Service Plays Tuesday 7/22/08

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty won with the Brewers and Braves last night.

Today it's the Twins.

HONDO

The Fish were no drop in the bucket last night for Hondo as they flopped against Los Bravos to lower the earnings to 645 dalrymples.

Tonight, he'll take a flier on the Phils out at Flush ing's Lame Duck Dump - 10 units on Blanton.

armvin Sports

7/22/2008 Philadelphia Phillies 160

7/22/2008 Milwaukee Brewers 124

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">SAPKOWSKI For 22/07

Best bet:
Tampa Bay Rays

Premium
(65-40 L101, Yesterday 0-2 (MIN Twins"L",CHI Cubs"L")
New York Mets

Free picks
(61-39 L98, 2-0 Yesterday (BAL Orioles over 10"W",PIT Pirates over 10"W")
Minnesota Twins
St Louis Cardinals
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

STU FINER

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are a better home team than most people think. This is a team that just doesn’t get enough credit. We know they play in an ultra tough division. That is even more of a reason to be impressed. The Orioles would be leading an NL West right now at this point in the season. Being a few games under .500 is an accomplishment in the AL East. It is by far the toughest division in all of a baseball.

The Blue Jays send Shaun Marcum to the hill tonight. This will be Shaun’s first start in over a month. Marcum has been on the disabled list since June 19. It will not be an easy transition back to the rotation here tonight. Shaun has always been a guy to have a high pitch count. Word out of Toronto is they are looking for just five innings max for Shaun. That translates to pitching four innings and say a prayer. The Baltimore Orioles will be able to win the second game of this series behind their south-paw.

Baltimore Orioles (+)

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees

We like the Twins to take this one here in the Bronx. The Twins have played such strong baseball for such a long time. This isn’t a team that has played well for a week or so. This is a team that has played so good for 30 plus games.

You have to take out Kevin Slowey’s last start. This guy has been so good for the Twins. He hasn’t lost since June 8, 2008 against the Chicago White Sox. In fact Kevin is 4-0 in his last five starts. In three of those starts he allowed two runs or fewer in each of them. Kevin has big time stuff. He has allowed just 80 hits in 82 innings. What is most impressive is no doubt his control. Kevin has walked just 13 batters in 82.1 innings.

The Yankees are a very patient baseball team. They feast on pitchers that don’t throw strikes. Kevin will get the job done on the road.

Minnesota Twins (+)

Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

Andy Sonnanstine has been so good for the Rays this season. Andy has pitched well this season for the Rays. Actually he has pitched better than well this season. Andy has already compiled ten wins on the season. Andy has earned his victories. Even better than his ten wins this season, has been the record for the Tampa Bay Rays in his starts.

Andy is 10-4 on the season. The Tampa Bay Rays are 14-5 in his nineteen starts. 14-5 is nothing to just brush to the side. Winning at almost a 75% clip is something you have to look at it. Andy has been pitching just as well as of late too. Sure his last start wasn’t good but previous five starts were. We are not going to let one poor start sway us. Andy has lost just one game since he end of May. What else can you expect from this guy?

Tampa Bay Rays (-)

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Once again we just can’t ignore the line for this game. We are not a fan of just going off of reputation. We don’t allow big names to get us on or off certain games. There is no doubt that the Tigers have more talent on paper than the Royals. No one can tell you other-wise. Even big Royal fans know the Tigers are better on paper. The game isn’t played on paper folks. The game is played on the diamond where there are many other factors.

Tonight the Royals face an aging pitcher in Kenny Rogers. Kenny has just been average this season. On the road Kenny has been getting hit hard. It is tough for any pitcher to throw on the road, especially an older veteran who is all about routine.

Kenny Rogers is just 4-4 on the road this season with an ERA at almost 5.00 (4.86 to be exact). Look for the Royals to win the second game of this series.

Kansas City Royals (-)

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox

We like the White Sox t get the job done at home tonight against the Rangers. The Rangers are a team that depends just on offense. If any of you out there pay attention, you know that hitting comes and goes during the course of a season. It especially comes and goes for the Texas Rangers.

When they talk about the effect of the “Dog Days” of summer, they are really taking about the Texas Rangers. Playing thirty or forty games in 110 degree weather does not help a team stay locked in. Sure this game is on the road but their offense has already begun to slow down.

The Rangers are just an average team on the road. The White Sox on the other hand are more than fifteen games over the .500 mark. Look for them behind Jose Contreras to get the job done.

