Rich Harden is pitching in a big game tomorrow. Yes, it is only the middle of July but tomorrow he needs to go out and prove to the die-hard Cub fans that he will be the ace that he was in Oakland and lead the Cubs to the World Series for the first time since...well how long has it been anyways? So this is certainly a big start and the pressure will be on Mr. Harden tomorrow. Well Harden hasn't pitched in many big games before but consider this, in his 3 post season games his ERA is over 6 with 7 walks in 7 innings. Not too good.
But, in my opinion the most crucial factor in the changes Harden will have to deal with is the ballpark. We all know Wrigley is homerun heaven and on a given day a light fly ball to center can carry all the way out of the park. This means it will be crucial for Harden to keep the ball down. One problem, Harden is a predominantly fly ball pitcher. Wrigley makes Oakland look like the damn Polo Grounds. He has gotten more fly ball outs then ground outs in 9 of his 13 starts this year and even had games with over 10 fly balls. These balls can and will carry and may just find their way into that friendly netting in Wrigley. As if that isn't enough I was surprised whne looking at Hardens stats, which at first glance look dominating, that he has walked a lot of people in most of his starts. His 31 walks in 71 innings look good on paper but he has had starts where he has walked 3-4 guys in as little as 5 innings of work. If he is going to give the soft hitting Giants free runners in Wrigley and one of those fly balls does float out of the park Harden may get rattled a tad quicker then normal. I am also concerned that with the home fans roaring he may be trying to throw the ball through the mitt and dial it up with the juices flowing which leads to much less control which will boost those walk numbers. Not to mention 3 of his 5 road starts this year have been pretty poor this year including his last two starts. Yes, this is a home game but he will feel like he is on the road in this park. Remember Hardens is probably still adapting to the central time zone as he has played exclusivley in the west his whole career.
True the Giants don't do much hitting but they will be quite excited to try and ruin Rich Hardens start in a rare nationally televised game for them. The Cubs are a pretty safe bet at home but they have lost before at home and haven't been playing the best baseball lately.
Now we get to Kevin Correia who is essentially pitching for a job tomorrow in the starting rotation. Lets not forget Correia is capable of sneaking up on teams and has thrown some quality starts this year. He will benefit from his predominantly groundball style of pitching. Should be fun to watch this game and this is a game that the Cubs can't lose..... wait...this whole betting thing isn't that easy.
I like the Giants value tomorrow with the +1.5 and the ML of +240.
Not saying they will win, its just that value is their.
But, in my opinion the most crucial factor in the changes Harden will have to deal with is the ballpark. We all know Wrigley is homerun heaven and on a given day a light fly ball to center can carry all the way out of the park. This means it will be crucial for Harden to keep the ball down. One problem, Harden is a predominantly fly ball pitcher. Wrigley makes Oakland look like the damn Polo Grounds. He has gotten more fly ball outs then ground outs in 9 of his 13 starts this year and even had games with over 10 fly balls. These balls can and will carry and may just find their way into that friendly netting in Wrigley. As if that isn't enough I was surprised whne looking at Hardens stats, which at first glance look dominating, that he has walked a lot of people in most of his starts. His 31 walks in 71 innings look good on paper but he has had starts where he has walked 3-4 guys in as little as 5 innings of work. If he is going to give the soft hitting Giants free runners in Wrigley and one of those fly balls does float out of the park Harden may get rattled a tad quicker then normal. I am also concerned that with the home fans roaring he may be trying to throw the ball through the mitt and dial it up with the juices flowing which leads to much less control which will boost those walk numbers. Not to mention 3 of his 5 road starts this year have been pretty poor this year including his last two starts. Yes, this is a home game but he will feel like he is on the road in this park. Remember Hardens is probably still adapting to the central time zone as he has played exclusivley in the west his whole career.
True the Giants don't do much hitting but they will be quite excited to try and ruin Rich Hardens start in a rare nationally televised game for them. The Cubs are a pretty safe bet at home but they have lost before at home and haven't been playing the best baseball lately.
Now we get to Kevin Correia who is essentially pitching for a job tomorrow in the starting rotation. Lets not forget Correia is capable of sneaking up on teams and has thrown some quality starts this year. He will benefit from his predominantly groundball style of pitching. Should be fun to watch this game and this is a game that the Cubs can't lose..... wait...this whole betting thing isn't that easy.
I like the Giants value tomorrow with the +1.5 and the ML of +240.
Not saying they will win, its just that value is their.
