Service Plays Friday 7/18/08

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To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim..

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JEFFERSONSPORTS
Hit 7 of last 8

MLB RECORD
+32.75 units (+3275 playing 100 per game)

EARLY RELEASE FOR FRI
MLB

ST. LOUIS-129
MINNESOTA-117
CFL 1-0 so far
BC-9
 
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I just checked out vegastopdogs & there's a capper who says he's 5-0 betting Mex. baseball on Bookmaker this week. I'll check B'Maker tonight to see if lines are up.
 

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SCOTT FERRALL


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR FRIDAY ANGELS -150 over Boston--Lackey will own the Red Sox in Anaheim. Buchholz isn't ready for this test on the road after just coming up from the minors. UNDER 8 RUNS

Seattle -135 over Cleveland--The Tribe have been wretched on the road and I'm ridin King Felix in this one. UNDER 7.5 RUNS

SAN FRANCISCO +115 over Milwaukee--that's right--I'm taking Matt Cain in the UPSET SPECIAL over CC Sabathia--we'l see who's laughing at the end of the night ! OVER 7.5 RUNS

LA -105 over Arizona--The Dodgers catch the Diamondbacks with Kuroda getting the best of Davis in the desert. UNDER 8.5 RUNS

Pittsburgh +105 over Colorado--Anything's possible at Coors. I'll take the huge risk and hope Ian Snell gives me something ! OVER 10.5 RUNS

ST.LOUIS -135 over San Diego--The Padres swallow, so I can't bet on them ! Looper over Maddux on a Pain Free Friday. UNDER 8.5 RUNS
7/18/2008
 

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Padres Thursday night. Friday it's the Phillies.
The deficit is 135 sirignanos.
 

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Hondo

Hondo had a thoroughly enjoyable ride on the Metamucil bandwagon last night as they rallied on his behalf to increase his accumulation of dead presidents to 790 kanehls.
Today, Mr. Aitch is letting three arms out of his star-studded stable of stalwarts - Galarraga, No lasco and the one and only Jimmy Shields. Ten units apiece on the Tigers, Marlins and Rays.
 
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STU FEINER

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees

We like the Yankees to start off the second half in fine fashion. Mike Mussina has not been pitching with smoke and mirrors folks. Moose has earned each and every one of his victories.

Can you believe the fact that Mike Mussina has not given up more than five earned runs all season? To take it one step further he has only let up more than three runs four times. Four times out of nineteen starts. You know that Mussina goes out there and gets the job done. Mike?s control has been at an all time high. He has only walked two batters in his last three starts. To take that even one step further, Mike has walked five men in his last six starts.

Take the Yankees and look for them to get on a hot streak, it is there time of the season.

New York Yankees (-)


Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles

The Tigers won an important game yesterday. Sure we aren?t going to tell you it was a ?must? win but for the Tigers confidence it was important. They went in to Baltimore and they played a very good home team and won a one run ball game. Of course they made it interesting in the ninth inning, but when Todd Jones is your closer that is going to happen more times than not.

The Tigers finally have their best line-up out there. It has been a long time since they have had all the big boys in the line-up at the same time. Granderson bats lead-off, Polanco two and then it gets real scary. Against right-handed pitching you will see Ordonez, Cabrera, and Sheffield all up together. Threw in Ivan Rodriguez, Marcus Thames and Edgar Renteria and you have a line-up that can pound anyone.

Look for the Tigers to win again on the road, the Orioles are starting to fade back to the pack.

Detroit Tigers (-)


Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Don?t think that Tampa won?t begin to press. If there seven game losing streak before the break hasn?t showed you that, then we don?t know what will. These guys are going to have a tough time holding off the Yankees and surpassing the Red Sox to take the division. In fact we still feel that they won?t make the playoffs.

The Rays offense has really been stagnant. This is a team that has scored just six runs in the past three games. It isn?t just one series either folks or just three games. Against the Yankees the Rays scored just one run in two games.

There offense is now barely in the top half of baseball. As a team they hit just .260. Sure they have young pitching but tonight they face A.J. Burnett. You saw how great he was in his last start didn?t you? Eight plus innings against the Yankees and just one run. He will shut down the Rays tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays (+)


Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

We really like the way the Royals have played this season. Unfortunately for them though we like the way the White Sox have played even more. Has there been a more under-rated team in all of baseball through the first few months of the baseball team? There are people out there that don?t even realize they are the best team in the AL Central.

The White Sox have protected their home-turf all season. They are fourteen games over .500 for the season but in Chicago they are nineteen games over the .500 mark and have a 32-13 mark.

The White Sox send their most reliable starter to the hill. Mark has been on another level for really six weeks. Buherle has allowed just five runs in his last four starts. Mark is 4-2 in his last six decisions and has been a rock all season for the Sox. Against just an average line-up he will get the job done.