Chicago White Sox (-)

Cleveland Indians at LA Angels

The Angels are just a team that finds ways to win ball games. When you look at their team on paper you may not think they are that strong. You will say they have an average line-up, an average rotation and a solid bull-pen. They have the “x” factors though. They win tight ball games, they have a hall of fame player in the middle of their line-up and they have this season’s best closer in Rodriguez. Can you believe this guy already has 40 saves?

The Angels also have something that goes un-noticed. They have fantastic defense. Just take a look at their out-field. They have gold glove Tori Hunter patrolling it and two corner men with big time throwing arms.

The Indians are a dead baseball team folks. They are fifteen games under the .500 mark away from Ohio. They are still without their two best hitters and have thrown in the white flag for the 2008 season.

LA Angels (-)

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners

The Red Sox are too good of a team to keep up their losing ways on the road. We are not going to tell you that they are all of a sudden going to be a good road team, but come on we aren’t asking for that much. It shouldn’t be that difficult to beat the Seattle Mariners even in Seattle.

Daisuke Matsuzaka has been the Red Sox best pitcher this season. Here is a guy that has lost just one game all season. Yes his 10-1 mark is as real as it gets. Even more impressive than his ten wins is the team’s record. So many times people worry about just the starting pitcher’s record. That can lead to many mistakes. The Red Sox though are 13-3 in Dice K’s sixteen starts.

Dice pitched back to back two hitters in his last two road starts. Yes four hits in his last two road starts which included just one run. Look for the Sox to smack the Mariners here in Seattle.

Boston Red Sox (-)


National League

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins

Look for the Braves to start getting on a little hot streak here in this second half of baseball. The Braves are too talented to continue their losing ways. In this division they still have more than a shot. In fact we feel they have as much talent as anyone in the division. They have Tim Hudson and Jorge Campillo at the top of their rotation. The Braves also have a ton of talent in their line-up.

This is a team that can send out all-stars and hall of fame players at their every day positions. Chipper Jones who is still hitting over .370 bats in the three hole. Mark Teixeira bats clean-up and we all know how good this guy is in the second half of the season. Last year he hit over .330 with massive power numbers in the summer months. They also have a very under-rated Brian McCann who catches for them. He was the only other all-star for the Atlanta Braves.

Bottom line this team can pound the ball. Their pitching always picks it up when it matters. Look for the Braves to beat up Mark Hendrickson, he started off well but has cooled down dramatically.

Atlanta Braves (+)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

This line is just too good to ass up for the Phillies. These two teams are so equal. They have been batting for more than just the 2008 season. We understand the pitching match-up is an advantage for the New York Mets but this number is just too high.

Johan Santana was no doubt the Mets biggest acquisition of the off-season. You have to face facts though, this guy hasn’t lived up to his contract or his reputation. Johan is just 8-7 on the season.

Santana is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing five runs and six hits in just four innings on Thursday. This guy had the audacity to blame the “Piano Man” for some of his struggles. Yes Johan Santana couldn’t get in to Shea Stadium because of two Billy Joel concerts. Yes, Johan Santana couldn’t find a place to pitch. That is what he was saying.

Johan just doesn’t have the make-up for New York. He has lost or pitched badly in every big game so far this season. Expect more of the same tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies (+)

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

Nice pitching match-up here in Cincinnati. Unlike last nights game we look for these pitchers to hold down both offenses early tonight. In fact we expect this game to be pretty low scoring all the way through.

Jake has been the only pitcher worth trusting for the Padres during this 2008 campaign. Sure he is only 7-6 but his team is almost twenty games under .500 so that is more than respectable.

Jake has pitched 101.2 innings this season and has allowed just 87 hits. Overall Jake has an ERA of 2.66. Jake actually pitched great in his last start if it wasn’t for a few long-balls. Tonight he will make sure to get the ball down and keep the Reds off the score-board.

San Diego Padres (-)

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals continue to defy their critics. The Cardinals just go out there and do their job and win ball games. This team was able to stay afloat even without the games best player. When they did that people should have known they are not pretenders, they are contenders.

Albert is back and boy has he been good. This guy just puts up big season after big season. This season Albert (in just 86 games) has hit eighteen home runs to go along with his .359 batting average. How about his on base % this season? Albert is over .470 this season. See this season unlike last he has some protection. Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel have done a great job of hitting behind Albert. Make no mistake about it, Albert is still the game’s best player by far.

