7/19/2008
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NL FINALLY GETTING SMART AND RAIDING AL TALENT![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm surprised it took this long. But, the National League finally got smart and has started accumulating American League talent.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This should have struck everyone as obvious when Bronson Arroyo came over to Cincinnati and challenged for a Cy Young award after just being a generic innings muncher in Boston. It should have been even more clear when Ted Lilly had a good year for the Cubs after coming over from Toronto. I figured everyone would start doing that sooner or later. It didn't happen sooner. But it's happening now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There was no reason for it to take this long. Though some have called the National League a "glorified minor league" the past few seasons, they don't have minor league resources. It's not like the teams play in Dubuque or Schenectady or Walla Walla.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, the NL also has money. The New York Mets in the offseason won the bidding war for Johan Santana. Now other teams are trading prospects and getting creative with their budgets so they can afford to be competitive. And, believe it or not, the shuttling of players like this could go a long way toward equalizing the leagues once again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's why I'm discussing this on the heels of the Blanton acquisition. We're starting to see a process that could influence your handicapping this year and in coming seasons.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, buying up excess talent is happening now...and YOU'RE TRYING TO PICK WINNERS NOW! This trend is going to be a big part of your process the rest of this season, maybe in the World Series (where we could very well see Santana, Harden, Sabathia, or Blanton pitch), and in 2009 in IL play. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stay on top of developments here. You may catch Nevada oddsmakers flatfooted time and time again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NL FINALLY GETTING SMART AND RAIDING AL TALENT![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm surprised it took this long. But, the National League finally got smart and has started accumulating American League talent.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Milwaukee traded for C.C. Sabathia of Cleveland[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Chicago traded for Rich Harden of Oakland[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Philadelphia traded for Joe Blanton of Oakland[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This should have struck everyone as obvious when Bronson Arroyo came over to Cincinnati and challenged for a Cy Young award after just being a generic innings muncher in Boston. It should have been even more clear when Ted Lilly had a good year for the Cubs after coming over from Toronto. I figured everyone would start doing that sooner or later. It didn't happen sooner. But it's happening now. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There was no reason for it to take this long. Though some have called the National League a "glorified minor league" the past few seasons, they don't have minor league resources. It's not like the teams play in Dubuque or Schenectady or Walla Walla.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The National League has major market teams. There's no such thing as financial hardship when you've got teams in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Diego, or Houston. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The National League has been building new stadiums to maintain interest in established cities. It's not a dying league where the cement is crumbling. It's as polished and shiny as it can be. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The National League shares in the big TV pool provided from the contracts with FOX and ESPN. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The National League has a storied history. It is called the "senior circuit" after all. Sure, the New York Yankees are THE franchise in the sport. The National League has the all-time home run king (Hank Aaron clean or Barry Bonds dirty), and quite a rich history itself. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The National League has the Chicago Cubs, a team that draws everywhere it goes. You may not be aware that the Cubs are the top betting team in Las Vegas. The public always roots for the Cubs. I've talked in the past about how the Oakland Raiders or Los Angeles Lakers are virtual home teams in Vegas or Reno. In baseball, that team is the Cubs from the NL. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The commissioner of baseball has direct ties to a National League team (Milwaukee)! If anything is going to be rigged by the ultimate power in the sport, it's going to help the National League. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Well, the NL also has money. The New York Mets in the offseason won the bidding war for Johan Santana. Now other teams are trading prospects and getting creative with their budgets so they can afford to be competitive. And, believe it or not, the shuttling of players like this could go a long way toward equalizing the leagues once again. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's why I'm discussing this on the heels of the Blanton acquisition. We're starting to see a process that could influence your handicapping this year and in coming seasons.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]American League pitchers are better than National League pitchers as a general rule. They're more battle tested because they've been pitching in much tougher conditions (wall-to-wall hitting including DH's). A "pretty good" pitcher in the AL can be a star in the NL. An "over the hill" pitcher in the AL can still munch innings in the NL (like Jamie Moyer of Philadelphia). As you handicap games involving those AL guys with their new teams, you need to make sure the moneylines are accounting for that edge. Oddsmakers missed the boat with Arroyo and Lilly when they came over. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]American League hitters are also better! The NL hasn't thought about this much yet because everyone focuses on pitching. And, some of the AL sluggers are DH's or first baseman, and those are the easiest positions to fill. At some point, the NL is going to acquire a good hitter at a skill position and launch him to an MVP award. Maybe in the next few weeks we'll see a guy like that come over from a losing American League team to an NL contender and change the shape of the pennant race. Management should be looking at infielders and outfielders from AL teams who are already out of the pennant race. If Detroit falls out of the race, they have some expensive bats they'd probably be interested in moving.
[/FONT] - [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If this trend continues, the NL could equalize the leagues during the time where the AL is watching their acquired prospects grow up. Oakland may have traded some of their present to build their future. A couple of more teams do that...and the NL's present gets much better very quickly.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, buying up excess talent is happening now...and YOU'RE TRYING TO PICK WINNERS NOW! This trend is going to be a big part of your process the rest of this season, maybe in the World Series (where we could very well see Santana, Harden, Sabathia, or Blanton pitch), and in 2009 in IL play. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Stay on top of developments here. You may catch Nevada oddsmakers flatfooted time and time again. [/FONT]
