Three Things To Watch: Sunday

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A's, Angels polar opposites at the plate

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 12, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY

1. Opposite hitting approaches for Angels, A's

The Angels and Athletics, sitting first and second in the AL West standings, respectively, conclude their three-game series Sunday. Both teams have scored runs this season at almost the same rate, 4.31 runs per game for Los Angeles and 4.37 for Oakland (through Friday).
Although they have produced almost identical results, the two teams' hitting approaches come from opposite ends of the spectrum. The free-swinging Angels lineup has the second-highest swing percentage in the AL, while the cautious A's lineup has the second-lowest. Compared to the A's and the rest of the major leagues, Angels hitters step into the box ready to swing early and often: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Swing percentage on pitches in strike zone</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Group count</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First pitch</td> <td>39.3</td> <td>42.5</td> <td>44.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Even</td> <td>81.3</td> <td>83.6</td> <td>84.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Hitter's count</td> <td>62.1</td> <td>62.8</td> <td>66.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitcher's count</td> <td>82.5</td> <td>84.2</td> <td>85.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Three balls</td> <td>75.8</td> <td>76.0</td> <td>75.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Two strikes</td> <td>87.5</td> <td>90.3</td> <td>90.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Angels are aggressive, but not reckless. On three-ball and two-strike counts, Angels hitters swing at near-average rates. The contrast between the two clubs is sharpest on off-speed pitches. Angels hitters have swung at 51 percent of non-fastballs, the most in the league, while the Athletics have swung at just 42 percent, least in the majors. The Angels challenge fielders to make defensive plays, while the A's challenge pitchers to throw strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Hitting comparison</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play pct. of swings in zone</td> <td>48.2</td> <td>48.6</td> <td>51.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase pct. </td> <td>19.2</td> <td>22.4</td> <td>25.3</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.260</td> <td>.257</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BB pct. of PAs</td> <td>9.4</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>7.5</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Regardless of their approach at the plate, aggressive or conservative, hitters still need to make hard contact. Neither team has done a great job on that end -- both rank in the lower third of the league in OPS. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Redman

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Redman should mix it up more

Colorado veteran left-hander Mark Redman posted his best ERAs in 2002 and 2003. During those two seasons, opponents batted just .269 against his mid-80s fastball. Since then, Redman has posted some ugly ERA numbers, including the 7.07 mark he brings into Shea Stadium this evening.
What is interesting is how often Redman has relied on his fastball, which is clearly not a plus pitch. This season, he's used the "heater" for 72 percent of his total pitches. That's on par with the fastball usage of Josh Beckett and John Maine, and it's a higher rate than that of many other high-voltage hurlers. The table below shows two reasons that Redman may be better off throwing more breaking pitches and changeups. He mixed things up more when he was at his best, and opponents aren't exactly crushing his off-speed stuff this season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Redman's fastball usage and BA against all pitches </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Years</td> <td>FB Usage </td> <td>Fastball BA</td> <td>Non-fastball BA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>72 percent</td> <td>.342</td> <td>.208</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2002-03</td> <td>60 percent</td> <td>.269</td> <td>.239</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Several pitchers around the league fall into the "slow-throwing lefty" category. Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer and Arizona's Doug Davis are two examples of light-throwing left-handers who are having solid seasons. Moyer and Davis both use their fastball just 62 percent of the time. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Lincecum

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Hanging curveballs hurting Lincecum

Heading into his June 16 start against the Tigers, Tim Lincecum was 8-1 with a subterranean 1.99 ERA. That night, the hot-hitting Marcus Thames took him deep twice, and Detroit scored four earned runs in seven innings. He hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start before then, but now has done so in three of his past five starts -- a span in which his ERA has been an earthly 4.65, leaving his season mark at 2.66 entering Sunday's matchup against the Cubs.
On June 16, we wrote about Lincecum, noting that he was using his slider and changeup more frequently in 2008 than he had done in 2007, when his curve was his out pitch of choice. Particularly in two-strike counts, Lincecum was essentially ignoring the curve, throwing it 4 percent of the time, compared to nearly 40 percent combined for his slider and changeup. Since then, Lincecum has used his curveball in key situations more frequently. In his past five starts, the fireballer has thrown his curve 16 percent of the time on two-strike pitches, compared to 19 percent and 15 percent for the slider and changeup, respectively, with the following results: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lincecum in two-strike counts since June 16</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Curve</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>Change</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.357</td> <td>.077</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>23.8</td> <td>66.7</td> <td>42.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct. of ABs ending on pitch</td> <td>42.9</td> <td>84.6</td> <td>53.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>.286</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The slider continues to be an extremely tough pitch for batters to handle, and throwing more curves on two-strike counts is not helping Lincecum. He gets in trouble with his curve only when he leaves it up. In 10 at-bats ending on curves down in the zone in his past five games, opponents have just one hit and six strikeouts. But on curves that Lincecum hangs in the middle of the zone, hitters are 3-for-4 with three home runs. Overall, the gopher ball has been his Achilles heel during his current swoon. He had allowed only three long balls all season up until June 16, but he's yielded four in his past five games. Those four homers have accounted for seven of the 16 earned runs in that span. Through his "struggles," Lincecum has remained dominant and fanned at least eight batters in three of his past five outings. Watch to see if he continues to use the curve today, or if he goes back to his usual out pitches, the slider and change.
 

