- begin story header --> Perkins should avoid going outside against Yankees
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --> <!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 23, 2008
<!-- end page tools --> <!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
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Perkins
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Perkins needs to work inside against Yankees
Twins lefty Glen Perkins takes the mound Wednesday against the last team to beat him. Since losing to the Yankees on May 30, Perkins has gone 5-0 with a 3.81 ERA. His loss to the Yankees was his worst outing of the season, as he surrendered five runs on 10 hits and didn't record a strikeout over four innings. This time around, Perkins will need to pitch Yankees batters inside and put batters away when he gets ahead in the count. The Yankees are one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors against inside pitches, and one of the best teams against outside pitches: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Yankees averages and MLB ranks by pitch location (through Monday)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>BA</td> <td>BA rank</td> <td>SLG</td> <td>SLG rank</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Inside</td> <td>.227</td> <td>23</td> <td>.356</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Outside</td> <td>.265</td> <td>2</td> <td>.386</td> <td>2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Against the Yankees, Perkins did not allow any hits on inside pitches. However, he threw just 28 percent of his pitches inside, compared to 36 percent in his starts since. He threw 41 percent of his pitches outside, on which the Yankees knocked seven of their 10 hits, two for extra-bases. On outside pitches, the Yankees hit .778 with a 1.111 slugging percentage. Perkins also had trouble finishing off Yankees hitters. When he was ahead in the count, they hit .615 with a .846 slugging percentage and put 61 percent swung-on pitches in play. With two strikes, New York hit .700 with a 1.000 slugging percentage and put 67 percent of swings in play. If he pounds the ball inside against Yankees batters Wednesday, particularly when he is ahead in the count, Perkins will give himself a chance to extend his winning streak. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Buchholz
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Buchholz's fastball coming around just in time
After some time on the disabled list, and nine starts in Triple-A, Clay Buchholz has made two starts in July for the Red Sox and faces the Seattle Mariners for the first time in his career on Wednesday. While his recent results have not been good (eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings over his past two starts), there have been some encouraging signs for Buchholz. His extended stay in the minors was to work on his arm slot and fastball, which have improved: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Buchholz's fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Period</td> <td>Fastball pct.</td> <td>Pct. in strike zone</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Avg. velocity (mph)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First 8 starts</td> <td>43.8</td> <td>49.4</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>92.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Past 2 starts</td> <td>52.1</td> <td>56.6</td> <td>14.6</td> <td>93.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Since his return, Buchholz has been throwing his fastball much more often and with a little more velocity. As a result, he has been missing more bats with his heater, even though he is throwing it in the zone more frequently. Confidence in his fastball is likely to benefit Buchholz against Seattle. Mariners hitters are among the worst in the league against fastballs: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Mariners hitters vs. fastballs (through Monday) </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mariners</td> <td> MLB rank</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.270</td> <td> 28</td> <td>.282</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>OBP</td> <td>.336</td> <td>30</td> <td>.362</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.396</td> <td>29</td> <td>.443</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Mahay
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Change makes Mahay more than lefty specialist
Pitching for his seventh team in 12 seasons, Royals left-handed reliever Ron Mahay's five wins and 1.78 ERA through Monday are career bests. Left-handed batters have hit .225 against him, but it's the .223 right-handers are hitting against him that have made Mahay more than a lefty specialist. Mahay has faced an average of five batters per relief appearance this season. Royals manager Trey Hillman credits Mahay's ability to change speeds and throw strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mahay's changeup vs. RHB</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Strike pct.</td> <td>Well-hit strike pct.</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Mahay</td> <td>.156</td> <td>60.8</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>34.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>LHP MLB avg.</td> <td>.254</td> <td>61.7</td> <td>8.7</td> <td>28.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Mahay has kept 67 percent of changeups down in the zone to right-handed hitters, who have gone 2-for-22 against those low changeups. He throws the change 27 percent of the time to righties, and more often when he's ahead in the count. Mahay follows 31 percent of changeups with another one, and his back-to-back changes are particularly effective. Right-handed hitters have missed on 39 percent of swings on changeups that have followed changeups. Change is in Mahay's character. He began his career as a hitter, but after batting .200 for the Red Sox in 1995, Mahay went back to the minor leagues to reinvent himself as a pitcher, returning to the majors in 1997. Now, at age 37, he is enjoying his best season. Mahay is signed with Kansas City through next year, but he is reportedly drawing interest from contenders in need of a bullpen boost as the July 31 trade deadline nears.
