FLORIDA +1.10 over Atlanta
Let’s see, the Braves dropped two of three at home to the Nationals and allowed 23 runs in the final two games. Losing to that team in your own barn is bad enough and it’s not easy to do. Now the Braves will take their 15-32 road record to Florida and the good news for us is that they’re favored. Huh? The Fish just took two of three from the Phillies and beat Cole Hamels yesterday. They’ll send their top pitching prospect, Chris Volstad to the mound and this kid really looks like the real deal. He went 8.2 innings against the Dodgers in his debut and allowed just five hits and one run. He induced 15 ground ball outs in that game, struck out six and didn’t look a bit out of place. Of course that was in L.A. and one game doesn’t mean a whole lot but what have the Braves done to make anyone fearful? Jorge Campillo is a decent starter but this choice is more about playing against the Braves as a road favorite. They have a lousy 15 wins in 47 road games, they’re not playing well at all and their bullpen is about as bad as it gets. The Marlins are getting no respect here and should be favored. Play: Florida +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
Los Angeles +1.07 over COLORADO
The Rockies are coming off a four-game sweep of the Pirates but that doesn’t impress us that much. The Pirates have the leagues worst ERA and they paid for it at this venue. Fact is, the Rockies are still 43-57 and prior to the break they lost four straight and scored a total of two runs in those four losses. Then we have Kip Wells going for the home team, a guy that hasn’t started since April 1 and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since April 28<SUP> </SUP>th. In three rehab starts at Colorado Springs he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA after allowing 32 hits, 25 runs (18 earned) in 18.1 innings. Does he look ready? Not even close. Eric Stults is not overpowering but he’s effective and his 2.67 ERA is hard to overlook in this spot. Anyway, we’re playing against Kip Wells here, a guy that the Rockies signed for 3.1 million this year and that’s the only reason they’re sending him out there. He couldn’t get minor-leaguers out and chances are great he’ll give up plenty here. Play: Los Angeles +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
<o></o>
Milwaukee +1.06 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of seven and that counts for something, however, they beat the Padres and Pirates over that stretch so don’t put too much weight on their cureent run. Fact is, Prior to beating that duo, the Cards dropped two of three to the Phillies, two of three to the Cubs, split a four-game set with the Mets, and lost two of three to the Tigers. In other words, when this host plays quality clubs their chances aren’t so good. They’ll face one of those quality teams here and with Joel Pineiro going you can expect the Brewers to score some runs. In three July starts Pineiro has allowed 26 hits in 17 innings for a BAA of .361. His ERA has been steadily climbing for weeks after a decent start to the year but the fact is, Pineiro is a below average starter that cannot be trusted. Meanwhile, the Brewers are coming off a three game sweep in San Fran in which they beat Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum and that trio could crack any rotation in the league. Oh, the Brewers scored at least seven or more in each game for a total of 24 runs in the three games and they’ll take a huge step down in class against Pineiro. Seth McClung is not that recognizable but he is impressive. He’s always had great stuff and has put it together this year. He has 64 K’s in 75 frames and has allowed just 66 hits. The Brewers are hot, they’re excited as hell and they surely have a better chance of winning here then they do of losing. This is one live pooch indeed. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o></o>
<o></o>
San Diego +1.21 over CINCINNATI
There are certain pitchers in this league that just don’t deserve to be favored and Homer Bailey is one of them for sure. Bailey is 0-2 at Great American in two starts and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in either of them. In those two starts covering just six innings he allowed 12 hits, five jacks, 10 runs and walked six for an ERA of 15.00 and a BAA of .444. That’s two months for some pitchers, not two games. He has control problems and has walked more batters this year then he’s struck out. This is not the venue to have control problems at and when you throw in the fact that his stuff is average at best then the result is a disaster waiting to happen. The Padres are a bad team but their bats came alive with 17 runs in St. Louis over the weekend. Josh Banks has some decent road numbers (3.56 ERA and a BAA of .250 in 30 innings) and won’t need to be nearly as sharp as that, as the Padres should be able to score a bunch off this lifetime stiff. Bailey a –1.30 favorite is ludicrous. Play: San Diego +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
<o></o>
Minnesota +1.30 over NY YANKEES
The Yankees are coming off a sweep of the A’s and have now won seven straight at the Stadium. However, if the A’s had any offense at all they would’ve taken two of three, as the Yanks offense continues to struggle and in fact, has scored three runs or less in five of their last eight games. Furthermore, Sidney Ponson laying juice is about as appealing as driving in New York during rush hour. Sure, he’s won some games but he’s escaped a ton of jams and these Twins usually come through in the clutch. Minnesota has won 23 of their last 31 games and they have some rock-solid bats in their line-up. Nick Blackburn is here to stay. He’s been inconsistent at times but there’s no denying he has major league stuff and can absolutely dazzle when he’s on his game. Blackburn has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six games and over that includes his last two games at Detroit and Boston. Big pitching edge to the Twinkies here and frankly, their offense might not be the second best on the field either. Play: Minnesota +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