St. Louis Cardinals (-)

Los Angels Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Frankly we were surprised to see the line so high in this game. That is not going to be enough to get us off the game though. We have really loved the way the Rockies have played since the all-star break. We aren’t saying they are all the way back, but in this NL West we know that anything is possible.

Ubaldo Jimenez has really been locked in on the last month. The Rockies send their young stud to the bump tonight and they should be more than confident in him. Ubaldo has won three of his last four starts. In fact Ubaldo hasn’t allowed more than four runs in over ten starts. Yes May was the last time Jimenez had a truly bad start, that start came on the road as well.

Jimenez has been great at home all season and we don’t expect anything different here tonight. The Dodgers are still a soft hitting club.

Colorado Rockies (-)

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

Important game for these two teams tonight. We don’t exactly have the same pitching match-up as last night but that is okay. Don’t let last night’s game sway you too much. It isn’t quite clear what these two teams will be for the 2008 season. One thing is for sure though, they both will want to play home playoff series.

In the topsy turvey 2008 baseball season the Chicago Cubs are the best of the junior circuit. That is no thanks to their road record though. Sure we have to give credit to them, they are the best home team in baseball. They are even a better home team than the Boston Red Sox. What does that mean though? Does that help them on the road? Well if it does it hasn’t happened yet. They are fresh off losing a road series to the Astros and will now have to work awfully hard to win their division. They have two capable teams chasing them down (Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals).

The Diamondbacks have a lot of the same issues as the Cubs. The difference for them tonight is the fact they are in their building. Micah Owings has shown flashes of brilliance this season. He will be able to beat a very weak road Chicago Cubs team. Game two belongs to the Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-)


Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants

We like the Giants to get the job done at home here tonight. Remember even though it doesn’t look like it some team has to actually win the game tonight. The Nationals had their best offense out-put this season. Even their manager doesn’t believe in them though. He was quoted as saying that “two games don’t dictate a season.”

Barry Zito has actually pitched better as of late. No he isn’t going to win another CY Young but he is capable of shutting down a bad Nationals team. Before the break Barry went 2-1 with an ERA of just 3.42.

The Giants just traded Ray Durham and have now made the full fledge commitment to their youth movement. This team will be scrappy the rest of the season. Zito was able to beat the Giants the last time he pitched against the Nationals. In fact the Giants have taken all four games against the Nationals this season. Only one game was even close. Take the Giants at home.

San Francisco Giants (-)

SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (53-46) at N.Y. Mets (53-46)

Two of the top three teams in the N.L. East kick off a three-game set at Shea Stadium in New York when the Phillies send newly acquired Joe Blanton (5-12, 4.96 ERA) to the hill opposite Mets’ southpaw Johan Santana (8-7, 3.10).

Philadelphia lost two of three in Florida in a three-game weekend set, but they’ve won five of their last eight overall. The Mets had a 10-game winning streak snapped on Friday and split a four-game series in Cincinnati, including a 7-5 extra-inning victory on Sunday.

New York has dominated the rivalry this season, winning seven of the last nine. The success comes on the heels of a nine-game losing streak to Philadelphia dating back to last season. At Shea, the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine visits.

Blanton is making his first start for the Phillies after a tough 20 outings with the A’s. Oakland was just 2-6 in his last eight starts and he gave up four or more earned runs in five of those outings. He’s made two career starts against the Mets and dominated them both times, allowing no runs and eight hits in 15 innings of work.

Santana is a mediocre 4-3 at home this season but has posted an impressive 2.64 ERA in front of the home fans. On Thursday, Santana gave up five runs on six hits in four innings in Cincinnati but his offense bailed him out with a 10-8 victory. In his last start at Shea he blanked the Giants on three hits for five innings as the Mets scored a 5-0 win. In two starts against the Phillies this season, Santana has given up five runs on 10 hits in 15 innings as the two teams split the games. In three career starts, he’s 1-0 with a 2.75 against Philadelphia in 19 2/3 innings of work.

The Mets are 7-2 when Santana opens a series but just 2-5 in his last seven as a favorite and winless in his last four against a team with a winning record. New York is on further runs of 47-21 following an off day, 8-2 in its last 10 against right-handed starters and unbeaten in its last seven at Shea.

The Phillies are on runs of 38-15 in series openers and 9-2 their last 11 as underdogs.