Special to ESPN.com
<!-- promo plug -->
<!-- end promo plug -->
<!-- end story header --> <!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: July 23, 2008
<!-- end page tools --> <!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Perkins needs to work inside against Yankees
Twins lefty Glen Perkins takes the mound Wednesday against the last team to beat him. Since losing to the Yankees on May 30, Perkins has gone 5-0 with a 3.81 ERA. His loss to the Yankees was his worst outing of the season, as he surrendered five runs on 10 hits and didn't record a strikeout over four innings. This time around, Perkins will need to pitch Yankees batters inside and put batters away when he gets ahead in the count. The Yankees are one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors against inside pitches, and one of the best teams against outside pitches: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Yankees averages and MLB ranks by pitch location (through Monday)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>BA</td> <td>BA rank</td> <td>SLG</td> <td>SLG rank</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Inside</td> <td>.227</td> <td>23</td> <td>.356</td> <td>29</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Outside</td> <td>.265</td> <td>2</td> <td>.386</td> <td>2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Against the Yankees, Perkins did not allow any hits on inside pitches. However, he threw just 28 percent of his pitches inside, compared to 36 percent in his starts since. He threw 41 percent of his pitches outside, on which the Yankees knocked seven of their 10 hits, two for extra-bases. On outside pitches, the Yankees hit .778 with a 1.111 slugging percentage. Perkins also had trouble finishing off Yankees hitters. When he was ahead in the count, they hit .615 with a .846 slugging percentage and put 61 percent swung-on pitches in play. With two strikes, New York hit .700 with a 1.000 slugging percentage and put 67 percent of swings in play. If he pounds the ball inside against Yankees batters Wednesday, particularly when he is ahead in the count, Perkins will give himself a chance to extend his winning streak. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Buchholz's fastball coming around just in time
After some time on the disabled list, and nine starts in Triple-A, Clay Buchholz has made two starts in July for the Red Sox and faces the Seattle Mariners for the first time in his career on Wednesday. While his recent results have not been good (eight earned runs in 9 2/3 innings over his past two starts), there have been some encouraging signs for Buchholz. His extended stay in the minors was to work on his arm slot and fastball, which have improved: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Buchholz's fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Period</td> <td>Fastball pct.</td> <td>Pct. in strike zone</td> <td>Miss pct.</td> <td>Avg. velocity (mph)</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First 8 starts</td> <td>43.8</td> <td>49.4</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>92.2</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Past 2 starts</td> <td>52.1</td> <td>56.6</td> <td>14.6</td> <td>93.7</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Since his return, Buchholz has been throwing his fastball much more often and with a little more velocity. As a result, he has been missing more bats with his heater, even though he is throwing it in the zone more frequently. Confidence in his fastball is likely to benefit Buchholz against Seattle. Mariners hitters are among the worst in the league against fastballs: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Mariners hitters vs. fastballs (through Monday) </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Mariners</td> <td> MLB rank</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BA</td> <td>.270</td> <td> 28</td> <td>.282</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>OBP</td> <td>.336</td> <td>30</td> <td>.362</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG</td> <td>.396</td> <td>29</td> <td>.443</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Change makes Mahay more than lefty specialist
Pitching for his seventh team in 12 seasons, Royals left-handed reliever Ron Mahay's five wins and 1.78 ERA through Monday are career bests. Left-handed batters have hit .225 against him, but it's the .223 right-handers are hitting against him that have made Mahay more than a lefty specialist. Mahay has faced an average of five batters per relief appearance this season. Royals manager Trey Hillman credits Mahay's ability to change speeds and throw strikes: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="5">Mahay's changeup vs. RHB</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>BA against</td> <td>Strike pct.</td> <td>Well-hit strike pct.</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Mahay</td> <td>.156</td> <td>60.8</td> <td>5.1</td> <td>34.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>LHP MLB avg.</td> <td>.254</td> <td>61.7</td> <td>8.7</td> <td>28.2</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Mahay has kept 67 percent of changeups down in the zone to right-handed hitters, who have gone 2-for-22 against those low changeups. He throws the change 27 percent of the time to righties, and more often when he's ahead in the count. Mahay follows 31 percent of changeups with another one, and his back-to-back changes are particularly effective. Right-handed hitters have missed on 39 percent of swings on changeups that have followed changeups. Change is in Mahay's character. He began his career as a hitter, but after batting .200 for the Red Sox in 1995, Mahay went back to the minor leagues to reinvent himself as a pitcher, returning to the majors in 1997. Now, at age 37, he is enjoying his best season. Mahay is signed with Kansas City through next year, but he is reportedly drawing interest from contenders in need of a bullpen boost as the July 31 trade deadline nears.