7/17/2008
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MLB EARNERS AND BURNERS HEADING INTO SECOND HALF[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers always have an eye on the bottom line, so they pay constant attention to the money teams in major league baseball. They don't necessarily adjust their lines based on which teams are "earning" and which teams are "burning" money for their backers. They see the extremes as "mistakes" the public is making about the teams...and they monitor the action coming into the sportsbook to see if those mistakes are continuing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a handicapper, YOU should be trying to exploit the mistakes yourself. If the public isn't taking the Minnesota Twins or Tampa Bay Rays seriously, but those teams keep winning, then you should be exploiting the value. If the public doesn't believe that the NL West has really become one of the worst divisions ever, you need to step in and make some plays against those overrated teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to look at how all 30 teams stood in terms of their "betting units" won and lost so far this season. My totals might be off a little from yours if you're keeping your own. Some people use closing lines, others use widely available lines before apex, some just use whatever they wrote down in their schedules during the day. To me, the exact number doesn't matter that much anyway. It's the general theme of whether a team has been overrated or underrated. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've rounded these off to the nearest dollar. Assume that a person is betting a dollar per game on each team in every game they've played this season. Here are the "earners" and "burners" up to the 2008 All-Star Break. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE EARNERS
Minnesota: +17 units
Tampa Bay: +13 units
Texas: +13 units
Los Angeles Angels: +11 units
Chicago White Sox: +11 units
Boston: +7 units
Oakland: +7 units
Baltimore: +4 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay started getting a lot of press when they passed Boston and New York in the AL East standings. Minnesota's actually been the better value team so far. Both have made their backers a lot of money. Texas is a third team that's not a division leader who's nailed double digits in profits. It's important for you to remember that the best money teams aren't necessarily those who win the most often...it's the teams who win more often than expectations. Las Vegas odds are based on expectations. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Note that the first place teams all show up well here. It's tough to make money on Boston because everyone knows they're so good. They've managed to earn a profit so far anyway. Chicago and Los Angeles are both up about 11 units to date. Put Chicago on your list of surprise teams too. The AL Central was supposed to be a race between Detroit and Cleveland. You'll be seeing their names momentarily. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll often hear TV handicappers say that you can't make money betting first place teams in any sport. The lines are too high for those teams to show a profit. I think this is more true in the second half of the season rather than the first. Think back to last football season, where New England and Dallas kept cashing all of their tickets in the first two months, then couldn't scale their tall numbers after that. I'd be a bit careful asking all of the teams on the list up above to keep winning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There aren't any sharps who got rich by asking -180 favorites to win two-thirds of their games. Sharps will ride hot teams early in a season as they're climbing their way up the ladder. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE BURNERS
Cleveland: -23 units
Seattle: -21 units
New York Yankees: -10 units
Detroit: -8 units
Toronto: -8 units
Kansas City: -3 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You can see Cleveland and Detroit show up among the four worst money teams in the American League. The New York Yankees are there too. Yankees fans never learn that there's no value betting on their team...particularly in the first half of the season. The Yanks did get hot in the second half last year. Maybe they'll do that again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What's amazing about Cleveland is that they're this far down even after sweeping Tampa Bay last weekend! It was about -27 units before that series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll note there are fewer teams on the losers list than on the winners list. That's because of Interleague play. The American League just killed the National League this season. That boosted the profit/loss ledger for many of the teams listed so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE EARNERS
Florida: +14 units
Chicago Cubs: +12 units
St. Louis: +11 units
Milwaukee: +4 units
Pittsburgh: +2 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Florida's the only real "surprise" team in the National League so far. Well, at least in terms of "good" surprises. There have been a lot of bad surprises! The Marlins were supposed to be battling Washington for last place in the NL East. Instead, they've been hanging around the top of the division all year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chicago is another first place team that's been able to clear some big price hurdles. Like Boston, they have a great record at home so far. They'll have to maintain that pace to keep rewarding their backers. I'm skeptical they'll be able to pull it off. They may still show a profit. It's going to be tougher at the second half prices they'll be seeing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are 16 teams in the NL, yet only five are making money for backers. Pittsburgh's one bad series away from falling off the list too. Just a bad year in the "senior circuit" this season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE BURNERS
