Tuesday Big Play

11-15 -3.00 units

Took the weekend and today off waiting to try and find a good play to hammer. I am going to try and stop forcing plays and look for real good spots. Tomorrow I am taking the St Louis Cardinals First 5 Innings for a nickel (which is a lot for me being a dollar player). Not taking them for the full game without a decent closer but Lohse at home has been solid and Suppan struggles in the early innings of games. Furthermore being on the road and with his recent form and how the Cards have been swinging the bats lately I think this is a good spot. He is just coming off the DL also and is facing demotion to the minors. Here is some more info:

From the AP on 7/7/08

MILWAUKEE -- The Milwaukee Brewers placed right-hander Jeff Suppan on the 15-day disabled list because of joint irritation in his pitching elbow Monday, temporarily making room on the roster for new acquisition CC Sabathia. Suppan said he hurt his elbow during an at-bat in his May 23 start at Washington, and it wasn't getting any better as he attempted to pitch through the injury. Suppan said he wasn't sure if the injury was affecting his pitching. "It's hard to say," Suppan said. "I don't really know. All I really know is it wasn't getting any better."

Because of the All-Star break next week, Suppan could return to Milwaukee's roster after missing only one start and still get the rest he needs. I want him healthy," Brewers manager Ned Yost said. "I want him strong for August and September." Suppan said he hadn't been feeling much soreness on the mound but sought out the team's training staff when he felt some pain after throwing a warm-up pitch in his most recent start. An MRI revealed no structural damage to the joint.

Assuming Suppan returns on schedule, Yost will be faced with some decisions about his starting rotation later this month. The team added Sabathia, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, in a Monday trade with Cleveland and will eventually have to make room for him in the rotation. The two most likely candidates for bullpen duty would be Seth McClung and Dave Bush. But Yost said both have been pitching well lately and he might consider giving each the chance to make starts later in the season, based on which pitcher matches up better against a given opponent. I don't know what we're going to do, to be honest," Yost said.


<!-- / message -->

Here is my train of thought, inspired by the way Tony LaRussa's manges to a series (he actually wrote a book on it but I have yet to read it.) Yost figures Lohse is the toughest pitching match-up and game they are most likely to lose going into this important four game series. So he takes his chance for a W with McClung in the opener against Pinerio instead of the tougher match-up with Lohse. They get the W tonight, tomorrow he isn't going to be wasting the bullpen with an early hook if things get hairy on Suppan, because with Sheets and C.C. Wed and Thurs those are very winable games and he will want some relief left for those guys if needed. Let's face it if Suppan blows up Yost can feel better about sending him down to the minors and leaving Bush and McClung up with the big club. He is definately the closest to being voted off the island out of those three with more hits, ER's and walks per innings pitched than the other two.

I think Yost is thinking that winning 3 of 4 in a road series is doable with this set up, and if by chance Lohse doesn't show up and Suppan . The All-Star break gave him the ability to ptich C.C. two games in a row essentially taking Suppan's place in the roation while he was on the 15 day DL, I think he is not coming back to a great circumstance for him, one that has lots of pressure. Lastly I have a feeling that there is more than just joint irritation with Suppan, he has given up 22 runs in the first 5 innings of the last 4 games he has pitched. He stated in that article that he hurt his elbow on May 23rd but it wasn't until after he blew up on July 6th giving up 6 runs in 3 innings that he decided to speak up. Even still he said he wasn't sure if the injury was affecting his pitching, I think if he poor pitching was the result of an injury he had he would of known about it, the guy has been pitching for 11 seasons in the big leagues.

I dunno anything can happen in any game but I think this one has a decent shot of cashing and I am going heavy (for me) on it. Wish me luck!