Cubs Hitters Overrated Because Of Windy Wrigley

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7/12/2008

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CUBS HITTERS OVERRATED BECAUSE OF WINDY WRIGLEY[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I was watching the Cubs/Reds slugfest Thursday afternoon, and I was trying to remember the last season where we had THIS many games where the wind was blowing out at Wrigley Field. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For whatever reason, weather conditions haven't favored the hitters this often in recent seasons. We had a few years where the wind was blowing in if it was blowing at all. You longtime bettors know that means you're supposed to bet the Under. If the wind is blowing out, you bet the Over. Oddsmakers have had trouble with this for years. The betting markets actually taught them to make the adjustment. One could argue things haven't adjusted enough.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When the wind is blowing out, oddsmakers will lift the total to around 12 or 12.5. You saw that 10-7 game with the Reds Thursday. The market total usually isn't high enough. Unless there's a ground ball pitcher on the mound, or a guy getting a lot of strikeouts, the offenses will take it Over 12 with all the home runs and doubles off the wall. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When the wind is blowing in, oddsmakers will drop the total to 7 with good pitchers, 7.5 or 8 with average or below average pitchers. If temperatures are cool, Under will be a -120 moneyline favorite because bets will still come in on the Under. Games will typically end 3-2, or one of the offenses will get shut out because it's so hard to get any extra-base hits. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As weird as it sounds at first, you're supposed to go Over 12 and Under 7 at Wrigley Field. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As I mentioned, the wind has been blowing out a lot this year. And, it's created some illusions with the hitters. You may not be aware of this but a guy actually made the National League All-Star team with this hitting line:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif].212 batting average, .316 on-base percentage, .297 slugging percentage [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]No, it's not a shortstop or a catcher who made the team because of his defense. It's a high contract guy who people think is a slugger because his full season stats are inflated because of the wind at Wrigley Field.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look at those numbers! A batting average of .212 is horrible. The on-base percentage is higher than the slugging percentage! That means, when he does get hits, they're almost all singles. The on-base is low unless we're talking about a defensive specialist. Actually, if you're defensive specialist had numbers this low you'd still have to think about replacing him. Unacceptable. Yet, this player is on the All-Star team.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Who am I talking about? Those are the road numbers this year for Kosuke Fukudome. Yes, the supposed"phenom" from Japan hasn't hit a lick when he wasn't getting a boost from Wrigley Field. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]At Wrigley:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif].357 batting average, .462 on base percentage, .539 slugging percentage[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm picking on Fukudome because of the hype, and the All-Star nod. But, this is happening to several Cubs so far.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Mark DeRosa is batting .240 on the road, .333 at home. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Aramis Ramirez is batting .235 on the road, .347 at home. Ramirez is slugging .422 on the road, .620 at home. That's almost 200 points higher in slugging![/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Alfonso Soriano before his injury was hitting .231 on the road, .337 at home. Soriano was slugging .435 on the road, .663 at home. That's MORE than 200 points higher in slugging![/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Derek Lee is slugging .471 at home, .550 on the road.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In fairness Geovany Sota, the all-star catcher, has been hitting everywhere. I don't want you to think every single player is creating illusions because of the wind. It's only ALMOST every single player. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It still amazes me that the general public is so ignorant about the home/road differences. You would have thought that everyone would have learned about this from Colorado a few years ago. Back before the Rockies started storing baseballs in a humidor to counteract the effects of altitude, their hitters had dramatic home/road splits like this. Squares (public wagerers) assumed that their great overall stats meant that they were a team of superstar hitters. They'd bet the Rockies and Over on the road, and continue to get spanked. They just never learned![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is happening with the Cubs now. Chicago is only 20-26 on the road this season. The public sees in their morning newspaper that the Cubs have the best record in the National League, so they bet them on the road at what seem to be cheap prices. It turns out the team isn't as good as it seems when not playing in the friendly confines. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NL ROAD RECORDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
Philadelphia 25-21
St. Louis 25-21
Florida 22-24
San Francisco 22-25
NY Mets 23-26
LA Dodgers 21-25
Milwaukee 21-26
Chicago Cubs 20-26
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Cubs are only 8th best in the National League on the road, out of 16 teams. Seven more teams in the American League have a better road record. That puts the Cubs right at the midpoint of the Major League standings with the 15th best road mark. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]They might seem like one of the best teams in baseball to you…and they might seem to have an offense will wall-to-wall superstar sluggers. What's actually the case is that they have guys well suited to windy conditions (flyball hitters) who are exploiting a turn in the weather this year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is very important to know if you're trying to post odds on Cubs games, or pick winners against those odds. Handicappers should:[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look to take the Cubs when the wind is blowing out at home. Though they did lose to Cincinnati Thursday, they've generally been winning handily in those conditions.[/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look to take the Over when the wind is blowing out at home because the Cubs often make a run at 10 runs all by themselves in those games. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look to take the Under if and when the wind ever turns around. This might not happen until temperatures cool in September. [/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look for spots to go against the Cubs on the road. The public keeps betting them like they're champions whenever they take the field. Chicago isn't that good yet. They're just an average road team and should be priced as such. Remember those player stats I showed you earlier. It's very difficult to win when guys in key hitting order spots have horrible batting averages![/FONT]
  • [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Look for spots to take Unders on the road because the offense isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks. Colorado used to play a lot of Unders on the road too. Bettors just kept assuming the runs would start coming and they never did. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The impact of ballpark effects has been studied for more than 20 years now by baseball statisticians. If you're serious about picking winners, you need to know what they know![/FONT]
 

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