THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (52-46) at Cincinnati (48-51)
The Mets send red-hot right-hander Mike Pelfrey (8-6, 3.64 ERA) to the mound at Great American Ball Park to wrap up a four-game series against the Reds. New York, which was dealt a 5-2 loss Friday night to halt a 10-game winning streak, suffered a 7-2 setback Saturday night. However, the Mets are on a 5-0 run in Sunday games and are 8-2 against losing teams, and they?ve won seven straight with Pelfrey on the hill.
Cincinnati, which will counter with All-Star Edinson Volquez (12-3, 2.29), is on a 6-1 streak at home and is 7-1 against the N.L. East and 14-5 at home against winning teams. In addition, the Reds are on a 10-3 tear behind Volquez and are 9-1 when Volquez faces a winning team and 7-2 with Volquez at home.
Today?s game wraps up the second series of the season between these two teams, with each team having won three games, and New York is 7-4 in the last 11 contests.
Pelfrey has won his last six starts, including four on the road, and hasn?t been dealt a losing decision in nearly two months ? since a 7-3 home setback to Florida on May 26. Last Sunday against Colorado, he threw eight shutout innings, scattering six hits, in a 7-0 home rout. In fact, the 24-year-old has allowed just one run over 22 innings in his last three starts, for a minuscule 0.41 ERA.
The 25-year-old Volquez has gone 5-1 with two no-decisions (both Reds losses) in his last eight starts, getting the win in his last two outings. On July 12 at Milwaukee, he yielded just two runs (one earned) on six hits in seven innings in an 8-2 victory. In 19 starts this year, he?s given up three earned runs or less 18 times, including two earned runs or less on 15 occasions.
Pelfrey is 4-2 with bit heavy 5.56 ERA on the road this season, and he?s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against Cincinnati. On May 10 at home, he allowed two runs on eight hits in six innings, but he got little bullpen or offensive support in a 7-1 loss. Meanwhile, Volquez is a sterling 6-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine home starts this year and will make his first career appearance against the Mets, having pitched the past two seasons for Texas.
For New York, the under is 5-1 overall, 5-0 with Pelfrey throwing on Sunday and 8-0 with Pelfrey facing a losing team, but the over is 7-4-1 in the Mets? last 12 on the highway. The over for Cincinnati is 12-4-1 on Sunday, 7-3 in series finales and 5-1-1 in Volquez?s last seven starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (51-46) at N.Y. Yankees (52-45)
The Athletics send out All-Star right-hander Justin Duchscherer (10-5, 1.82 ERA) to wrap up a three-game weekend set in the Bronx against the Yankees and southpaw Andy Pettitte (10-7, 4.03). On Saturday, the Yankees took a 4-3, 12-inning victory when Jose Molina was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded. The Athletics have lost four straight games and five of their last seven, and they are 2-9 against left-handers and 0-5 in the third game of a series. But with Duchscherer throwing, they are on a 6-2 run overall and are 7-1 against winning teams.
New York is on a 6-0 spree at Yankee Stadium and is 13-3 against the A.L. West, 39-12 in Game 3 of a series and 21-7 in Sunday contests. Furthermore, the Yanks are 7-1 with Pettitte in the third game of a series, 6-2 in his last eight starts overall and a lengthy 66-27 behind Pettitte at home.
The Yankees lead the season series between these two teams 4-1, but the A?s are 6-3 in their last nine meetings in New York and 6-1 when Pettitte starts for the Yankees.
Duchscherer is on a 6-1 streak in his last eight starts, getting a no-decision last Sunday at home in a 4-3 loss to the Angels. In that outing, he allowed two runs on five hits in 7 2/3 innings. Duchscherer has given up two earned runs or less in 10 straight starts, going at least six innings in all 10, including a complete-game two-hitter in a 2-0 home win over Seattle on July 8.
Pettitte is 7-2 with two no-decisions in his last 11 outings, though he?s alternated wins and losses in his last four starts. Last Sunday at Toronto, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings of a 4-1 loss. The veteran lefty has gone at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 starts.
Despite a 2.53 road ERA, Duchscherer is just 3-4 in seven starts on the highway this season. He?s 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA in eight career appearances (one start) against the Yankees, getting his win in an 8-4 home victory June 11, when he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Pettitte is 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and he?s 9-5 with a 3.42 ERA in 18 career starts against Oakland. That includes a 4-1 win at Oakland on June 12, in which he allowed one run on five hits in eight innings, his first win over the A?s in his last seven attempts for the Yanks.
The under is on a 14-3-1 tear for the Yankees and a 17-5 run for the Athletics. For Oakland, the under is also 6-0 in roadies, 8-1 on the road against left-handers, 8-1 against winning teams and 4-0 behind Duchscherer. The under for New York is 5-0-1 at home, 5-1 in the third game of a series, 10-1 with Pettitte making a Game 3 start and 13-3 in his last 16 home starts. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OAKLAND and UNDER
Boston (57-42) at L.A. Angels (59-38)
Right-hander Jon Garland (8-6, 4.20 ERA) will take the ball for the Angels when they attempt to sweep their three-game home series against the defending World Series champion Red Sox. Los Angeles, which opened the series Friday night with an 11-3 rout, rallied from a 2-0, seventh-inning deficit to post a 4-2 victory Saturday. The Angels, who have won five of their last six games, are 39-16 at home against winning teams, 6-1 in their last seven home outings and 5-1 with Garland going against an A.L. East opponent.
Boston, which will counter with right-hander Tim Wakefield (6-6, 3.60), is 0-8 behind the knuckleballer on the road against winning teams, 1-10 overall with Wakefield facing winning teams and 1-6 in his last seven road starts. The Red Sox are also 2-9 in their last 11 road games ? including losing their last four -- and 3-10 against the A.L. West. A lone positive: Boston is 10-3 in the third game of a series.
L.A. leads the season series against Boston 4-1, having won four in a row, though the Sox won nine of 13 against the Angels last season, including a sweep in the divisional playoff round.
The Angels are 2-5 in Garland?s last six starts, and Garland has alternated wins and losses in his last four starts, getting pounded for seven runs on 10 hits in just 2 2/3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Oakland on July 11. That followed four solid starts, in which Garland yielded eight earned runs in 28 innings (2.57 ERA), including a six-hit complete game in a 7-1 victory July 6.
Wakefield is 3-5 with three no-decisions in his last 11 starts, though he was solid in his last outing July 12 against Baltimore. He allowed just one run on two hits in seven innings of a 12-1 rout. Wakefield?s starts have been steady, as he?s gone seven innings or more in eight of his last nine games, yielding no more than three earned runs per game throughout.
Garland is 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he?s 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA in 13 career appearances (10 starts) against Boston. On April 23 at Boston, he allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings to get the win in a 6-4 L.A. victory. Wakefield has a rash of no-decisions on the road this year, going 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts, and he?s 9-11 with a 4.79 ERA in 27 career appearances (22 starts) against the Angels.
The under for Los Angeles is 9-2-2 in Garland?s last 13 starts, 7-0-1 behind Garland at home and 36-18-3 in the Angels? last 57 games overall. For Boston, the under is 6-2 against the A.L. West, 14-3-3 with Wakefield a road underdog and 9-3-2 with Wakefield on the road against winning teams. However, in this rivalry, the over is 9-4-1 in the last 13 meetings, 5-1 with Wakefield starting against the Angels and 4-1 at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
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