Service Plays Monday 7/21/08

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Tigers yesterday.

Today it's the Brewers and Braves. The surplus is 15 sirignanos.
 

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SPORTS ADVISORS


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee (55-43) at St. Louis (57-43)

Two teams that have been red-hot since the All-Star break square off at Busch Stadium in St. Louis when the Brewers come calling with Seth McClung (5-5, 4.16 ERA) on the hill against the Cardinals’ Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52).

Milwaukee went out to San Francisco after the break and took three straight against the Giants, including Sunday’s 7-4 victory. The Brewers have won four straight overall and have taken four of five from the Cardinals and lead the season series 5-4. However, in St. Louis the Brewers are just 1-6 in their last six visits.

St. Louis swept a four-game set from the Padres to open the second half, including Sunday’s dramatic 9-5 win thanks to a walk-off grand slam off the bat of Aaron Miles. The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of their last seven overall, and they are 15-7 at home against teams with a winning record.

McClung is 0-2 in his last three outings with a 3.86 ERA and he’s lost his last two even though he didn’t allow more than three earned runs in either start. In his last road outing, he held the D-Backs to two runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Milwaukee victory.

The Cardinals are 3-0 in Pineiro’s last three starts even though he got drilled back on July 13, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with an 11-6 win. He faced these Brewers back on May 10 and gave up two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 St. Louis win. The Cardinals have won seven of his last nine outings against teams with a winning record.

The under is 4-0 in Pineiro’s last four starts against teams with a winning record and 8-2 in McClung’s last 10 overall. Meanwhile the over is on runs of 8-1 for the Brewers overall and 8-3 when they are a road ‘dog. The over is also 7-1 when the Cardinals are a home favorite and 8-2-1 when they face a right-handed starter.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (55-43) at N.Y. Yankees (53-45)

The Yankees try to stay perfect since the All-Star break when they send Sidney Ponson (5-1, 3.96) to the hill at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx against the Twins’ Nick Blackburn (7-5, 3.65).

New York completed a three-game sweep of the A’s on Sunday with a 2-1 victory behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte. The Yankees have won eight of their last 11 overall and seven straight at home.

The Twins opened the second half by taking two of three from the Rangers, but dropped Sunday’s series finale, 1-0. Minnesota is on runs of 21-7 overall, 16-6 against right-handed starters and 8-2 in series openers.

The Yankees have dominated this rivalry, going 37-15 in the last 52 meetings and 22-8 when the two meet in the Bronx.

Ponson is 2-0 in New York since joining the Yankees and allowed just one run on five hits in six innings of a 2-1 win over the Rays on July 9. The Yankees have won all three of his outings and have scored 29 runs in the three games. Ponson’s teams are 7-3 in his last 10 starts against Minnesota and he has held the Twins to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them.

Blackburn has pitched well in his last three road outings but has nothing to show for it, giving up exactly two earned runs in all three but the Twins are just 1-2 in those three and 3-7 in his last 10 highway starts. Minnesota has won six of his last nine starts and that includes a short 4 1/3 innings of work against the Yankees on June 1 when he held them to one run on five hits in a 5-1 Twins’ win.

The over is 11-5 for Minnesota on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-2 when the Twins play on Monday. Meanwhile the under is on runs of 20-7-1 overall for the Yankees, 14-3-1 as a home favorite and 6-0 in series openers.

In this rivalry, the under is 24-9-2 in New York, but the over is 4-1 in the last five overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Oakland (51-47) at Tampa Bay (57-40)

It’s a battle of southpaws today when the A’s send Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49) to the mound at Tropicana Field in Tampa to battle the Rays’ Scott Kazmir (7-5, 3.04).

Oakland has dropped five straight, including a 2-1 loss Sunday that completed a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend. The A’s managed just five runs in the three games in the Bronx and have not scored more than three runs in a game since July 11. They have won nine of their last 10 series openers and six of their last seven on Monday but they are just 2-9 in their last 11 against southpaws.