Chicago White Sox (-)

Boston Red Sox at LA Angels

Whenever you can get John Lackey at this price you must jump all over it. Lackey has been superb all season. Lackey was the best pitcher not to make the all-star team this season. John is 6-2 on the season with an ERA of 2.46. The Angels just win when he is out there folks. John has made eleven starts this season and the Angels have won eight of them. Winning over 72% of his starts is not an easy task.

The Red Sox are a great team but they still struggle on the road. Even though they have played much better as of late, the Sox are still just 2-7 in their last nine road games. The Sox are still without David Ortiz. Sure he took some batting practice but he isn?t quite ready, until he is you can?t take the Sox on the road against a top of the line starter.

LA Angels (-)


Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

We have to tell you that we are not a fan of the Mariners baseball team. There will be very few times the rest of the season that we will be aboard with the Mariners. This is a baseball team that has too many problems. They just cut their over-priced starting first baseman. They fired their general manager and manager not to long ago and on top of all of those factors they have injuries.

With all that said we love Seattle tonight. We wanted to preface that fact with the condition of the team, we know all about it. Tonight we have the best young pitcher in baseball. Felix Hernandez is worth jumping on board with. This guy has finally hit his stride and is going deep in to games and winning ball games.

The Indians are a bad team and an even worse road team, the Mariners send their ace tonight and they are still very capable of winning behind him.

Seattle Mariners (-)


National League

Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Sometimes there are games you have to just see a line mistake and you have to jump on it. Tonight we jump on the road dog Philadelphia Phillies. Jamie Moyer has been more than reliable all season.

We know how all of you probably feel about Moyer, but he proves how important location and smarts are on the hill. Jamie may not break 82 MPH but he understands how to win. Moyer is 8-6 on the season with an ERA of 3.95. Pitching in the NL East and pitching in his home ball park, those numbers are very solid.

The Phillies are better when they are behind the eight ball. Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine games as an under-dog. They will beat the Marlins tonight and stay on top of the NL East.

Philadelphia Phillies (+)

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves

Jump all over the Braves here tonight. There is no reason why this game should even be close. The Braves are the forgotten team in the NL East. Do not make that mistake though. This is a team that still has a ton of talent. This is a team that has a lot of players that have won before. Before it is all said and done we will see the Braves make a push, we can almost guarantee it.

Tim Hudson has been great all season. He is just 9-7 but boy has he deserved better. His ERA is in the top dozen and he has already logged 129 innings. Hudson keeps the ball down, limits his walks and battles.

These two teams are very familiar with each other. The home team has won four of the last five games and that trend will continue tonight. The Braves in a blow out.

Atlanta Braves (-)

Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros

Do not fall in to the trap. Do not look at these two teams records and think that the Cubs are the smart play. Sure the Cubs are 57-38 and lead the division. Sure the Astros are 44-51 and aren?t even close in the division. There home and road splits though tell a different story.

Even with all the Astros struggles they have found ways to win games in their ball-park. They are 22-21 in their home building. You may not think that number and that mark is too impressive but it is. They play in a division that has three teams over .500 and a division that can hit. The Cubs on the other hand are 20-26 on the road. That has to change if the Cubs feel they are major contenders. It will not change tonight.

Houston Astros (+)

San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals

The Padres are just a dead team. Last night they couldn?t even get the job done with their ace pitcher. Jake Peavy did give up a few home-runs but he still only allowed a few runs and that should have been enough to win the game but it wasn?t. Tonight the Cardinals build off their impressive one run victory and take game two of this set.

It is like night and day for the Cardinals on the road or at home. At home they hit, they hit for power, they play better defense and they even steal more bases. The Padres are just a mess offensively folks. They hit a measly .251 on the road as a team. You may think there team ERA is solid right? They are over 5.00. This Padres team is not going to fire this year. The Cardinals will win their game here just like they did last night.

St. Louis Cardinals (-)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies

We love the way the Rockies played last night. Call us crazy but in the weakest division in all of baseball we feel that the Colorado Rockies could actually make a run. Yes we know there record, we know all about their injuries. How many people felt last year though that the Rockies were for real?

Ian Snell pitches for the road Pirates tonight. Has there been a worse pitcher all season? Here is a guy that was talked about at length before the season. He sure hasn?t lived up to even a percent of that hype.

On the road Ian is 1-5 with an ERA over 8.10. Is there much more to say after that? Now you want him to pitch well in the toughest road park in all of baseball for pitchers? Well we aren?t going to buy it. We love the Rockies at home tonight.

Colorado Rockies (-)


LA Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

A battle of the titans here tonight in Arizona. Well not exactly but they are the two best teams in the NL West. It is scary to say that, but both of these teams are under the .500 mark and both of them have struggled for a long period of time. The Dodgers came out very flat and got it going a little, but have resorted back to their losing ways. The Diamondbacks came out like a house of cards, but have played badly for almost 75 games.

