All opinions welcome... ...1st Inning plan

We did OK in the first half of the season on 1st Inning scoring with the following general process:

1. wait for game 25 of the schedule
2. use teams data for % of 1st inning runs scored, allowed, and total games
3. use pitcher's only with 5 or more starts and their stats.
4. use only lines that hold value
5. try and use some money management

we hit about 70% with +17 units on 42 wagers. maximum wager was 3 units. record was 30-12.

6. paused all wagering for inter-league play

currently:

7. wait until game 100 of the schedule
8. use only pitchers with 10 starts.

now, the $20K question:

do we fade the trends in the 2nd half of the season (assuming most pitchers and teams will migrate towards the league averages)? do we keep going in the same manner as the first half? maybe we just quit?

since inter-league play ended, i have been making "pseudo-picks" each day (according to the original criteria) and they have gone 7-11. they have lost about 8 units. i would have had a "play of the year" on saturday that would have lost as well.

all opinions welcome. obviously, there is no right or wrong answer here. thanks in advance.

my initial thought is to fade the pitchers who have been solid "NO's", have more than 15 starts, and are facing a team for at least the second time.


peace

lazzonya

What has it done in years past? Was the 2nd half of the season dramatically different than the first half?

unfortunately, this is the first season i'm aggressively pursuing this.

Is there anyway to see how pitchers ended last year? Were they all in a group? Doubtful.

Were there pitchers that gave up a lot of 1st inning runs and some that didn't? Probable

I don't know exactly how you find your plays, but I doubt that everyone will migrate toward the mean.

Whatever you decide to do you definitely should track it for years to come.