[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]MLB RUN-DIFFERENTIALS AT THE ALL-STAR BREAK[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I know most of you will be taking a few days off from betting here during the Major League Baseball All-Star break. I wanted to give you some stats to study while you were relaxing at the beach, pool, or in your air-conditioned study.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've compiled the "run differential" for all 30 teams through Sunday's action. This is simply how many runs each team scored minus how many runs they allowed. It can often be a better indicator for true quality than won-lost records. The standings can be misleading because some teams have either had great luck or horrible luck in one-run games. History has shown that most teams will play toward what their run differential is suggesting rather than what their won-lost record indicates. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I couldn't decide whether to run these by division, so you could see how those races shape up, or by league, so you could get a sense of the championship picture. I finally decided to do BOTH! I'll post the numbers by division. Then, in each league I'll show the order of those with positive differentials. Those teams will be your most likely championship contenders. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's start in the best league, and the best division...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL EAST
Boston: +99
Tampa Bay: +46
NY Yankees: +24
Toronto: +23
Baltimore: -10
This matches more with the way people are betting. Boston has a huge edge over the rest of the pack. The public is betting Boston like they've already won the World Championship again. Tampa Bay may have been ahead in the standings for the past couple of weeks. Sharps were betting the Rays hard much of the season. The public doesn't wouldn't get on the bandwagon. You'll see in a minute that the Yankees and Blue Jays grade out well compared to the rest of the league. They're still dangerous teams who can make a run at the playoffs if a few of the contenders start to slump. Tampa Bay just lost six in a row, so they're already slumping. Frankly, -10 is a lot better than most people expected for Baltimore this year. They were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. That would mean -50 or so at this point A great division. There's not much value in betting Boston or the Yankees ever. Look for spots where you can take the other teams. The public just hasn't realized how strong this whole group is because they focus so much on the two marquee franchises. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox: +83
Minnesota: +16
Cleveland: +8
Detroit: +5
Kansas City: -61
Chicago hasn't been a fluke in the first half of the season. They're not quite as good as Boston. But, they're much better than most everyone else. They're really dominant in this division, even though your newspaper standings show the Sox and Twins being close together. Minnesota has had some good fortune in close games, and needed to catch fire in recent weeks just to get into the race. Chicago's been putting up runs, shutting down opponents, and expressing their superiority all season. Note that Cleveland has a positive differential even though they have a bad record. You saw this past weekend that they may be ready for a big second half. The Tribe lost a lot of close games, and couldn't find any offense when they were getting great pitching. They may have fixed that problem in recent days. Detroit may think of themselves as contenders. Dropping three of four at home to Minnesota was a horrible way to end the first half of the season though. You can see their differential isn't very impressive. They're not just fourth in this division...they'd be fifth if they were over in the AL East. A lot of teams are playing better ball than Detroit this year. And, that hot streak that came mostly against the National League and Seattle disappeared when their normal schedule started up again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL WEST
Oakland: +65
LA Angels: +21
Texas: -21
Seattle: -63
These numbers are a little misleading because Oakland's played a lot more home games than road games. It's easy to pile up a good differential if most of your games are at home! They'll come back to the pack soon. The big news here is that the Los Angeles Angels don't line up with Boston and Chicago. LA has won a lot of close games, which is not something you can count on doing for an entire season. Remember that come playoff time. The public thinks there's an "ability" to win close games. The sharps generally bet against good fortune continuing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE ELITE
Boston: +99
Chicago White Sox: +83
Oakland: +65
Tampa Bay: +46
NY Yankees: +24
Toronto: +23
LA Angels: +21
Minnesota: +16
That's eight teams battling for four spots, and each division must be represented at least once. Also note that the Angels, who rank 7th there, are actually in the driver's seat for their division. I'm interested to see what happens in the AL West the rest of the way. The Angels have had good fortune in close games. Oakland's had a friendly schedule. Will that bring Texas back into the race? The run differentials say no. But, SOMEBODY has to win the AL West. Clearly the Red Sox and White Sox are the class of the league right now based on those stats. Oakland's friendly schedule disqualifies them from true consideration in a superpower class. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's move to the National League...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL EAST
Philadelphia: +78
NY Mets: +39
Atlanta: +38
Florida: -28
Washington: -117
A couple of teams jump out here. Atlanta looks like a league power even though they're an afterthought in your newspaper standings. They've had about five years' worth of one-run losses already this season. That dug a hole that might be tough to get out of. Just remember when you handicap that this team is better than it seems, and they'll be even more of a value team if they can get some people healthy. Florida's on the other end of the spectrum. They're currently in the pennant race even with a lousy run differential. You don't see many teams making a run at the postseason while getting outscored. Arizona happened to pull it off last year. Most teams fall back to their differential rather than suddenly winning blowouts so their stats match their record. I expect to see Florida fade in the second half, though they've managed to avoid that so far. What about the Mets? They're really coming on strong lately, and are probably better than that run differential suggests. You don't get many bargains betting on the Mets because they're a New York team. Those of you who want to fade them might try to pick a different squad to try that on for the time being. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL CENTRAL