Tampa took two of three at home against the Blue Jays over the weekend, but dropped Sunday’s contest 9-4. The Rays had lost seven straight before the All-Star break but still hold one of the best home marks in baseball at 38-15. They are on further streaks of 22-5 at home against teams with a winning record and 16-5 in series openers.

Tampa has won five of the last six meetings with the A’s but Oakland holds the long-term advantage, going 57-26 in the last 83 series clashes.

Eveland has held the opposition to three runs or less in eight straight outings and the A’s have alternated wins in his last 10. In his lone start against Tampa on May 21 he held the Rays to one run on three hits and got a complete-game 9-1 victory. On the downside, the A’s are just 1-4 in Eveland’s last five on the road and 0-4 when he faces a team with a winning record.

Kazmir hasn’t been his usual dominant self lately, going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 6.19 ERA and the Rays are just 3-4 in his last seven. At home he is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and he has dominated Oakland, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last eight starts dating back to 2005. He beat the A’s back on May 20, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Tampa is 6-1 in Kazmir’s last seven at home but 0-4 when he gets seven or more days of rest.

The under is 12-5-2 in Eveland’s last 19 starts and 6-0 when he starts a series opener. Meanwhile the under is 21-8-2 in Kazmir’s last 31 against teams with a winning record and 11-5-2 when he faces the A.L. West.

Overall for the Rays, the under is on runs of 20-7 against lefties and 12-1 at home against southpaws. For Oakland, the under is 20-8 in series openers and 8-2 against left-handed starters.

In this rivalry, the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in Tampa, but the under is 5-1-1 when Kazmir is on the hill.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext id=modified_93677 vAlign=bottom></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

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Scott Ferrall

Boston and Lester over Seattle at -130--in the Emerald City

Detroit (even odds) over Kansas City and Hochevar

Chicago -165 behind Vazquez over Texas--The White Sox just don' lose regularly

Toronto's Litsch over Liz in Baltimore--The Jays aren't dead yet and the Orioles have been playing like shit

MILWAUKEE +105 over St.Louis--Brewers take the opener of an important series at Busch

Cincy -135 over San Diego--The Reds split with the Mets at home and now they have the lowly padres in town. SD doesn't win games
 

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Terron Chapman

Atlanta Braves vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins

The Florida Marlins will look to carry the momentum they gained from Sunday's walk off win against the Phillies into game 1 of their series tonight with the Atlanta Braves. They will send a young right hander to the mound in Christopher Volstad who was electric in his first big league start.

I'm a little apprehensive in recommending a play on a rookie pitcher in his first home start but I was impressed by what I saw from Volstad in his first outing against the Dodgers. He has an electric fastball with good command of his changeup. He struck out six while going 8 2/3 innings allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run in the Marlins 3-1 win nine days ago. He should be tough against a Braves team who is coming off a rough weekend, dropping two of three to the lowly Washington Nationals including a 15-6 drubbing yesterday.

The Braves are one of the major's worst road teams with a record of 15-32. Jorge Campillo will get the start for the Braves. After a strong start the right hander has cooled off some and comes into the game just 1-2 in his last three with an ERA of 5.00. The Braves are just 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall. He lasted only four innings in his only appearance against the Marlins giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in only 4 innings pitched inlcluding two homer's. The Braves are hitting just .202 against right handers the last 10 games.Play on the Florida Marlins for 1 unit.
 

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Jimmy The Moose

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games to open up a series. Detroit is 16-7 in their last 23 games following a win. Miner makes his first start of the season tonight. The Tigers are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Detroit has also won 6 of his last 8 road starts. The Royals are 3-10 in theor last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. KC is 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The Royals beat up on the Tigers early in the season but tonight Detroit wins. Play on the Detroit Tigers +.
 

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Seattle vs Lester

When the Mariners host Jon Lester and the Red Sox in Seattle this evening they'll do so knowing they've beat Boston in 11 of the last 14 games on this field. In addition, Jon Lester's road ERA is a full run worse than his home ERA this season. Swith that, we'll look for the BoSox to dip to 5-15 away on Mondays here tonight.
 