San Diego: -24 units
Colorado: -18 units
Washington: -16 units
Atlanta: -12 units
Arizona: -11 units
Los Angeles Dodgers: -9 units
San Francisco: -8 units
Cincinnati: -5 units
Houston: -2 units
NY Mets: -2 units
Philadelphia: -1 unit[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Talk about BAD surprises! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego and Colorado played each other in a playoff for the Wildcard spot last year. They're the two worst teams in the league money-wise. Arizona won the division that houses San Diego and Colorado. They're down double digits this year even though they're leading it again. In fact, the FIVE teams in the NL West are down about 70 units! How bad would the other divisions be if they didn't get to pad their records every so often against the West?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The New York Mets were down double digits before going on a long winning streak to end the first half. They're going to be expensive to take the rest of the way. But, they do have a look about them that suggests the team is tired of underachieving. Philadelphia will need to get off this list if they want to challenge the Mets in the East. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sheer volume of losers in this league points to the differences between the AL and NL right now. Trading for CC Sabathia and Rich Harden will help. About 10 more trades like that and things may get closer to even![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I do think we'll see some dramatic changes on those lists between now and the end of the season. At least one team in each league will catch fire and close with a great run. I also think at least one of the contenders in each league will run into a wall and fall back to earth. Maybe more than one in the American League. Interleague play is finished, meaning they'll all be beating up on each other for two-and-a-half months. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In short, some lessons from the list:[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MLB EARNERS AND BURNERS HEADING INTO SECOND HALF[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oddsmakers always have an eye on the bottom line, so they pay constant attention to the money teams in major league baseball. They don't necessarily adjust their lines based on which teams are "earning" and which teams are "burning" money for their backers. They see the extremes as "mistakes" the public is making about the teams...and they monitor the action coming into the sportsbook to see if those mistakes are continuing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a handicapper, YOU should be trying to exploit the mistakes yourself. If the public isn't taking the Minnesota Twins or Tampa Bay Rays seriously, but those teams keep winning, then you should be exploiting the value. If the public doesn't believe that the NL West has really become one of the worst divisions ever, you need to step in and make some plays against those overrated teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to look at how all 30 teams stood in terms of their "betting units" won and lost so far this season. My totals might be off a little from yours if you're keeping your own. Some people use closing lines, others use widely available lines before apex, some just use whatever they wrote down in their schedules during the day. To me, the exact number doesn't matter that much anyway. It's the general theme of whether a team has been overrated or underrated. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I've rounded these off to the nearest dollar. Assume that a person is betting a dollar per game on each team in every game they've played this season. Here are the "earners" and "burners" up to the 2008 All-Star Break. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE EARNERS
Minnesota: +17 units
Tampa Bay: +13 units
Texas: +13 units
Los Angeles Angels: +11 units
Chicago White Sox: +11 units
Boston: +7 units
Oakland: +7 units
Baltimore: +4 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay started getting a lot of press when they passed Boston and New York in the AL East standings. Minnesota's actually been the better value team so far. Both have made their backers a lot of money. Texas is a third team that's not a division leader who's nailed double digits in profits. It's important for you to remember that the best money teams aren't necessarily those who win the most often...it's the teams who win more often than expectations. Las Vegas odds are based on expectations. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Note that the first place teams all show up well here. It's tough to make money on Boston because everyone knows they're so good. They've managed to earn a profit so far anyway. Chicago and Los Angeles are both up about 11 units to date. Put Chicago on your list of surprise teams too. The AL Central was supposed to be a race between Detroit and Cleveland. You'll be seeing their names momentarily. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll often hear TV handicappers say that you can't make money betting first place teams in any sport. The lines are too high for those teams to show a profit. I think this is more true in the second half of the season rather than the first. Think back to last football season, where New England and Dallas kept cashing all of their tickets in the first two months, then couldn't scale their tall numbers after that. I'd be a bit careful asking all of the teams on the list up above to keep winning. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There aren't any sharps who got rich by asking -180 favorites to win two-thirds of their games. Sharps will ride hot teams early in a season as they're climbing their way up the ladder. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AMERICAN LEAGUE BURNERS
