Numbers not kind to Hernandez
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 9, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
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Hernandez
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Livan on the edge
Livan Hernandez will pitch at Fenway Park on Wednesday for his 10th win of the season. The veteran right-hander has won three of his past four games, and the Twins are 13-6 in his starts despite the fact that, by many measures, he has been the worst pitcher in the majors this season. • Hernandez has a .336 batting average against, the worst mark among all pitchers. • He is making batters miss on only 9 percent of their swings, the worst mark among all pitchers. The major league average is 19 percent. • He is allowing 59 percent of the swings batters take against him to be put in play, which is the worst mark among all pitchers by a 4 percent margin. The major league average is 43 percent. • He is allowing 20 percent of the swings against him to be hit well, which is (again) the worst mark in the majors. The major league average is 11 percent. • He has been even worse once all those runners get in scoring position, when his batting average against is .351 and he allows a major-league worst 61 percent of the swings against him to be put in play. Hernandez is living off of run support. The Twins rank among baseball's leaders in runs scored, averaging just under five runs per game. In the 13 games the Twins have won with Hernandez starting, however, they have averaged 6.9 runs. In the six games the Twins have lost with Hernandez on the hill, they have averaged 2.3 runs. The Red Sox, whom the Twins face Wednesday, are one of the only teams in the majors to score more runs than Minnesota this season, so it could get ugly for Hernandez. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Mulder
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Mulder's return important for Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are in the hunt for the wild card, and they hope that Mark Mulder's return bolsters their rotation for the stretch run. Mulder came back last week after his second left shoulder surgery in the past two years. Following two relief outings, he makes his first start of the season Wednesday against Philadelphia. In recent years, Mulder has not pitched like the 20-game winner he was in Oakland. After getting selected to the AL All-Star team in 2003 and 2004 (his final two seasons with the A's), Mulder pitched well in his first season with St. Louis, going 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 2005. In 2006, he went 6-7 with a 7.14 ERA. Then, after missing most of last season following his first shoulder operation, Mulder lost all three of his September starts. He finished 2007 with a 12.27 ERA. In two appearances out of the bullpen this past week, Mulder allowed two runs and four total hits in 1 1/3 innings against the Mets. The statistical trends are pointing in the wrong direction for Mulder, as his numbers since 2006 are much worse than in 2005, his last winning season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Mulder breakdown, scouted regular season games</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2005</td> <td>2006-2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.268</td> <td>.336</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.395</td> <td>.584</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss percentage of swings</td> <td>11.8</td> <td>4.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>ABs per HR</td> <td>44.7</td> <td>19.0</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> While opposing hitters have a .355 batting average off his high-80s fastball in the past three injury-shortened seasons (.290 in 2005), Mulder's slider has been battered at an even more alarming rate: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Mulder's slider, scouted regular season games</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2005</td> <td>2006-2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.185 (12-for-65)</td> <td>.458 (11-for-24)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.138</td> <td>.375</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.262</td> <td>.833</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of at-bats</td> <td>12.3</td> <td>4.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> A continuation of those dreadful stats will hurt the Cardinals in their postseason quest, but if Mulder is finally healthy and pitches the way he did in the first part of his nine-year career, his return will give St. Louis a needed shot in the arm. 3. Jackson tough on Abreu
Edwin Jackson faces the Yankees on Wednesday, affording Yankees right fielder Bobby Abreu another chance against his biggest nemesis. Abreu is 1-for-16 against Jackson. Abreu's .063 career batting average against the Rays' righty is his lowest against any pitcher he has faced at least 15 times. Likewise, Jackson has handled Abreu better than any hitter he has faced in 15 or more at-bats. In scouted games since 2006, Abreu has hit .287 against right-handers. He hits righty fastballs (.309 BA) and changeups (.278) better than breaking pitches (.230), and is much better on pitches located above his knees (.345) than down in the zone (.201). Right-handers pitch him accordingly, but Jackson has deviated from the book by elevating more often and throwing more changeups than usual to Abreu: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Pct. of pitches to Abreu since 2006</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>All RHP</td> <td>Jackson</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>23.5</td> <td>33.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle</td> <td>26.8</td> <td>21.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Down</td> <td>49.5</td> <td>45.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitch</td> <td>All RHP</td> <td>Jackson</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Fastball</td> <td>65.4</td> <td>68.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Curve</td> <td>17.4</td> <td>8.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Changeup</td> <td>16.9</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Abreu averages 4.74 pitches per plate appearance against Jackson, who prevents the Yankees' slugger from establishing a comfortable rhythm by mixing up his pitches, locations and speeds. This breakdown of a seven-pitch at-bat from their most recent game offers a good look at Jackson's approach against Abreu: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Jackson vs. Abreu - 4th inning May 13</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Count</td> <td>Pitch</td> <td>Velocity (mph)</td> <td>Location</td> <td>Action</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-0</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>89</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Strike looking</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0-1</td> <td>Change</td> <td>83</td> <td>Middle</td> <td>Strike looking</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-2</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>84</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>1-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>94</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>92</td> <td>Middle</td> <td>Foul</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2-2</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>82</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>3-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>93</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Groundout</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Jackson has not had good command this season, throwing only 62 percent of fastballs for strikes, below the 64 percent league average. But he has thrown strikes on 17 of 23 fastballs (74 percent) to Abreu in 2008.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 9, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Livan on the edge
