Some Sharps Befuddled By Strong Mlb Home Field Advantage

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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SOME SHARPS BEFUDDLED BY STRONG MLB HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]One of the hallmarks of the "sharp" approach used by professional baseball wagerers in Las Vegas and Reno is to find road underdogs with great payoffs. Over the years, you could make the case that this one element more than any other is the difference between making money and losing money.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This season, it's been difficult for sharps to make any headway with this approach. Home field advantage is higher right now than it's been in years. And, the teams most likely to be expensive (division leaders) are the teams who keep winning![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Take a look at the best home field records heading into Sunday's action:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chicago Cubs: 33-10
Boston: 31-10
Tampa Bay: 35-13
Chicago White Sox: 31-13
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That list of four includes the best teams in the American and National Leagues (Tampa Bay and the Cubs), plus last year's World Champion (Boston), and another first place team that's been doing very well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Hopefully you can just eyeball those to determine what breakeven money lines would be. If you can't, then you shouldn't be betting baseball on your own! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With their home record, the Cubs would have needed to be -330 on the Nevada moneylines to be "break" even in terms of money. Anything lower than that, and you earn a profit by betting the Cubs. Well, if you've been following baseball, you know that the lines aren't anywhere near that! There hasn't been a single game in the vicinity. If the Cubs were throwing ace Carlos Zambrano at home against the worst team in baseball throwing its worst pitcher, the line would barely exceed -220 or so. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston also conveniently has 10 losses for the math. Their moneylines would have needed to be -310 to break even. The Sox are pricier than the Cubs as a general rule...but not so pricey that you'll see -300 very often in their home games. They don't have an ace like Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana who would generate such a high price. Just betting the Sox at home would have yielded a nice return.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The other "Sox," the White Sox of Chicago also have a very good record. They're not up in -300 territory like the Cubs and Red Sox...but they're well over 2-1. How often have you seen Ozzie Guillen's guys laying -200 at home this year? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay is the surprise team of the year, and the "Steal of the Century" in terms of making money at home. They're well past the -250 mark in equivalent production. They were priced as a .500 team or worse for well over a month, and are still priced with skepticism by the wagering markets. You don't often see, in any sport, a team that was THIS much better than the market expectation for such a long period of time. The Rays have played almost 50 home games and the lines still haven't adjusted properly.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you're a legal gambling regular, or you've been reading my internet articles since they started, you know that those tendencies fly in the face of what sharps normally like to do.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps like to bet against popular public teams like the Red Sox and Cubs because sentiment typically makes their lines too high.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps like to bet on road teams because the public historically has overrated the value of home field in baseball. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps like to bet against team who seem to be playing over their heads for awhile, particularly if it's a big city team that will get media attention (like the White Sox).[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sharps like to bet against "flash in the pan" teams who seemingly come out of nowhere, because history shows that those teams crash and burn more often than not. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I don't want to suggest that sharps are having a bad year. I know guys who have done very well with totals plays. Sharps tend to focus on Unders (because the public likes Overs), and the first couple of months in particular skewed way to the Under. Sharps also like playing home underdogs. With home teams doing so well this year, home underdogs have won money for them. And...they all go against the Yankees, who continue to burn money for their backers. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, the BIG payoffs they enjoy with value road underdogs just aren't there this year. And, the guys who like to play "correlated" parlays with the road teams and Overs are finding that cupboard particularly bare this season. A lot of guys are break even or down a bit this year because of the home field phenomenon. Those who bailed on road underdogs early on are very happy with their seasons so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What should YOU do as you handicap the rest of the season?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I can' say with confidence that this extreme level of home field performance is going to continue. Everybody plays 81 home games in major league baseball. It's one thing to go 30-10 in your first 40 games. It's another to go 61-21 for the season. There isn't much precedent in this sport for that to happen, particularly with multiple teams in a time of relative competitive balance. Of course, a regression to the mean was likely 10 home games ago for everybody. And 20. Some sharps have been playing the "due theory" even though they should know better. It's best to wait until you see things turning round in my view. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've heard and read some interesting conspiracy theories about why home teams are winning. Gamblers in particular can come up with some fanciful theories whenever they see an extreme number. If they're losing, those even get a bit crazier. I'm not ready to believe yet that home teams are doing anything unsportsmanlike or worse to create these edges. Another month of this and I might have to reconsider. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For now, go with the flow. Don't try to hammer a square peg into a round hole. Don't bet big road dogs until you see some cashing tickets. If the tide is going turn, it's going to run in the other direction for awhile once road dogs start winning. Wait for some upsets then step in and make some moves. Should you bet home favorites until they start losing? You have to take every game as it comes. Tampa Bay was pretty cheap on their recent homestand considering how often they were winning. Same with the White Sox. If the market is going to be stubborn about acknowledging success, make them pay for it![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sometimes the All-Star break disrupts what had been happening in the first half and sends things careening in new directions. I might wait until then to look for any noticeable changes. In the meantime, expect "home sweet home" to continue to run its course. [/FONT]
 

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