Tonight we have to go with the home team. We have to look at the facts and the facts are on the side of Arizona. Sure Hiroki Kuroda has been very good, but he has piled his numbers in Los Angeles. Away from LA he has been bad.

Kuroda is 3-0 at home with an ERA of 2.63. On the road Kuroda is 2-6 with an ERA over 4.00. He doesn?t have the luxury of the big ball park and doesn?t have the luxury of familiarity. Take Arizona behind Doug Davis.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-)


Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants

We like the Giants to steal one here tonight. C.C. has come over and done a nice job for the Brewers so far, but that isn?t going to happen all season. Believe it or not but Matt Cain is one of the few pitchers that can match C.C. if he is going right. Guess what everyone? He is going real right.

Cain has allowed just 13 hits in his last twenty innings. In comparison Sabathia has allowed thirteen hits in just his last 15 innings pitched. Sabathia has a whip of 1.27 in his last few starts, Cain has a whip of just 1.05.

The Brewers still struggle on the road and until they improve that we will not trust them. Grabbing Matt at this price is too good to pass up. Take the Giants behind Mr. Cain.

San Francisco Giants (+)
 
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MLB:

YANKEES -170

CUBS -125

ANGELS -150

ST. LOUIS -135

MILWAUKEE -130
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JIMMY THE MOOSE Comp

Game: San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals Jul 18 2008 8:15PM
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

Reason: San Diego has a 7-21 record over their last 28 games overall. The Padres are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. In their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record San Diego is 5-14. In their last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record the Padres are 15-40. The Padres are 2-5 in Maddux's last 7 starts overall and in his last 7 road starts. St. Louis has won 3 of their last 4 games. Looper takes the mound tonight looking for his 10th win and after failing in his last couple of starts he gets the win tonight. The Cardinals are 51-20 in the last 71 meetings between the clubs. San Diedo is 9-28 in their last 37 trips to St. Louis. Play on the St. Louis Cardinals -.
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS



NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (52-44) at Florida (50-45)
The Marlins look to move closer to first place in the N.L. East when they send red-hot Ricky Nolasco to the mound (10-4, 3.70) as these rivals kick off a weekend series at Dolphin Stadium. Florida capped the first half of the season with an 11-game road trip to Colorado, San Diego and Los Angeles, going 6-5 on the journey, including a 6-2 in the last eight.
Philadelphia went into the All-Star break on a 4-1 run, all at home, and the last time the Phillies went on the road they swept a three-game series from division-rival Atlanta. Tonight, Charlie Manuel is set to go with ageless southpaw Jamie Moyer (8-6, 3.95), who is unbeaten in nine career starts against the Marlins
The Phillies and Marlins have split six meetings this year, with the host taking two of three in each series.
Florida is on a 10-1 run with Nolasco on the hill, including 7-0 in the last seven. In Saturday?s 5-3, 12-inning win at the Dodgers, the right-hander gave up just two runs on five hits in six innings. Nolasco has delivered a quality start in six consecutive outings, posting a 1.95 ERA during this stretch.
Nolasco has won four straight home starts, giving up just four earned runs in 28 innings (1.29 ERA). That includes a 5-4 win over the Phillies on June 10 when Nolasco gave up three runs (all unearned) on four hits in six innings. For his career, Nolasco is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA in seven games (four starts) against Philadelphia.
Moyer hasn?t been on the mound since July 10, when he dominated the Cardinals in a 4-1 home victory, giving up a run on seven hits in seven innings. Prior to that outing, the Phillies had lost four straight games behind Moyer. The 45-year-old lefty has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.
Moyer is 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA in nine road starts, and since coming to Philly in 2006, he?s dominated Florida, going 9-0 with a 3.03 ERA. Moyer has faced the Fish twice this year, giving up five runs in seven innings of a 7-5 home win on June 1, then scattering two hits and a walk in eight scoreless innings of a 3-0 road victory 12 days later.
The over is 36-17-1 in the last 54 meetings between these clubs, 48-19-3 in the last 70 clashes at Dolphin Stadium and 6-2 in Moyer?s last eight outings against Florida. In addition, for the Marlins, the over is on streaks of 39-16-6 overall, 66-30-9 against the N.L. East, 28-11-3 on Fridays and 12-4-1 against southpaw starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE:OVER




