OTK, you seem like a really smart capper.
I have been doing bases for a year or 2 trying to figure stuff out.
recently I been fading the public with discretion and its been going alright. I also tail good people cause I dont have to much faith in myself.
Anyway, what do you look at when you make your picks, and do you have any advice you could toss my way.
Thanks
Fading the public can be a very smart and easy way to cap games, and make money. I know guys where that's all they do and they are consistently making money. I think you have to pick spots when you're doing something like that, and if you do it well you can win money without even knowing who you're betting on or why. Reverse line movement is the best way to find "fade the public" picks.
When looking at games, totals specifically, I like to look for underrated pitchers that have been solid, but might not get the respect of the public. Nick Blackburn would fall into that list today so I went with the under. I also sometimes like to let the lines tell me who's going to win. When you have two pitchers like Ponson and Blackburn that aren't big public names, you have the Yankees who the public always thinks of as an over team (which isn't true. The Yankees have been one of the best under bets all year long), and you have the line shaded towards the over at -105. They know most betters will take the Yankees over with Ponson on the mound with the lower juice, so the smart play is the under.
Cleveland/LA Angels is again a game the general public would think would go under because neither have the reputation of a good hitting team. Cleveland has been hitting very well recently though and still has a lineup capable of putting up 5-6 runs in a game. Cleveland will probably be good for some over until they are no longer undervalued and hit a hitting slump once again.
I like to fade the public like yourself, but not as a strict fade. If I like a play and the public is hitting the other side hard I will always play it. I won't blindly make a play just because the public likes the other side though.
Boston is a pretty public play, and I am actually not a big Jon Lester fan, but this is a pretty big game for the Sox IMO. TB has already took first from them again and with the Rays have a fairly easy series up ahead with the A's at home the Sox can't afford to keep dropping further back. They have to win this series against the M's or they risk falling 3-4 games behind the Rays.
Good luck tonight, who you looking at playing?