Cleveland: -23 units
Seattle: -21 units
New York Yankees: -10 units
Detroit: -8 units
Toronto: -8 units
Kansas City: -3 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You can see Cleveland and Detroit show up among the four worst money teams in the American League. The New York Yankees are there too. Yankees fans never learn that there's no value betting on their team...particularly in the first half of the season. The Yanks did get hot in the second half last year. Maybe they'll do that again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]What's amazing about Cleveland is that they're this far down even after sweeping Tampa Bay last weekend! It was about -27 units before that series. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You'll note there are fewer teams on the losers list than on the winners list. That's because of Interleague play. The American League just killed the National League this season. That boosted the profit/loss ledger for many of the teams listed so far. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE EARNERS
Florida: +14 units
Chicago Cubs: +12 units
St. Louis: +11 units
Milwaukee: +4 units
Pittsburgh: +2 units[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Florida's the only real "surprise" team in the National League so far. Well, at least in terms of "good" surprises. There have been a lot of bad surprises! The Marlins were supposed to be battling Washington for last place in the NL East. Instead, they've been hanging around the top of the division all year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chicago is another first place team that's been able to clear some big price hurdles. Like Boston, they have a great record at home so far. They'll have to maintain that pace to keep rewarding their backers. I'm skeptical they'll be able to pull it off. They may still show a profit. It's going to be tougher at the second half prices they'll be seeing. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are 16 teams in the NL, yet only five are making money for backers. Pittsburgh's one bad series away from falling off the list too. Just a bad year in the "senior circuit" this season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NATIONAL LEAGUE BURNERS
San Diego: -24 units
Colorado: -18 units
Washington: -16 units
Atlanta: -12 units
Arizona: -11 units
Los Angeles Dodgers: -9 units
San Francisco: -8 units
Cincinnati: -5 units
Houston: -2 units
NY Mets: -2 units
Philadelphia: -1 unit[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Talk about BAD surprises! [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]San Diego and Colorado played each other in a playoff for the Wildcard spot last year. They're the two worst teams in the league money-wise. Arizona won the division that houses San Diego and Colorado. They're down double digits this year even though they're leading it again. In fact, the FIVE teams in the NL West are down about 70 units! How bad would the other divisions be if they didn't get to pad their records every so often against the West?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The New York Mets were down double digits before going on a long winning streak to end the first half. They're going to be expensive to take the rest of the way. But, they do have a look about them that suggests the team is tired of underachieving. Philadelphia will need to get off this list if they want to challenge the Mets in the East. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The sheer volume of losers in this league points to the differences between the AL and NL right now. Trading for CC Sabathia and Rich Harden will help. About 10 more trades like that and things may get closer to even![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I do think we'll see some dramatic changes on those lists between now and the end of the season. At least one team in each league will catch fire and close with a great run. I also think at least one of the contenders in each league will run into a wall and fall back to earth. Maybe more than one in the American League. Interleague play is finished, meaning they'll all be beating up on each other for two-and-a-half months. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In short, some lessons from the list:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Betting on underrated teams pays off big.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Betting on overrated teams will get you killed.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Betting on contenders can work in the first half of the season, but is likely to become much more difficult down the stretch.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's very hard to make money betting on the Yankees![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Collapses of divisions or leagues are often very apparent quickly if you're staying on top of the money won and money lost stats. The NL West announced early in the season that they were in deep trouble to anyone who was bothering to listen. [/FONT]