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Daily Notes for Sunday: Aces or faces ... not much in between

By Adam Madison
ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> July 12, 2008, 3:29 PM
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Because Sunday's pitching matchups consist mostly of No. 1 or No. 2 pitchers and marginal innings-eaters (or worse), fantasy owners face a shortage of appealing spot starters. But in the final game before the All-Star break, there are a number of marquee matchups: aces Brandon Webb and Cole Hamels, fireballers Tim Lincecum and Ryan Dempster, and breakout pitchers Joe Saunders and Justin Duchscherer. Reds pitching prospect Homer Bailey is also expected to be recalled in time to replace Aaron Harang against the Brewers, matching up with new NL Central ace CC Sabathia.




Injury report
Out
Aaron Harang, SP, Reds (forearm)
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks (oblique)

Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (knee)
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox (forearm)
J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox (back)
Brian Giles, OF, Padres (hamstring)
Jose Guillen, OF, Royals (neck)
Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers (hamstring)
Alex Rios, OF, Blue Jays (personal)
Randy Winn, OF, Giants (knee)
Dmitri Young, 1B, Nationals (back)

Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Carlos Pena seems primed for a monster second half; he has a six-game hitting streak and has four multi-hit games in 14 games since coming off the disabled list, compared to eight in his previous 57 games. Though Pena usually struggles against left-handed pitchers, he faces Jeremy Sowers, who has allowed four home runs and a 1.106 OPS in 42 at-bats against lefty hitters this season. … The Diamondbacks are the majors' worst hitting team on the road (.658 OPS), and they face one of the league's best in Cole Hamels. Give your D-backs hitters Sunday off. … The All-Star break can't come soon enough for Hunter Pence, who is hitting .205 since the start of June. You can't even start Pence against lefties; after hitting .354 against them last year, he's batting .253 with just three walks this season. … Ian Snell will be making his second start since coming off the disabled list; he was hit around by the struggling Astros in the first. Various Cardinals bats, including Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, are strong starts. … In 243 career at-bats against lefties, Matt Kemp is hitting .337 with eight home runs. Make sure he's in your lineup when he faces Andrew Miller on Sunday. … Last year, Carlos Delgado had just a .740 OPS before the All-Star break, but he got hot in July and regained some of his value by hitting .285 with 10 home runs in 56 games after the break. Delgado is getting hot again this July, with two home runs and a .372 average, and for his career he has been a strong second-half player. Delgado owners, cross your fingers and hope it continues for the 36-year-old.
Pitchers: Tim Lincecum held the Cubs to three runs in six innings, with eight strikeouts, on July 3, but the Cubs have the majors' best OPS at home (.888). Lincecum has allowed four or more runs in three of his past five starts, too, so it makes for a good time to bench Lincecum, ace or not. … Joe Saunders should have a walk in the park against the A's, and he has a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in two previous starts against them. But win No. 13 will be hard to come by against Justin Duchscherer and his microscopic 1.78 ERA. … The Marlins have struck out 41 more times than any other team -- boding well for Billingsley since his strikeouts can limit the effect of the baserunners he puts on. While the Marlins also have the most home runs in the majors, Billingsley has allowed just eight all season, and he held the Marlins' offense to just three hits and one run in seven innings in an earlier matchup.
Waiver-wire pickups
fantasy_g_ramirez_300.jpg
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Wiry second baseman Alexei Ramirez has been on fire of late, in more than one category.


Hitters: Alexei Ramirez is hitting .331 in 187 at-bats since the start of May, with increasing power, and though his 30-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio is worrisome, you could do worse, especially if he can qualify for shortstop this season (he has seven games played at the position). … With 14 home runs and eight stolen bases, Mike Cameron is making a run for a 20/20 season despite having missed 36 games this season. He's available in nearly 80 percent of leagues because of his low average, but he's hitting .345 in July while showing the same power, and he also has swiped two bases. Pitchers: There's no reason Randy Wolf should be owned in just 28 percent of leagues when he's such a predictable spot starter. After holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings and striking out seven, Wolf has a 2.54 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 10 starts in Petco Park. … There are few viable spot starts Sunday, so while Jorge Campillo might be a bit of a stretch, he's worth a look against the Padres, who may be without Brian Giles and his .394 OBP. … Mike Pelfrey has allowed one run or less in three of his past four starts, with 24 2/3 innings and 21 strikeouts in that span. With a 2.68 ERA at Shea Stadium this year, and facing the Rockies away from Coors, Pelfrey is a fine option.
Weather concerns
Toronto (Yankees-Blue Jays) and Milwaukee (Reds-Brewers) are weatherproof, and the only major weather concern of the day is the Cardinals-Pirates game in Pittsburgh, where the forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms. … Rays-Indians and White Sox-Rangers both have a 20-to-30 percent chance of rain.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com.
 

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