For Philadelphia, the under is on runs of 11-5 in their last 16 against the N.L. East and 19-7 in their last 26 against winning teams. The under is also 10-2-1 in the Mets’ last 13 as a favorite, 8-1 for them at home and 5-0 in their last five against right-handed starters. In this rivalry, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 matchups at Shea. Take the under.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Milwaukee (56-43) at St. Louis (57-44)

The Brewers hope to continue their recent success against the Cardinals when they send Jeff Suppan (5-6, 4.71) to the mound at Busch Stadium to take on St. Louis’ Kyle Lohse (12-2, 3.35).

Milwaukee has won five of its last six meetings with the Cardinals, including Monday’s 6-3, 10-inning victory. The Brewers are a perfect 4-0 since the All-Star break and have won five straight overall. Monday’s win also snapped a five-game winning streak for St. Louis and pulled Milwaukee into a second-place tie with the Cardinals in the N.L. Central race.

Suppan has gotten knocked around lately, going 1-1 in his last three starts with a 9.64 ERA. On July 6 against the Pirates he gave up six runs in three innings but his offense came through and scored an 11-6 victory. The Brewers have won two of his last three starts even though he’s allowed four runs or more in each outing. For his career, Suppan is 6-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 10 starts against the Cardinals and back on May 11 he held them to one run on six hits in seven innings of a 5-3 victory.

Lohse has been brilliant this season at home, going 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and on Thursday he held the Padres to two runs on seven hits in seven innings of a 4-3 win. The Cardinals are 11-1 in his last 12 starts, but they have lost both his outings against Milwaukee this season with Lohse giving up a combined six runs in 11 innings. He is 3-3 with a 5.50 ERA in 10 career outings against the Brewers.

Milwaukee has gone 17-5 in Suppan’s last 22 starts against N.L. Central rivals but it is just 1-8 in his last nine on the road against a team with a winning record. The Brewers are on runs of 12-3 against teams with a winning record, 14-4 against the N.L. Central and 21-7 on Tuesdays, but they are just 23-48 in their last 71 as a road ‘dog.

St. Louis is a perfect 6-0 in Lohse’s last six in front of the home fans and 15-8 in its last 23 at home against winning teams.

The over is 8-2 in Milwaukee’s last 10 overall and 4-1 in its last five with Suppan on the hill. Meanwhile the under is 7-3-2 in Lohse’s last 12 home starts, but the over is 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last nine as a home favorite and 8-3-1 in their last 12 against a right-handed starter.

In this rivalry, the under is 6-3-1 in the 10 meetings this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (55-44) at N.Y. Yankees (54-45)

The Yankees shoot for their ninth straight win at Yankee Stadium when they send Darrell Rasner (5-7, 4.97) to the mound to face the Twins’ Kevin Slowey (6-6, 4.26) in the middle game of this three-game set.

New York pounded Minnesota 12-4 on Monday, improving to 23-8 at home against the Twins and 38-15 overall in this series. New York is lingering in third place in the A.L. East, 4 ½ games behind the Rays while the Twins are a half-game behind the White Sox in the race for the A.L. Central.

Minnesota has won six straight with Slowey on the mound but his offense saved him on July 10 when he gave up six runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 7-6 win over the Tigers. Minnesota is 4-1 in his last five on the road and in three of those starts he held the opposition to one or zero runs. His lone start against the Yankees came last season when he gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 7-6 loss in the Bronx.

New York has lost seven of Rasner’s last nine starts, but he was able to win his last one on July 12 when he gave up four runs (three earned) in five innings of a 9-4 win in Toronto. He’s made two career starts against the Twins, including June 1 when he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-1 loss in Minnesota.

Minnesota is on slides of 0-5 when Slowey faces an A.L. East foe and 4-11 on the road against teams with a winning record, but it has won 21 of 29 overall and 16 of 23 against right-handed pitching. The Yankees are on runs of 5-2 when Rasner starts at home and 7-0 when they’re favored at home.

The over is on runs of 8-2-1 when Slowey pitches against a team with a winning record, 11-3 for the Twins on the road against a winning team and 16-5 in the second game of a series. For New York, the over is 5-1 with Rasner on the hill, but the under is 21-7-1 in the Yankees last 29 at home and 20-7-1 in their last 28 overall.