Let’s see, the Braves dropped two of three at home to the Nationals and allowed 23 runs in the final two games. Losing to that team in your own barn is bad enough and it’s not easy to do. Now the Braves will take their 15-32 road record to Florida and the good news for us is that they’re favored. Huh? The Fish just took two of three from the Phillies and beat Cole Hamels yesterday. They’ll send their top pitching prospect, Chris Volstad to the mound and this kid really looks like the real deal. He went 8.2 innings against the Dodgers in his debut and allowed just five hits and one run. He induced 15 ground ball outs in that game, struck out six and didn’t look a bit out of place. Of course that was in L.A. and one game doesn’t mean a whole lot but what have the Braves done to make anyone fearful? Jorge Campillo is a decent starter but this choice is more about playing against the Braves as a road favorite. They have a lousy 15 wins in 47 road games, they’re not playing well at all and their bullpen is about as bad as it gets. The Marlins are getting no respect here and should be favored. Play: Florida +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o>Los Angeles +1.07 over COLORADO
The Rockies are coming off a four-game sweep of the Pirates but that doesn’t impress us that much. The Pirates have the leagues worst ERA and they paid for it at this venue. Fact is, the Rockies are still 43-57 and prior to the break they lost four straight and scored a total of two runs in those four losses. Then we have Kip Wells going for the home team, a guy that hasn’t started since April 1 and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since April 28<SUP> </SUP>th. In three rehab starts at Colorado Springs he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA after allowing 32 hits, 25 runs (18 earned) in 18.1 innings. Does he look ready? Not even close. Eric Stults is not overpowering but he’s effective and his 2.67 ERA is hard to overlook in this spot. Anyway, we’re playing against Kip Wells here, a guy that the Rockies signed for 3.1 million this year and that’s the only reason they’re sending him out there. He couldn’t get minor-leaguers out and chances are great he’ll give up plenty here. Play: Los Angeles +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Milwaukee +1.06 over ST. LOUIS
The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of seven and that counts for something, however, they beat the Padres and Pirates over that stretch so don’t put too much weight on their cureent run. Fact is, Prior to beating that duo, the Cards dropped two of three to the Phillies, two of three to the Cubs, split a four-game set with the Mets, and lost two of three to the Tigers. In other words, when this host plays quality clubs their chances aren’t so good. They’ll face one of those quality teams here and with Joel Pineiro going you can expect the Brewers to score some runs. In three July starts Pineiro has allowed 26 hits in 17 innings for a BAA of .361. His ERA has been steadily climbing for weeks after a decent start to the year but the fact is, Pineiro is a below average starter that cannot be trusted. Meanwhile, the Brewers are coming off a three game sweep in San Fran in which they beat Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Tim Lincecum and that trio could crack any rotation in the league. Oh, the Brewers scored at least seven or more in each game for a total of 24 runs in the three games and they’ll take a huge step down in class against Pineiro. Seth McClung is not that recognizable but he is impressive. He’s always had great stuff and has put it together this year. He has 64 K’s in 75 frames and has allowed just 66 hits. The Brewers are hot, they’re excited as hell and they surely have a better chance of winning here then they do of losing. This is one live pooch indeed. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units). <o
></o><o
></o>San Diego +1.21 over CINCINNATI
There are certain pitchers in this league that just don’t deserve to be favored and Homer Bailey is one of them for sure. Bailey is 0-2 at Great American in two starts and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning in either of them. In those two starts covering just six innings he allowed 12 hits, five jacks, 10 runs and walked six for an ERA of 15.00 and a BAA of .444. That’s two months for some pitchers, not two games. He has control problems and has walked more batters this year then he’s struck out. This is not the venue to have control problems at and when you throw in the fact that his stuff is average at best then the result is a disaster waiting to happen. The Padres are a bad team but their bats came alive with 17 runs in St. Louis over the weekend. Josh Banks has some decent road numbers (3.56 ERA and a BAA of .250 in 30 innings) and won’t need to be nearly as sharp as that, as the Padres should be able to score a bunch off this lifetime stiff. Bailey a –1.30 favorite is ludicrous. Play: San Diego +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
<o
></o>Minnesota +1.30 over NY YANKEES
The Yankees are coming off a sweep of the A’s and have now won seven straight at the Stadium. However, if the A’s had any offense at all they would’ve taken two of three, as the Yanks offense continues to struggle and in fact, has scored three runs or less in five of their last eight games. Furthermore, Sidney Ponson laying juice is about as appealing as driving in New York during rush hour. Sure, he’s won some games but he’s escaped a ton of jams and these Twins usually come through in the clutch. Minnesota has won 23 of their last 31 games and they have some rock-solid bats in their line-up. Nick Blackburn is here to stay. He’s been inconsistent at times but there’s no denying he has major league stuff and can absolutely dazzle when he’s on his game. Blackburn has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six games and over that includes his last two games at Detroit and Boston. Big pitching edge to the Twinkies here and frankly, their offense might not be the second best on the field either. Play: Minnesota +1.30 (Risking 2 units).