Chicago: +105
St. Louis: +23
Milwaukee: +13
Houston: -44
Cincinnati: -52
Pittsburgh: -68
The Cubs really jump out there obviously. That's a little misleading because they've won some high scoring games when the wind was blowing out at home. I talked about that this past weekend. They're not as good as their stats because they've just been taking advantage of conditions that suit them. The wind wasn't blowing out Sunday and they lost to San Francisco 4-1. Still, if you make a mental adjustment for that, you'd still have them way ahead of the second and third place teams here. I expect quite a race the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if a team from this division wins the league championship. It's reminiscent of last year's NL West, where Arizona won the division, Colorado and San Diego tied for the Wildcard...then Colorado went on to play Boston in the World Series. Any of the big three here could do that. Don't forget that Milwaukee just added C.C. Sabathia. Their run differential should get better. Yes, Chicago added Rich Harden...but the wind is likely to start blowing in rather than out in the latter stages of the season. Should I even mention the teams at the bottom? At least Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are evenly matched![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL WEST
LA Dodgers: +10
Arizona: +4
San Francisco: -58
Colorado: -88
San Diego: -91
This stat says the Dodgers are the best team in the division. Of course, a low number like +10 isn't that impressive. You don't have to be impressive to win the NL West. The bottom three teams are really bad. Remember that these teams play a lot against each other...and that all the games against each other cancel out. That means these five teams have been outscored by more than 200 runs when playing the other divisions. This was the power group of the National League in 2007, with the NL winner and three teams who got a sniff of the postseason (San Diego lost a one-game playoff for the Wildcard). You really can go from champ to chump very quickly in this sport. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE ELITE
Chicago: +105
Philadelphia: +78
NY Mets: +39
Atlanta: +38
St. Louis: +23
Milwaukee: +13
LA Dodgers: +10
Arizona: +4[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Well, I said that Chicago has a misleading differential because of home blowouts. Atlanta can't seem to get its act together in close games. There's not really much there to get excited about. I do anticipate some close races in the second half of the season. Monitoring this stat will give you context on those races. Keep an eye on the Mets, Cards, and Brewers to see if they can climb the ladder. Maybe one team in the West will figure out how to play. I may not have a chance to check back on this stat because we'll be talking football very soon. I advise you to keep a running tally on your own so you can properly evaluate all 30 Major League teams. [/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]MLB RUN-DIFFERENTIALS AT THE ALL-STAR BREAK[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I know most of you will be taking a few days off from betting here during the Major League Baseball All-Star break. I wanted to give you some stats to study while you were relaxing at the beach, pool, or in your air-conditioned study.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I've compiled the "run differential" for all 30 teams through Sunday's action. This is simply how many runs each team scored minus how many runs they allowed. It can often be a better indicator for true quality than won-lost records. The standings can be misleading because some teams have either had great luck or horrible luck in one-run games. History has shown that most teams will play toward what their run differential is suggesting rather than what their won-lost record indicates. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I couldn't decide whether to run these by division, so you could see how those races shape up, or by league, so you could get a sense of the championship picture. I finally decided to do BOTH! I'll post the numbers by division. Then, in each league I'll show the order of those with positive differentials. Those teams will be your most likely championship contenders. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's start in the best league, and the best division...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL EAST
Boston: +99
Tampa Bay: +46
NY Yankees: +24
Toronto: +23
Baltimore: -10
This matches more with the way people are betting. Boston has a huge edge over the rest of the pack. The public is betting Boston like they've already won the World Championship again. Tampa Bay may have been ahead in the standings for the past couple of weeks. Sharps were betting the Rays hard much of the season. The public doesn't wouldn't get on the bandwagon. You'll see in a minute that the Yankees and Blue Jays grade out well compared to the rest of the league. They're still dangerous teams who can make a run at the playoffs if a few of the contenders start to slump. Tampa Bay just lost six in a row, so they're already slumping. Frankly, -10 is a lot better than most people expected for Baltimore this year. They were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league. That would mean -50 or so at this point A great division. There's not much value in betting Boston or the Yankees ever. Look for spots where you can take the other teams. The public just hasn't realized how strong this whole group is because they focus so much on the two marquee franchises. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox: +83
Minnesota: +16
Cleveland: +8
Detroit: +5
Kansas City: -61