In this series, the under is 24-10-2 in the last 26 in the Bronx but the over is 5-1 in the last six overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER

Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (907) PIT Pirates and (908) HOU Astros. Take "(907) PIT Pirates".
How desperate are the Astros for pitching help? They're evidently in trade talks with the Padres to obtain Randy Wolf. Yeah, there's the Astros ticket back to contention. Let's face it, if you're an Astros fan, life sucks right now. They're not very good, and Ed Wade might be the most clueless GM in the game now that Bill Bavasi is out of work. As far as tonight goes, Paul Maholm has only won once on the road all season, but he's pitched better than that. I think he'll get some decent support tonight against Houston's Jack Cassel, and I'm siding with the Bucs to pick up a second straight win.




Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (925) DET Tigers and (926) KC Royals. Take "Over". Neither of today's starters has been dazzling this year. Stretches where they have performed ok and then stretches of bad. Kenny Rogers won his last start at Baltimore, despite allowing 11 hits and four earned runs in six innings of work. He's walked more batters on the season than he's struck out, which is never a good sign. On the road, Rogers is 4-4 with a 4.86 era. Moreover, in his two starts this year against the Royals, he's allowed 16 hits and nine earned runs in just 10 innings of work. Kyle Davies hasn't faired much better for the Royals. The Royals are just 2-4 in games at home where Davies starts. And, while Davies has a better strike out to walk ratio than Rogers, it isn't by much (20 walks to 25 strikeouts). We don't expect either pitcher to last that long here and therefore we'll go with the OVER tonight.

Jimmy The Moose

Game: San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds Jul 22 2008 7:10PM
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Reason: There haven't been many positive stats for the Padres this season. Even their ace Peavy, 7-6, isn't having his nest season. The Padres 10-4 in Peavy's last 14 starts as a road favorite. San Diego is 23-9 in his last 32 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds have lost 5 of Cueto's last 7 starts. The Reds are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. NL West opponent's. The Padres are 4-0 in Peavy's last 4 starts in Cincinnati. San Diego has won his last 8 starts vs. the Reds. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 trips to Cincinnati. Play on the San Diego Padres -.

Insider Sports Report

St. Louis -135 over Milwaukee (MLB)

ARTHUR RALPH

Chi White SOX

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, July 22nd, 7:10 PM ET

San Diego has really been struggling lately, but they snapped a six-game losing skid last night in the series opener and some pitchers just own some teams. The pitcher in question here would be Padres ace Jake Peavy and the team, Cincinnati, as Peavy owns a perfect 8-0 TSR lifetime vs. the Reds. After BB outings of scoreless ball, Peavy had an "off night" his last time out, but we look for him to rebound here.

Play on: San Diego

Computer Plays

Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Time Game Selections
7:05 p.m. Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
(R) Kevin Slowey (6-6) vs. (R) Darrell Rasner (5-7) New York Yankees -130

7:10 p.m. Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
(L) Dallas Braden (1-0) vs. (R) Andy Sonnanstine (10-4) Tampa Bay Rays -160

8:15 p.m. Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
(R) Jeff Suppan (5-6) vs. (R) Kyle Lohse (12-2) St. Louis Cardinals -140 * * *

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

DETROIT/KANSAS CITY UNDER the total of 10 runs

CAPPERS ACCESS

Tue (MLB) Cubs
Tue (MLB) Red Sox

ROCCO SPACAMURO

50 * Twins +125

SCOTT FERRALL

ANGELS -200 over Cleveland--the Angels won't let this crappy team puch them around

Oakland +150 over Tampa--It just looks too easy to bet on Sonnanstine

Baltimore -105 over Toronto--Olson over Marcum at Camden

MINNESOTA +105 over New York--Slowey can win this one because Rasner loses every time out now

ARIZONA -110 over Chi Cubs--Marquis stumbles against Owings, who's been struggling himself of late. The D'Backs have to get something going or their season will start collapsing

San Fran -120 over Washington--I've got to take 4-12 Zito over 1-6 Bergmann. The Giants have sucked ass lately (1-9 going in to Mon ngt) but it's got to end sometime--how about here

Carlo Campanella

Game: Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays Jul 22 2008 7:10PM

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

Reason: Once again Tampa Bay is in their BEST role this MLB season as we find them at an INCREDIBLE 16-1 as Home Favorites between -150 and -200 this season! They start Andy Sonnanstine on the mound to host Oakland on Tuesday. Sonnanstine wins this pitching match-up hands down, as he faces Dallas Braden, who's in a slump, allowing 11 Hits and 7 Earned Runs in his last 6 Innings Pitched. Backing Tampa Bay in our Parlays against this A's squad that's lost 6 of it's last 8 games.

7* Play On Tampa Bay

wizard of odds?