System play that favors the yanks .. .

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Tampa Bay has chasing teams above them more often than Peter Cook in another stratosphere, however having put the best record in baseball together and in first place the AL East, the roles have been reversed for the first time in franchise history. This leads to challenges never before known to Tampa Bay psyche, especially in division games.
The Rays have lost just three in a row just twice since May 1, playing exceptional baseball. What keeps all teams from extended losing streaks or helps catapults them onto long winning streaks is starting pitching. If a team has lost a couple in a row, they need a starter to step up and slam the door, to prevent a longer period of losing. Tonight, Edwin Jackson (5-6, 4.08, 1.389 WHIP) will be called upon to just that for Tampa Bay. Because Jackson came up so young, it’s easy to forget he’s only 24-years old. Jackson possess a high 90’s fastball with late movement, when he spots it properly, this makes his slider that much better. He’s been in a better groove of late, with 2.57 ERA in last three starts and including allowing one earned over eight innings against Kansas City.

The Yankees have won three straight after losing five of six and are sending Sidney Ponson (5-1, 4.19, 1.620 WHIP) to the bump. Ponson’s misconduct had Texas send him packing and New York has been so desperate for starting pitching, GM Brian Cashman was willing to give the troubled Ponson another tour of duty in the pinstripe. He actually was adequate for Texas when he made first start in late April, yet in many ways; he’s a time bomb ready to explode allowing 85 hits in 66 and 2/3 innings. Despite sporting a 1-0 record in his last three starts, Ponson has allowed 22 hits, 10 walks in 15 innings of work, not exactly Cy Young material.

On the surface, Tampa Bay should have a decided edge and they are only +105 underdogs However, this precise situation has played out differently.

PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or higher over his last three starts.

Ponson fits the latter description, with baseball history showing pitchers and teams in his spot allowing four runs in next outing. Place this up against Jackson and the Rays in this situation and this twosome has allowed 6.1 runs per game in the last five seasons. Underdogs like Tampa Bay are only 11-48, 18.6 percent when faced with these types of contests. Through the last half decade, the numbers have been quite consistent, along with this season as well with 6-1 record.

On the surface Tampa Bay seems to have edge, but old habits die hard like 3-25 record in July playing road games and New York has won eight of last 10 after scoring five or more runs.
 

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great post...and yet i am still going with the under and the Rays today.....good luck on whatever you chose to do
 

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