A's, Angels polar opposites at the plate
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 12, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY
1. Opposite hitting approaches for Angels, A's
The Angels and Athletics, sitting first and second in the AL West standings, respectively, conclude their three-game series Sunday. Both teams have scored runs this season at almost the same rate, 4.31 runs per game for Los Angeles and 4.37 for Oakland (through Friday).
Although they have produced almost identical results, the two teams' hitting approaches come from opposite ends of the spectrum. The free-swinging Angels lineup has the second-highest swing percentage in the AL, while the cautious A's lineup has the second-lowest. Compared to the A's and the rest of the major leagues, Angels hitters step into the box ready to swing early and often: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Swing percentage on pitches in strike zone</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Group count</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First pitch</td> <td>39.3</td> <td>42.5</td> <td>44.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Even</td> <td>81.3</td> <td>83.6</td> <td>84.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Hitter's count</td> <td>62.1</td> <td>62.8</td> <td>66.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitcher's count</td> <td>82.5</td> <td>84.2</td> <td>85.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Three balls</td> <td>75.8</td> <td>76.0</td> <td>75.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Two strikes</td> <td>87.5</td> <td>90.3</td> <td>90.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Angels are aggressive, but not reckless. On three-ball and two-strike counts, Angels hitters swing at near-average rates. The contrast between the two clubs is sharpest on off-speed pitches. Angels hitters have swung at 51 percent of non-fastballs, the most in the league, while the Athletics have swung at just 42 percent, least in the majors. The Angels challenge fielders to make defensive plays, while the A's challenge pitchers to throw strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Hitting comparison</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play pct. of swings in zone</td> <td>48.2</td> <td>48.6</td> <td>51.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase pct. </td> <td>19.2</td> <td>22.4</td> <td>25.3</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.260</td> <td>.257</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BB pct. of PAs</td> <td>9.4</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>7.5</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Regardless of their approach at the plate, aggressive or conservative, hitters still need to make hard contact. Neither team has done a great job on that end -- both rank in the lower third of the league in OPS. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Redman
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Redman should mix it up more
Colorado veteran left-hander Mark Redman posted his best ERAs in 2002 and 2003. During those two seasons, opponents batted just .269 against his mid-80s fastball. Since then, Redman has posted some ugly ERA numbers, including the 7.07 mark he brings into Shea Stadium this evening.
What is interesting is how often Redman has relied on his fastball, which is clearly not a plus pitch. This season, he's used the "heater" for 72 percent of his total pitches. That's on par with the fastball usage of Josh Beckett and John Maine, and it's a higher rate than that of many other high-voltage hurlers. The table below shows two reasons that Redman may be better off throwing more breaking pitches and changeups. He mixed things up more when he was at his best, and opponents aren't exactly crushing his off-speed stuff this season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Redman's fastball usage and BA against all pitches </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Years</td> <td>FB Usage </td> <td>Fastball BA</td> <td>Non-fastball BA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>72 percent</td> <td>.342</td> <td>.208</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2002-03</td> <td>60 percent</td> <td>.269</td> <td>.239</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Several pitchers around the league fall into the "slow-throwing lefty" category. Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer and Arizona's Doug Davis are two examples of light-throwing left-handers who are having solid seasons. Moyer and Davis both use their fastball just 62 percent of the time. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Lincecum
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Hanging curveballs hurting Lincecum
Heading into his June 16 start against the Tigers, Tim Lincecum was 8-1 with a subterranean 1.99 ERA. That night, the hot-hitting Marcus Thames took him deep twice, and Detroit scored four earned runs in seven innings. He hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start before then, but now has done so in three of his past five starts -- a span in which his ERA has been an earthly 4.65, leaving his season mark at 2.66 entering Sunday's matchup against the Cubs.
On June 16, we wrote about Lincecum, noting that he was using his slider and changeup more frequently in 2008 than he had done in 2007, when his curve was his out pitch of choice. Particularly in two-strike counts, Lincecum was essentially ignoring the curve, throwing it 4 percent of the time, compared to nearly 40 percent combined for his slider and changeup. Since then, Lincecum has used his curveball in key situations more frequently. In his past five starts, the fireballer has thrown his curve 16 percent of the time on two-strike pitches, compared to 19 percent and 15 percent for the slider and changeup, respectively, with the following results: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lincecum in two-strike counts since June 16</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Curve</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>Change</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.357</td> <td>.077</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>23.8</td> <td>66.7</td> <td>42.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct. of ABs ending on pitch</td> <td>42.9</td> <td>84.6</td> <td>53.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>.286</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The slider continues to be an extremely tough pitch for batters to handle, and throwing more curves on two-strike counts is not helping Lincecum. He gets in trouble with his curve only when he leaves it up. In 10 at-bats ending on curves down in the zone in his past five games, opponents have just one hit and six strikeouts. But on curves that Lincecum hangs in the middle of the zone, hitters are 3-for-4 with three home runs. Overall, the gopher ball has been his Achilles heel during his current swoon. He had allowed only three long balls all season up until June 16, but he's yielded four in his past five games. Those four homers have accounted for seven of the 16 earned runs in that span. Through his "struggles," Lincecum has remained dominant and fanned at least eight batters in three of his past five outings. Watch to see if he continues to use the curve today, or if he goes back to his usual out pitches, the slider and change.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 12, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY
1. Opposite hitting approaches for Angels, A's
The Angels and Athletics, sitting first and second in the AL West standings, respectively, conclude their three-game series Sunday. Both teams have scored runs this season at almost the same rate, 4.31 runs per game for Los Angeles and 4.37 for Oakland (through Friday).