Chicago hasn't been a fluke in the first half of the season. They're not quite as good as Boston. But, they're much better than most everyone else. They're really dominant in this division, even though your newspaper standings show the Sox and Twins being close together. Minnesota has had some good fortune in close games, and needed to catch fire in recent weeks just to get into the race. Chicago's been putting up runs, shutting down opponents, and expressing their superiority all season. Note that Cleveland has a positive differential even though they have a bad record. You saw this past weekend that they may be ready for a big second half. The Tribe lost a lot of close games, and couldn't find any offense when they were getting great pitching. They may have fixed that problem in recent days. Detroit may think of themselves as contenders. Dropping three of four at home to Minnesota was a horrible way to end the first half of the season though. You can see their differential isn't very impressive. They're not just fourth in this division...they'd be fifth if they were over in the AL East. A lot of teams are playing better ball than Detroit this year. And, that hot streak that came mostly against the National League and Seattle disappeared when their normal schedule started up again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AL WEST
Oakland: +65
LA Angels: +21
Texas: -21
Seattle: -63
These numbers are a little misleading because Oakland's played a lot more home games than road games. It's easy to pile up a good differential if most of your games are at home! They'll come back to the pack soon. The big news here is that the Los Angeles Angels don't line up with Boston and Chicago. LA has won a lot of close games, which is not something you can count on doing for an entire season. Remember that come playoff time. The public thinks there's an "ability" to win close games. The sharps generally bet against good fortune continuing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE ELITE
Boston: +99
Chicago White Sox: +83
Oakland: +65
Tampa Bay: +46
NY Yankees: +24
Toronto: +23
LA Angels: +21
Minnesota: +16
That's eight teams battling for four spots, and each division must be represented at least once. Also note that the Angels, who rank 7th there, are actually in the driver's seat for their division. I'm interested to see what happens in the AL West the rest of the way. The Angels have had good fortune in close games. Oakland's had a friendly schedule. Will that bring Texas back into the race? The run differentials say no. But, SOMEBODY has to win the AL West. Clearly the Red Sox and White Sox are the class of the league right now based on those stats. Oakland's friendly schedule disqualifies them from true consideration in a superpower class. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Let's move to the National League...[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL EAST
Philadelphia: +78
NY Mets: +39
Atlanta: +38
Florida: -28
Washington: -117
A couple of teams jump out here. Atlanta looks like a league power even though they're an afterthought in your newspaper standings. They've had about five years' worth of one-run losses already this season. That dug a hole that might be tough to get out of. Just remember when you handicap that this team is better than it seems, and they'll be even more of a value team if they can get some people healthy. Florida's on the other end of the spectrum. They're currently in the pennant race even with a lousy run differential. You don't see many teams making a run at the postseason while getting outscored. Arizona happened to pull it off last year. Most teams fall back to their differential rather than suddenly winning blowouts so their stats match their record. I expect to see Florida fade in the second half, though they've managed to avoid that so far. What about the Mets? They're really coming on strong lately, and are probably better than that run differential suggests. You don't get many bargains betting on the Mets because they're a New York team. Those of you who want to fade them might try to pick a different squad to try that on for the time being. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL CENTRAL
Chicago: +105
St. Louis: +23
Milwaukee: +13
Houston: -44
Cincinnati: -52
Pittsburgh: -68
The Cubs really jump out there obviously. That's a little misleading because they've won some high scoring games when the wind was blowing out at home. I talked about that this past weekend. They're not as good as their stats because they've just been taking advantage of conditions that suit them. The wind wasn't blowing out Sunday and they lost to San Francisco 4-1. Still, if you make a mental adjustment for that, you'd still have them way ahead of the second and third place teams here. I expect quite a race the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if a team from this division wins the league championship. It's reminiscent of last year's NL West, where Arizona won the division, Colorado and San Diego tied for the Wildcard...then Colorado went on to play Boston in the World Series. Any of the big three here could do that. Don't forget that Milwaukee just added C.C. Sabathia. Their run differential should get better. Yes, Chicago added Rich Harden...but the wind is likely to start blowing in rather than out in the latter stages of the season. Should I even mention the teams at the bottom? At least Houston, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh are evenly matched![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NL WEST
LA Dodgers: +10
Arizona: +4
San Francisco: -58
Colorado: -88
San Diego: -91
This stat says the Dodgers are the best team in the division. Of course, a low number like +10 isn't that impressive. You don't have to be impressive to win the NL West. The bottom three teams are really bad. Remember that these teams play a lot against each other...and that all the games against each other cancel out. That means these five teams have been outscored by more than 200 runs when playing the other divisions. This was the power group of the National League in 2007, with the NL winner and three teams who got a sniff of the postseason (San Diego lost a one-game playoff for the Wildcard). You really can go from champ to chump very quickly in this sport. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE ELITE
Chicago: +105
Philadelphia: +78
NY Mets: +39
Atlanta: +38
St. Louis: +23
Milwaukee: +13
LA Dodgers: +10
Arizona: +4[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Well, I said that Chicago has a misleading differential because of home blowouts. Atlanta can't seem to get its act together in close games. There's not really much there to get excited about. I do anticipate some close races in the second half of the season. Monitoring this stat will give you context on those races. Keep an eye on the Mets, Cards, and Brewers to see if they can climb the ladder. Maybe one team in the West will figure out how to play. I may not have a chance to check back on this stat because we'll be talking football very soon. I advise you to keep a running tally on your own so you can properly evaluate all 30 Major League teams. [/FONT]
