Season Record for Toronto Games: 3-3, +1.51 units
Back with another Jays Game play. Tonight Toronto is in Tampa Bay for the opener of a weekend series. Burnett and Shields will go, which looks to be a nice pitching duel. Here's my read on the game:
Burnett has been pretty lights out for the Jays lately. I was at both of his latest dominating performances vs NYY and vs ATL... and when that guy is on his game, he's unhittable. The problem is, AJ is pretty inconsistent and you never really know what you're going to get with him. However, it seems like he's got his confidence back. Toronto has won 5 of their last 6, and 6 of their last 8.
Shields has been great for Tampa this year. He's 5-1 with a 2.12 ERA at home this year. He beat the Jays at home 6-4 on April 22... the closing line of that game was very similar to what the line for tonight's game is currently at. What's impressive about Shields are his numbers against Toronto batters:
PLAYER PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---
Gregg Zaun 8 8 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 .250
Brad Wilkerson 5 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250
Matt Stairs 13 12 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .083
Marco Scutaro 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 .222
Alexis Rios 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 .111
Lyle Overbay 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000
John McDonald 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
Joe Inglett 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
David Eckstein 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Rod Barajas 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---
Total 67 64 9 1 1 0 4 2 13 .141
Has never faced: Adam Lind, Kevin Mench, and Scott Rolen
Other than John McDonald (the Jays worst batter who probably won't even play,) no Blue Jay is hitting over 250 against Shields. Combine that with the fact that most of the Jays starters like Scutaro, Rios, Overbay, Inglett, Eckstein and Stairs have pathetic averages against him. Shields looks very impressive compared to Toronto's lineup tonight.
Toronto's bats have been better lately, but I don't see them doing much damage tonight. As for Burnett, you don't know what you're going to get with him... but Tampa has lost 7 in a row, and over those games they haven't hit anything either. If Burnett shows up tonight, we might see many scoreless innings.
Other notable stats:
Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
Leans:
UNDER 8 -122
1H UNDER 4 +101
Toronto TT UNDER 3.5 -120
Official play: UNDER 8 -122 to win 1 unit.
I don't see many runs in tonight's game. If Burnett no-shows, walks batters and gives up runs, he'll get yanked by Cito. The Jays bullpen is above average so I like my chances there. But if Burnett shows up, this game won't even be close to 8 runs. I'll take my chances with Burnett.
Back with another Jays Game play. Tonight Toronto is in Tampa Bay for the opener of a weekend series. Burnett and Shields will go, which looks to be a nice pitching duel. Here's my read on the game:
Burnett has been pretty lights out for the Jays lately. I was at both of his latest dominating performances vs NYY and vs ATL... and when that guy is on his game, he's unhittable. The problem is, AJ is pretty inconsistent and you never really know what you're going to get with him. However, it seems like he's got his confidence back. Toronto has won 5 of their last 6, and 6 of their last 8.
Shields has been great for Tampa this year. He's 5-1 with a 2.12 ERA at home this year. He beat the Jays at home 6-4 on April 22... the closing line of that game was very similar to what the line for tonight's game is currently at. What's impressive about Shields are his numbers against Toronto batters:
PLAYER PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---
Gregg Zaun 8 8 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 .250
Brad Wilkerson 5 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250
Matt Stairs 13 12 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .083
Marco Scutaro 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 .222
Alexis Rios 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 .111
Lyle Overbay 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000
John McDonald 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500
Joe Inglett 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
David Eckstein 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000
Rod Barajas 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000
+-----------------+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---
Total 67 64 9 1 1 0 4 2 13 .141
Has never faced: Adam Lind, Kevin Mench, and Scott Rolen
Other than John McDonald (the Jays worst batter who probably won't even play,) no Blue Jay is hitting over 250 against Shields. Combine that with the fact that most of the Jays starters like Scutaro, Rios, Overbay, Inglett, Eckstein and Stairs have pathetic averages against him. Shields looks very impressive compared to Toronto's lineup tonight.
Toronto's bats have been better lately, but I don't see them doing much damage tonight. As for Burnett, you don't know what you're going to get with him... but Tampa has lost 7 in a row, and over those games they haven't hit anything either. If Burnett shows up tonight, we might see many scoreless innings.
Other notable stats:
Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
Leans:
UNDER 8 -122
1H UNDER 4 +101
Toronto TT UNDER 3.5 -120
Official play: UNDER 8 -122 to win 1 unit.
I don't see many runs in tonight's game. If Burnett no-shows, walks batters and gives up runs, he'll get yanked by Cito. The Jays bullpen is above average so I like my chances there. But if Burnett shows up, this game won't even be close to 8 runs. I'll take my chances with Burnett.