Although they have produced almost identical results, the two teams' hitting approaches come from opposite ends of the spectrum. The free-swinging Angels lineup has the second-highest swing percentage in the AL, while the cautious A's lineup has the second-lowest. Compared to the A's and the rest of the major leagues, Angels hitters step into the box ready to swing early and often: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Swing percentage on pitches in strike zone</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Group count</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First pitch</td> <td>39.3</td> <td>42.5</td> <td>44.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Even</td> <td>81.3</td> <td>83.6</td> <td>84.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Hitter's count</td> <td>62.1</td> <td>62.8</td> <td>66.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitcher's count</td> <td>82.5</td> <td>84.2</td> <td>85.0</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Three balls</td> <td>75.8</td> <td>76.0</td> <td>75.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Two strikes</td> <td>87.5</td> <td>90.3</td> <td>90.3</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The Angels are aggressive, but not reckless. On three-ball and two-strike counts, Angels hitters swing at near-average rates. The contrast between the two clubs is sharpest on off-speed pitches. Angels hitters have swung at 51 percent of non-fastballs, the most in the league, while the Athletics have swung at just 42 percent, least in the majors. The Angels challenge fielders to make defensive plays, while the A's challenge pitchers to throw strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Hitting comparison</td> </tr><tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Athletics</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>Angels</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play pct. of swings in zone</td> <td>48.2</td> <td>48.6</td> <td>51.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Chase pct. </td> <td>19.2</td> <td>22.4</td> <td>25.3</td> </tr><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.260</td> <td>.257</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BB pct. of PAs</td> <td>9.4</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>7.5</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Regardless of their approach at the plate, aggressive or conservative, hitters still need to make hard contact. Neither team has done a great job on that end -- both rank in the lower third of the league in OPS. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Redman should mix it up more
Colorado veteran left-hander Mark Redman posted his best ERAs in 2002 and 2003. During those two seasons, opponents batted just .269 against his mid-80s fastball. Since then, Redman has posted some ugly ERA numbers, including the 7.07 mark he brings into Shea Stadium this evening.
What is interesting is how often Redman has relied on his fastball, which is clearly not a plus pitch. This season, he's used the "heater" for 72 percent of his total pitches. That's on par with the fastball usage of Josh Beckett and John Maine, and it's a higher rate than that of many other high-voltage hurlers. The table below shows two reasons that Redman may be better off throwing more breaking pitches and changeups. He mixed things up more when he was at his best, and opponents aren't exactly crushing his off-speed stuff this season: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="350"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="4">Redman's fastball usage and BA against all pitches </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Years</td> <td>FB Usage </td> <td>Fastball BA</td> <td>Non-fastball BA</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2008</td> <td>72 percent</td> <td>.342</td> <td>.208</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2002-03</td> <td>60 percent</td> <td>.269</td> <td>.239</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Several pitchers around the league fall into the "slow-throwing lefty" category. Philadelphia's Jamie Moyer and Arizona's Doug Davis are two examples of light-throwing left-handers who are having solid seasons. Moyer and Davis both use their fastball just 62 percent of the time. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Hanging curveballs hurting Lincecum
Heading into his June 16 start against the Tigers, Tim Lincecum was 8-1 with a subterranean 1.99 ERA. That night, the hot-hitting Marcus Thames took him deep twice, and Detroit scored four earned runs in seven innings. He hadn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start before then, but now has done so in three of his past five starts -- a span in which his ERA has been an earthly 4.65, leaving his season mark at 2.66 entering Sunday's matchup against the Cubs.
On June 16, we wrote about Lincecum, noting that he was using his slider and changeup more frequently in 2008 than he had done in 2007, when his curve was his out pitch of choice. Particularly in two-strike counts, Lincecum was essentially ignoring the curve, throwing it 4 percent of the time, compared to nearly 40 percent combined for his slider and changeup. Since then, Lincecum has used his curveball in key situations more frequently. In his past five starts, the fireballer has thrown his curve 16 percent of the time on two-strike pitches, compared to 19 percent and 15 percent for the slider and changeup, respectively, with the following results: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Lincecum in two-strike counts since June 16</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Curve</td> <td>Slider</td> <td>Change</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against</td> <td>.357</td> <td>.077</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>23.8</td> <td>66.7</td> <td>42.9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct. of ABs ending on pitch</td> <td>42.9</td> <td>84.6</td> <td>53.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>.286</td> <td>.000</td> <td>.231</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> The slider continues to be an extremely tough pitch for batters to handle, and throwing more curves on two-strike counts is not helping Lincecum. He gets in trouble with his curve only when he leaves it up. In 10 at-bats ending on curves down in the zone in his past five games, opponents have just one hit and six strikeouts. But on curves that Lincecum hangs in the middle of the zone, hitters are 3-for-4 with three home runs. Overall, the gopher ball has been his Achilles heel during his current swoon. He had allowed only three long balls all season up until June 16, but he's yielded four in his past five games. Those four homers have accounted for seven of the 16 earned runs in that span. Through his "struggles," Lincecum has remained dominant and fanned at least eight batters in three of his past five outings. Watch to see if he continues to use the curve today, or if he goes back to his usual out pitches, the slider and change.