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James Patrick Sports

Indians vs. Angels

The Angels are lethal on Monday as they have won 13 and lost just 6. Tonight’s starter Santana has won 35 of 51 home starts, while his opponent Paul Byrd is a hopeless 1-10 in his road starts. Our Monday selection in Major League Baseball is Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
 

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Bobby Maxwell

Chicago Cubs at ARIZONA +125

We are going to grab the plus-money in this one and play the D’Backs at home. Remember the Cubs are having a great season but they haven’t been much on the road, going 21-28 away from Wrigley.

Chicago is 5-11 in its last 16 on the road and a horrendous 7-25 in their last 32 trips to Arizona.

Plus Arizona has Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23 ERA) on the mound today and this guy has owned the Cubs in his career. The D’Backs are 10-0 in his last 10 starts against Chicago and 7-0 at Chase Field when he takes the mound against them.

The D’Backs are 55-27 when Johnson starts in a series opener and they are 14-6 in their last 20 Monday games.

Meanwhile the Cubs have newly acquired Rich Harden on the mound and they are just 3-9 when facing a team with a winning home record and 2-5 on the road against southpaws.

Let’s get the plus-money and play the D’Backs tonight.

2* ARIZONA
 

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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Brewers +106

The Brewers have won 4 straight and they are a dominant 13-4 in their last 17 vs. the National League Central. The Brewers are also 11-3 in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Milwaukee has won 4 of the last 5 meetings and it has the edge again here. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in Pineiro's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Brew Crew at a great price.
 
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HONDO

Due to Manny being Manny - Delcahmen, that is - Hondo went belly up with the Bosawx yesterday and saw his ample collection of dead presidents tumble to 695 tartabulls.

Tonight, it's the Fish over the foul-on-the-road Braves - 10 units on Volstad.
 
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Spreitzer's MLB LINE ERROR GAME OF THE WEEK! *26-9, 74% Run!

I'm laying the price with the Marlins on Monday. Tonight's moneyline is ridiculous, as far as I'm concerned.

The Marlins minus the price is the play Thanks! GL! Scott.



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Scott Spreitzer's MLB Monday Night MISMATCH! *13-2, 87% Run!

I'm laying the price with the Cardinals on Monday. Toss in his 3.47 ERA in 10 career starts at this venue and we have the making of a Monday night Mismatch.

I'm laying the price with the Cardinals. Thanks! GL! Scott.<!-- / message -->
 
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INDIAN COWBOY

Monday's Comp Selection

Comp selections are never the pod, but one of the premium selections on the card. It adds a little more to the thread each day and I simply believe if you put something out, it should be something that you are actually playing.

Angels/Indians Over 8.5 (Bonus Play)

Normally I'm not a fan of taking overs with Santana, but he comes off a great start and is in for a little bit of let down here and remember the Indians are looking to show some heart after a terrible first half and they had a decent home stand where they at least played better, heck, the Angels could get quite a few runs on Byrd alone as he comes off one of his few half-decent starts and I think this game is likely to be more competitive than expected as I have this at possibly 10 runs, given that the over is 5-0 for the Indians of late on the road, the over is 4-0 when Byrd faces a winning team meaning his pitching does not hold up as well as the over is 4-0 for Santana following a quality appearance, I'll take my chances here on the over.

research:

The Indians had a good home stand of late, but now have to hit the road where they are 17-32 on the year, Byrd is 3-10 on the year and the juice on Santana shows how bad the year has been for the Indians and Byrd, Byrd hasn't picked up a win since June 6th, the Indians have lost 9 of the last 10 games he has started, he has been giving up a ton of hits and has not put together back to back quality starts in quite some time and his last start can be considered quality for his standards this year, Santana is 11-3 this year and comes off a dominating performance at Oakland where he gave up 0 runs in 7 innings in what was a bounce-back game for him, he has at times though been having trouble putting together back to back starts, but one has to lean on the Indians run-line here, I'm not a fan of the run-line but it has value here. This is likely to be a high scoring game as an 8.5 line with Byrd is fairly small. The question is, can the Indians score as the Angels should be able to get to Byrd.
 