L.A. Dodgers (46-49) at Arizona (47-48)
First place in the N.L. West is up for grabs at Chase Field in Phoenix, where the Diamondbacks are set to hand the ball to Doug Davis (3-4, 3.80) in the opener of a three-game series. Arizona alternated wins and losses on a six-game road trip to Washington and Philadelphia prior to the All-Star break, and the DBacks are just 19-32 going back to May 20.
Los Angeles, which starts Hiroki Kuroda (5-6, 3.43) in this one, pounded the Marlins 9-1 in its most recent game on Sunday, avoiding a four-game sweep at the hands of Florida. On the bright side, the Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 on the highway.
Arizona is 4-1 against the Dodgers this season, including a three-game sweep at Chase Field from April 7-9. The Diamondbacks have averaged 6.4 runs per game in the five contests.
Davis has given up exactly three runs in four straight starts, but the DBacks are just 1-3 in those contests. Also, the southpaw has recorded a quality start in five of his last six outings, with Arizona splitting those games. In six starts at home this season, Davis is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA, but the DBacks are 19-6 in his last 25 efforts at Chase Field. That includes a 10-5 home win over the Dodgers on April 8, with Davis giving up two runs in six innings as he improved to 4-2 with a 1.33 ERA in six career starts versus Los Angeles.
Kuroda returned from a three-week stint on the disabled list and was brilliant in two games against the Astros and Braves, allowing a combined six hits and one walk in 16 scoreless innings. However, his scoreless streak ended in his last start against the Marlins on Saturday, allowing three runs on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings, getting a no-decision in L.A.?s 5-3 loss.
The right-hander is 2-6 with a 4.29 ERA in nine starts on the road, and in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks on April 9, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings, losing 4-3.
The under is 7-2 in Kuroda?s last nine starts overall, 7-2 in his nine outings on the road, 4-1-1 in Davis? last six overall and 4-2 in Davis? six outings at home in 2008. However, the over is 4-1 in the five series meetings between these teams this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE:ARIZONA



AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (57-40) at L.A. Angels (57-38)
The Angels send ace John Lackey (6-2, 2.46) to the mound as the top two teams in the American League kick off a three-game series against the Red Sox at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles went into the break with consecutive wins at Oakland on Saturday and Sunday, but the team is just 9-8 in its last 17 games overall and 6-6 in its last 12 at home. On the bright side, Mike Scioscia?s squad is 37-16 in Lackey?s last 53 starts.
Clay Buchholz (2-4, 5.70) is scheduled to get the call for Boston, which closed the first half of the season on a 5-1 run, and the club is 44-20 in its last 64 games following an off day. On the downside, the Red Sox are mired in slumps of 3-8 versus the A.L. West, 2-7 on the road, 2-8 in Buchholz?s last 10 starts overall and 0-6 with Buchholz working on the highway.
These teams haven?t faced each other since late April, when L.A. went to Fenway Park and took two of three from the Sox. However, Boston went 9-4 against the Angels last year, including sweeping a divisional playoff series in October.
After starting the year off with nine straight quality starts, Lackey has gotten roughed up in his last two against the Blue Jays (home) and Rangers (road), giving up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Los Angeles split the two contests and is 8-3 in Lackey?s 11 outings this year, including 3-2 at home where the big right-hander sports a 2.50 ERA.
Buchholz returned from a two-month stint in Triple-A a week ago tonight and suffered a 7-3 home loss to the Orioles, as he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Buchholz is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts and he?s 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA in five road starts this season, all Red Sox losses.
Lackey has struggled against Boston in his career, going 1-6 with a 6.27 ERA in 11 career starts, 10 of which the Angels have lost. Meanwhile, Buchholz?s first career big-league start came against Lackey and the Angels at home last Aug. 17, and he gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings of an 8-4 victory.
For the Angels, the under is on streaks of 35-17-3 overall, 9-3 on Fridays, 13-3-1 with Lackey on the hill overall and 5-2-1 when Lackey pitches at home. Conversely, the over is 5-1-1 in Buchholz?s last seven starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on the road and 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
 
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SCOTT SPREITZER


My AL East Blowout GOW is a play on the Rays with Shields over Burnett. Home Sweet Home! The Rays are my AL East Blowout GOW. Thanks! GL! Scott.

SCOTT SPREITZER 's 25* MLB GRAND SLAM WIPEOUT! *11-2, 85% w/ 25* Plays!
I'm laying the price with the Twins on Friday night. Look for the Twins to rock the Rangers on Friday, my 25* Grand Slam. Thanks! GL! Scott.
 
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Computer Plays

Major League Baseball

Friday, July 18, 2008

Detroit Tigers -105
Chicago White Sox -160
St. Louis Cardinals -140
 
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins

Although Texas' starter Kevin Milwood was on the hill when the Rangers beat the Twins, 6-5, earlier this year, he was not credited with the win and in fact we find the veteran hurler at 0-5 all-time vs. Minnesota. This is a great price for a Twins team that went into the break as winners of 19 of their last 25 games, including a 13-1 mark here at the Metrdome. Take the better team tonight.

Play on: Minnesota
 

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