to-head matchups between these teams, the under is 18-8-2 in the last 28 overall and 4-1 in the last five at Fenway Park.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER

Scott Ferrall Comp

MINNESOTA +150 over Boston--The Red Sox played Sunday night in the Bronx and the Twins are unbeatable right now. Take Baker in the upset special of the night at Fenway. Baker is 5-2 and he'll stun Dice K. UNDER 9 RUNS

Texas +125 over LA Angels--Another one no one thinks will happen. The Rangers can go toe to toe with anybody. Ervin Santana will be a heavy favorite and all the action will be on him. I'm on Mendoza and the Texas bats. OVER 10 RUNS

OAKLAND -155 over Seattle--The A's had it rough in Chicago over the weekend and will take it out on the Mariners. Eveland over Washburn and THE OVER 8 RUNS

Nostridomus

Monday's Selections

MLB-Philadelphia -125
MLB-Oakland -155
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Armvin Sports

7/7/2008 Los Angeles Dodgers -129

7/7/2008 Texas Rangers 129

Gamblers Data

Phillies -127

Insider Sports Report

L.A. Dodgers -130 over Atlanta (MLB)

JIMMY THE MOOSE

Game: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Jul 7 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Reason: The Mets are 4-8 in their last 12 games vs. NL East opponents. New York sends Pedro Martines to the mound and he hasn't been sharp of late. Over his last 3 starts, all Mets losses, his ERA is 10.20. NY is 1-4 in his last 5 road starts. The Mets have lost 8 of his last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 6 games. In their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record the Phillies are 12-3. The Phillies have won 5 of Eaton's last 7 home starts. In his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record Philadelpia is 6-2. The Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 trips to Philadelphia. The Mets have lost Pedro's last 4 starts vs. the Phillies. Play on the Philadelphia Phillies -.

JIMMY BOYD

Phillies -118 (listing Kendrick)

The Phillies will be in full on bounce back mode here after blowing yesterday's game in the 8th. We'll take them to the bank with the dominant Kendrick hurling. The Phillies are 12-2 in their last 14 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the National League East. The Phillies are 13-3 in Kendrick's last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, 5-1 in Kendrick's last 6 starts vs. the National League East, and 19-7 in Kendrick's last 26 starts overall. The Mets are just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the Phillies.

TOM FREESE

Game: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Jul 7 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Mets

Reason: Philadelphia starter Adam Eaton is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Eaton is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners than innings pitched and still game away with the win. New York is 7-0 their last 7 games as underdogs of +110 to +150 and they are 9-4 in the last 13 starts made by Pedro Martinez if he has 4 days of rest. The Mets are 5-2 their last 7 road games vs. righty starters and they are 5-2 with Martinez in Game 4 of a series. PLAY ON NEW YORK +(Martinez vs. Eaton)

CAPPERS ACCESS

Mon (MLB) Red Sox
Mon (MLB) Marlins

Joe Wiz

Florida +110 over San Diego

MARC LAWRENCE

GAME: Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 7, 2008 10:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: LA Dodgers w/Kuroda
Note: The Dodgers host the Braves in the first of a three game series in Los Angeles Monday night as they look to avenge a three game series sweep suffered at Atlanta in April earlier this year.

Mondays have been good to the Dodgers as evidenced by their 13-5 mark of late, including 5-1 their last six at home. With Hiroki Kuroda 4-2 at home with a 3.00 ERA, as opposed to 3-6 away with a 4.29 ERA, we'll stay at home with Kudoda and the Dodgers here tonight.

We recommend a 1-unit play of the Dodgers with Kuroda.

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

Monday: Take MINNESOTA/BOSTON OVER the total of 9 runs

TodaysPicks.net MLB

7/7/2008 KANSAS CITY ROYALS 154

Sports Kingz

mlb:

Minnesota +150

Angels -140

Oakland -155

Milwaukee -120