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Cajun-Sports


Game: Toronto Blue Jays (Litsch) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Liz) 8:05 EST
Prediction: OVER 10 (+100)

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

Analysis:

Baltimore plays host to the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night in the opening game of a four-game set between these two teams.

The Orioles have been competitive this season and that success has come in large part to their bullpen. Their bullpen has posted an ERA of 3.49 but overuse has depleted their effectiveness lately.

The last six games have seen only Olson and Guthrie pitch at least six innings in their outings. The lack of productivity from the Orioles starters has forced the relievers to pitch over 8 innings in just the last two games allowing five runs and eleven hits. They gave up two runs and four hits in 3 2/3 innings of work in a 5 to 1 loss to the Tigers on Sunday.

Baltimore will send Radhames Liz to the bump on Monday with his 3-2 record and 7.57 ERA. The right-hander is coming off the worst start of his brief career, allowing eight runs and six hits in 2 1/3 innings as Baltimore lost 12-1 to Boston on July 12. He's failed to go at least four innings in three of his eight starts, and has never pitched more than 6 1/3 in his career. Liz also has given up 12 runs in six innings while losing his last two starts.

Toronto will send Jesse Litsch to the hill with his 8-6 record and 4.16 ERA. Over his last two starts we see his ERA has skyrocketed to 10.13 while losing both starts.

After beginning the season 7-1, Litsch has won once in his last eight outings. The right-hander gave up eight runs three of those earned and seven hits in 2 2/3 innings as Toronto lost 9-4 to the New York Yankees on July 12. Litsch is 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts against the Orioles.

Data base research supports our selection on the Over in tonight?s contest between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Toronto is 4-1 Over their last 5 when their opponent allowed at least 5 runs in their previous game, 10-3 Over their last 13 versus the AL East, 8-3 Over their last 11 road games versus right-handed starters, 13-5-1 Over their last 19 versus right-handed starters overall. Baltimore is 10-2-2 Over versus the AL East, 22-6-3 Over their last 31 after suffering a SU loss, 10-3-1 Over their last 14 after allowing 5 or more runs in their previous game, 23-7-1 Over their last 31 as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 19-7-1 Over their last 27 overall and Liz is 10-1 Over his last 11 starts overall. SERIES: 12-1 Over their last 13 overall and 5-1 Over their last 6 played in Baltimore.

Our Pitcher Power Index indicates Liz will allow the Blue Jays to plate 5.6 runs while Litsch gets touched for 6.1 runs in tonight?s contest. Our Team Power Index Ratings predict an Over in tonight?s game with a final score of Baltimore 7 and Toronto 5.

The combination of poor starting pitching and the Orioles bullpen struggling should be enough to send this game well over the posted total.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* TORONTO / BALTIMORE OVER 10 (+100)
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE


Milwaukee (55-43) at St. Louis (57-43)
Two teams that have been red-hot since the All-Star break square off at Busch Stadium in St. Louis when the Brewers come calling with Seth McClung (5-5, 4.16 ERA) on the hill against the Cardinals? Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52).
Milwaukee went out to San Francisco after the break and took three straight against the Giants, including Sunday?s 7-4 victory. The Brewers have won four straight overall and have taken four of five from the Cardinals and lead the season series 5-4. However, in St. Louis the Brewers are just 1-6 in their last six visits.
St. Louis swept a four-game set from the Padres to open the second half, including Sunday?s dramatic 9-5 win thanks to a walk-off grand slam off the bat of Aaron Miles. The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of their last seven overall, and they are 15-7 at home against teams with a winning record.
McClung is 0-2 in his last three outings with a 3.86 ERA and he?s lost his last two even though he didn?t allow more than three earned runs in either start. In his last road outing, he held the D-Backs to two runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Milwaukee victory.
The Cardinals are 3-0 in Pineiro?s last three starts even though he got drilled back on July 13, giving up six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings but his offense bailed him out with an 11-6 win. He faced these Brewers back on May 10 and gave up two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 St. Louis win. The Cardinals have won seven of his last nine outings against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-0 in Pineiro?s last four starts against teams with a winning record and 8-2 in McClung?s last 10 overall. Meanwhile the over is on runs of 8-1 for the Brewers overall and 8-3 when they are a road ?dog. The over is also 7-1 when the Cardinals are a home favorite and 8-2-1 when they face a right-handed starter.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS




AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (55-43) at N.Y. Yankees (53-45)
The Yankees try to stay perfect since the All-Star break when they send Sidney Ponson (5-1, 3.96) to the hill at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx against the Twins? Nick Blackburn (7-5, 3.65).
New York completed a three-game sweep of the A?s on Sunday with a 2-1 victory behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte. The Yankees have won eight of their last 11 overall and seven straight at home.
The Twins opened the second half by taking two of three from the Rangers, but dropped Sunday?s series finale, 1-0. Minnesota is on runs of 21-7 overall, 16-6 against right-handed starters and 8-2 in series openers.
The Yankees have dominated this rivalry, going 37-15 in the last 52 meetings and 22-8 when the two meet in the Bronx.
Ponson is 2-0 in New York since joining the Yankees and allowed just one run on five hits in six innings of a 2-1 win over the Rays on July 9. The Yankees have won all three of his outings and have scored 29 runs in the three games. Ponson?s teams are 7-3 in his last 10 starts against Minnesota and he has held the Twins to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts against them.
Blackburn has pitched well in his last three road outings but has nothing to show for it, giving up exactly two earned runs in all three but the Twins are just 1-2 in those three and 3-7 in his last 10 highway starts. Minnesota has won six of his last nine starts and that includes a short 4 1/3 innings of work against the Yankees on June 1 when he held them to one run on five hits in a 5-1 Twins? win.
The over is 11-5 for Minnesota on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-2 when the Twins play on Monday. Meanwhile the under is on runs of 20-7-1 overall for the Yankees, 14-3-1 as a home favorite and 6-0 in series openers.
In this rivalry, the under is 24-9-2 in New York, but the over is 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES





Oakland (51-47) at Tampa Bay (57-40)
It?s a battle of southpaws today when the A?s send Dana Eveland (7-6, 3.49) to the mound at Tropicana Field in Tampa to battle the Rays? Scott Kazmir (7-5, 3.04).
Oakland has dropped five straight, including a 2-1 loss Sunday that completed a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees over the weekend. The A?s managed just five runs in the three games in the Bronx and have not scored more than three runs in a game since July 11. They have won nine of their last 10 series openers and six of their last seven on Monday but they are just 2-9 in their last 11 against southpaws.
Tampa took two of three at home against the Blue Jays over the weekend, but dropped Sunday?s contest 9-4. The Rays had lost seven straight before the All-Star break but still hold one of the best home marks in baseball at 38-15. They are on further streaks of 22-5 at home against teams with a winning record and 16-5 in series openers.
Tampa has won five of the last six meetings with the A?s but Oakland holds the long-term advantage, going 57-26 in the last 83 series clashes.
Eveland has held the opposition to three runs or less in eight straight outings and the A?s have alternated wins in his last 10. In his lone start against Tampa on May 21 he held the Rays to one run on three hits and got a complete-game 9-1 victory. On the downside, the A?s are just 1-4 in Eveland?s last five on the road and 0-4 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Kazmir hasn?t been his usual dominant self lately, going 0-2 in his last three outings with a 6.19 ERA and the Rays are just 3-4 in his last seven. At home he is 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA and he has dominated Oakland, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last eight starts dating back to 2005. He beat the A?s back on May 20, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Tampa is 6-1 in Kazmir?s last seven at home but 0-4 when he gets seven or more days of rest.
The under is 12-5-2 in Eveland?s last 19 starts and 6-0 when he starts a series opener. Meanwhile the under is 21-8-2 in Kazmir?s last 31 against teams with a winning record and 11-5-2 when he faces the A.L. West.
Overall for the Rays, the under is on runs of 20-7 against lefties and 12-1 at home against southpaws. For Oakland, the under is 20-8 in series openers and 8-2 against left-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in Tampa, but the under is 5-1-1 when Kazmir is on the hill.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY
 

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