Livan Hernandez will pitch at Fenway Park on Wednesday for his 10th win of the season. The veteran right-hander has won three of his past four games, and the Twins are 13-6 in his starts despite the fact that, by many measures, he has been the worst pitcher in the majors this season. • Hernandez has a .336 batting average against, the worst mark among all pitchers. • He is making batters miss on only 9 percent of their swings, the worst mark among all pitchers. The major league average is 19 percent. • He is allowing 59 percent of the swings batters take against him to be put in play, which is the worst mark among all pitchers by a 4 percent margin. The major league average is 43 percent. • He is allowing 20 percent of the swings against him to be hit well, which is (again) the worst mark in the majors. The major league average is 11 percent. • He has been even worse once all those runners get in scoring position, when his batting average against is .351 and he allows a major-league worst 61 percent of the swings against him to be put in play. Hernandez is living off of run support. The Twins rank among baseball's leaders in runs scored, averaging just under five runs per game. In the 13 games the Twins have won with Hernandez starting, however, they have averaged 6.9 runs. In the six games the Twins have lost with Hernandez on the hill, they have averaged 2.3 runs. The Red Sox, whom the Twins face Wednesday, are one of the only teams in the majors to score more runs than Minnesota this season, so it could get ugly for Hernandez. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Mulder's return important for Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals are in the hunt for the wild card, and they hope that Mark Mulder's return bolsters their rotation for the stretch run. Mulder came back last week after his second left shoulder surgery in the past two years. Following two relief outings, he makes his first start of the season Wednesday against Philadelphia. In recent years, Mulder has not pitched like the 20-game winner he was in Oakland. After getting selected to the AL All-Star team in 2003 and 2004 (his final two seasons with the A's), Mulder pitched well in his first season with St. Louis, going 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 2005. In 2006, he went 6-7 with a 7.14 ERA. Then, after missing most of last season following his first shoulder operation, Mulder lost all three of his September starts. He finished 2007 with a 12.27 ERA. In two appearances out of the bullpen this past week, Mulder allowed two runs and four total hits in 1 1/3 innings against the Mets. The statistical trends are pointing in the wrong direction for Mulder, as his numbers since 2006 are much worse than in 2005, his last winning season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Mulder breakdown, scouted regular season games</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2005</td> <td>2006-2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.268</td> <td>.336</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.395</td> <td>.584</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss percentage of swings</td> <td>11.8</td> <td>4.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>ABs per HR</td> <td>44.7</td> <td>19.0</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> While opposing hitters have a .355 batting average off his high-80s fastball in the past three injury-shortened seasons (.290 in 2005), Mulder's slider has been battered at an even more alarming rate: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Mulder's slider, scouted regular season games</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>2005</td> <td>2006-2008</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA against</td> <td>.185 (12-for-65)</td> <td>.458 (11-for-24)</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg. against</td> <td>.138</td> <td>.375</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG against</td> <td>.262</td> <td>.833</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of at-bats</td> <td>12.3</td> <td>4.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> A continuation of those dreadful stats will hurt the Cardinals in their postseason quest, but if Mulder is finally healthy and pitches the way he did in the first part of his nine-year career, his return will give St. Louis a needed shot in the arm. 3. Jackson tough on Abreu
Edwin Jackson faces the Yankees on Wednesday, affording Yankees right fielder Bobby Abreu another chance against his biggest nemesis. Abreu is 1-for-16 against Jackson. Abreu's .063 career batting average against the Rays' righty is his lowest against any pitcher he has faced at least 15 times. Likewise, Jackson has handled Abreu better than any hitter he has faced in 15 or more at-bats. In scouted games since 2006, Abreu has hit .287 against right-handers. He hits righty fastballs (.309 BA) and changeups (.278) better than breaking pitches (.230), and is much better on pitches located above his knees (.345) than down in the zone (.201). Right-handers pitch him accordingly, but Jackson has deviated from the book by elevating more often and throwing more changeups than usual to Abreu: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Pct. of pitches to Abreu since 2006</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>All RHP</td> <td>Jackson</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>23.5</td> <td>33.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle</td> <td>26.8</td> <td>21.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Down</td> <td>49.5</td> <td>45.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitch</td> <td>All RHP</td> <td>Jackson</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Fastball</td> <td>65.4</td> <td>68.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Curve</td> <td>17.4</td> <td>8.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Changeup</td> <td>16.9</td> <td>22.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Abreu averages 4.74 pitches per plate appearance against Jackson, who prevents the Yankees' slugger from establishing a comfortable rhythm by mixing up his pitches, locations and speeds. This breakdown of a seven-pitch at-bat from their most recent game offers a good look at Jackson's approach against Abreu: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Jackson vs. Abreu - 4th inning May 13</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Count</td> <td>Pitch</td> <td>Velocity (mph)</td> <td>Location</td> <td>Action</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-0</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>89</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Strike looking</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0-1</td> <td>Change</td> <td>83</td> <td>Middle</td> <td>Strike looking</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>0-2</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>84</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>1-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>94</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>92</td> <td>Middle</td> <td>Foul</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2-2</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>82</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Ball</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>3-2</td> <td>Fastball</td> <td>93</td> <td>Down</td> <td>Groundout</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Jackson has not had good command this season, throwing only 62 percent of fastballs for strikes, below the 64 percent league average. But he has thrown strikes on 17 of 23 fastballs (74 percent) to Abreu in 2008.