Service Plays Thursday 7/24/08

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FYI - 3 DAY GAMES FIRST PITCH 12:10 ET AT SHEA.

- American League -

12:35 PM ET
Toronto (49-51, 22-31 away)
Baltimore (48-51, 28-19 home)

TOR: Halladay (11-7, 2.89 ERA)
BAL: Cabrera (6-5, 4.57 ERA)

- National League -

12:10 PM ET
Philadelphia (54-46, 27-23 away)
NY Mets (53-47, 28-19 home)

PHI: Moyer (9-6, 3.90 ERA)
NYM: Perez (6-6, 4.36 ERA)

3:45 PM ET
Washington (38-62, 18-32 away)
San Francisco (41-58, 18-31 home)

WAS: Redding (7-4, 4.17 ERA)
SFO: Cain (5-8, 4.08 ERA)

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates and White Sox.
Thursday it's the Giants and Smarty Marty in the 5th at Saratoga ($25 win and place).
The surplus is 170 sirignanos.

JEFFERSONSPORTS (no plays yest)

14-5-1 last 20 plays 74%

44-23-1 last 68 plays 66%

MLB RECORD
+32.92 units (+3292 playing 100 per game)

EARLY RELEASE FOR THURS (early game)
MLB
NY METS-125

CFL 2-0-1 so far this year
WINNIPEG+7

armvin Sports

7/24/2008 Philadelphia Phillies 115

7/24/2008 Washington Nationals 130

HONDO

Hondo, still all aglow and agog about Tuesday night's stirring stunner with the Phillies over the Metamucils, came right back yesterday afternoon and picked up more scratch with the Tigers as the earnings ballooned to 790 lezcanos.

Tonight, he's betting Sheets doesn't stink in St. Louis - 10 units on the Brews.

SAPKOWSKI For 24/07

Best bet (1-1)
1-1 Yesterday 1-0(Texas vs. Chi. White Sox over 10 "W")
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres over 5 in 1st 5

Premium
Yesterday 1-0 (Texas vs. Chi. White Sox over 5 in 1st 5 IN"W",)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants over 4 in 1st 5 IN

Free picks
1-1-0 Yesterday (Cincinnati"W",Philadelphia vs. NY Mets over 9"Push")
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays

BOB AKMENS Comp


St. Louis Cardinals (125)
Thu Jul 24 '08 8:15p
This is an unusual comp play for me in that there is no clearly discernible strength vs weakness matchup.

See, if you handicap for an living, you really want games where black matches up vs white - you don't want a lot of shades of grey - and a lot of "maybes."

Do I dislike Ben Sheets? Hardly. The Brewers are actually 7-3 his last 10 away from home - an extraordinary performance given the vast majority of pitchers are net losers away from home. And the guy's got a 2.88 ERA - which is like one-and-change 20 years ago.

So, why would I like the Cards as a dog here?

Several reasons: 1) Todd Wellemeyer's home numbers are actually equal-to or better than Sheet's road-numbers - particularly that ultimate arbiter stat: most net profit won.

2) This is no ordinary game or ordinary series. I've done this a long time and can never remember an entire league where just 3 teams are playing better than .535-ball. And those 3 teams are locked in a virtual-tie in the Central Division: the Cubbies, the Brewers and the Cards.

To make a broad generalization - but one that's often true - important series like this are often shaded toward the home-team for so many reasons, not the least of which is very large partisan crowds.

3) Managers often decide such series. I'm not a big fan of Ned Yost. Any guy who still brings in Eric Gagne - who makes my heart stop when I see him walk to the mound and I've bet the Brewers for large chunk of change - is not a good manager. But let's hope this no-more-than-a-spectral-image of his former Cy Young-self comes into this game - because his career ERA vs St Louis is a lovely 8.00 or so.

In the other dugout, we have, in my estimation, the best manager in all of baseball, who knows when and how to make the right moves, and utilizes whatever talent he has available as optimally as I've seen.

You might guess I'm a big Tony LaRussa fan

THE SPORTS ADVISORS


NATIONAL LEAGUE


Florida (53-48) at Chicago (59-42)
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field after a six-game road trip, sending ace right-hander Carlos Zambrano (10-4, 2.98 ERA) to the mound to open a four-game series against the Marlins. Chicago, which had lost five of six games before beating Arizona 10-6 Wednesday night, is an eye-popping 37-12 this season at the friendly confines and 40-12 in its last 52 games as a home favorite.
Florida, which will counter with left-hander Scott Olsen (6-4, 3.84), got drilled at home Wednesday night in a 9-4 loss to Atlanta. But the Marlins are still 9-5 in their last 14 games overall and 16-5 in Olsen?s last 21 starts against an N.L. Central opponent. Furthermore, the Marlins have owned the Cubs in this rivalry lately, winning the last 10 clashes, including four straight at Wrigley.
Zambrano has hit a bit of a speed bump recently, suffering three losses in his last six starts. On Saturday at Houston, he gave up four runs on six hits in 6 1/3 innings and got no real support on offense in a 4-1 setback. But the 27-year-old has thrown at least six innings in eight of his last nine outings.
The Marlins have won three of their last four behind Olsen. The 24-year-old got beat up a bit in a 9-5 home win over Philadelphia on Saturday, allowing four runs on eight hits in five innings, but he did enough to notch his first back-to-back winning decisions since April 20.
Zambrano is 5-0 with five no-decisions and a solid 2.25 ERA at home, and he?s 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA in seven career starts against Florida. Olsen is 2-1 with five no-decisions and a 4.93 ERA in eight road starts this year, and he?s 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA in four career starts against Chicago.
The under is 38-18-3 for the Cubs in their last 59 games as a chalk and 9-3 in Zambrano?s last 12 home starts. On the flip side, the over for Florida is 37-16-6 in its last 59 road games and 9-3 in Olsen?s last 12 starts, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 15 of the last 21 clashes overall and 14 of the last 20 at Wrigley Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER



Milwaukee (58-43) at St. Louis (57-46)
The Brewers, on the brink of first place in the National League Central, will give the ball to right-handed ace Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.88 ERA) as they try to sweep a four-game series against the division-rival Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Milwaukee, which got a complete game from CC Sabathia in a 3-0 win Wednesday, has won seven consecutive games (including six on the road) and is on additional runs of 16-4 in division play and 14-3 against winning teams.
St. Louis, which will send out right-hander Todd Wellemeyer (8-4, 4.22 ERA), is in a 2-6 slide and has lost seven of its last eight against Milwaukee, including the last five in a row.
The Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games behind Sheets, though he got a no-decision Saturday in an 8-5 win at San Francisco, allowing four runs (two earned) on nine hits in five innings. Sheets has been consistent on the hill all season, going six innings or more in 12 of his last 14 starts and 15 of 19 starts overall, including three complete games.
The Cardinals had lost five in row behind Wellemeyer, barely snapping that skid in a 6-5 home win over San Diego on Saturday. In that outing, Wellemeyer got the win despite allowing all five runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Sheets is 6-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 road outings this season, but he has struggled against the Cards, going 5-14 with a 4.28 ERA in 28 career starts, including 1-8 in his last nine against St. Louis. Wellemeyer, meanwhile, is 6-4 with a 5.08 ERA in 10 home starts this year and 0-1 with a 6.60 ERA in eight career appearances (one start) against Milwaukee.
The over is on an 8-4 run for Milwaukee and has cashed in six of Sheets? last eight starts. But the under for St. Louis is on runs of 7-0 against winning teams and 6-0 with the Cardinals an underdog. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 8-3-1 in 12 meetings this season, 5-1 in Sheets? last six starts at Busch Stadium and 9-3-1 in Sheets? last 13 starts overall against St. Louis.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Computer Plays

CUBS
BLUEJAYS

THE VEGAS STEAMLINE

Take TAMPA BAY/KANSAS CITY UNDER the total of 8.5 runs

Scott Ferrall

BALTIMORE +125 over Jays and Halladay--Cabrera goes up against the Toronto ace, but it's the Orioles bats that get it done here. Plus, everyone will be laying action on Halladay, so go the other way and make some dough

Nationals +130 at San Fran--Redding and the Nats get lucky in the Bay against Matt Cain

PHILLIES and MOYER +110 over Oli Perez and the Mets at Shea--New York can't close the deal and lose the rubber game. Moyer is junk at it's best and he'll make the Mets look silly in Queens

Steve Merril

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under

Last night’s game was suspended in the 6th inning due to rain and will be completed before this game today. This means the original start time (12:35 pm ET) has been pushed back until after the suspended game is completed. Both offenses struggled last night as the game was 1-1 in the sixth inning when suspended and this should continue in the second game today as my pitcher performance ratings predict a solid outing by both Halladay and Cabrera. Roy Halladay is coming off a rare loss last Saturday when he allowed an uncharacteristic 5 runs versus Tampa Bay. Halladay should bounce back with a strong showing tonight as he still has an excellent 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in all 20 starts this season with a powerful 125-24 strikeout/walk ratio. Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera is also due for a bounce-back after allowed 7 runs versus Detroit last weekend. Cabrera entered that game with a 12-6-1 Under record in his first 19 starts this season and a solid 1.40 WHIP, so he should respond well today. This is also a quick revenge game for Cabrera as he just loss versus the Blue Jays on July 8th.

Play UNDER the total.

MATT FARGO

Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

It is fade time once again for the Royals. The Royals have been one of the streakiest teams in baseball and losses have come in bunches and there seems to be no letup. Since winning six straight games at home, Kansas City is 3-8 over its last 11 games at Kaufman Field. The issue has been pitching as it has allowed an average of 6.5 rpg over that span. The offense has been part of the problem of late as Kansas City plated one run in each of the last two games against the Tigers and has scored four runs or fewer in six of its last 10.

Tampa Bay took its series against the A’s and it now hits the road with a slim lead in the American League East. This is the type of series that it needs to win in order to remain a contender in the division. The Rays are a totally different team on the road than they are at home as proven by their six-game road losing streak. Prior to that, they won five of six away from home in the previous roadtrip so the ability is there. Tampa Bay is 19-7 in its last 26 series openers.

The Rays send Matt Garza to the hill and he has been a great addition to the staff despite his shortcomings on the road. He has a 3.68 ERA on the season and while the best efforts have come at home, he is in the midst of a great run. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts including two on the road. He is coming off one of his best outings of the season and he now faces a team that even though he has never defeated, has success against. In four starts against the Royals, he has a 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Kansas City sends Gil Meche to the mound and it has certainly been an up and down season for him. He is coming off a solid effort against the White Sox in his last outing but he has struggled putting consecutive quality starts together. He has had back-to-back quality performances only four times and only four of his 10 home starts have resulted in a quality outing. He fared well against the Rays earlier this season but in his career he is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine start. Play Tampa Bay Rays 1.5 Units

Rocky Atkinson Triple-Dime Bet

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Play On: 5* San Diego +105

Hensley is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA overall this year in his 5 inning pitched. Herrera is 0-1 with a 19.50 ERA overall this year and has a 12.47 ERA at home this season. In 2 games, Herrera has 13 earned runs in 6 innings pitched. San Diego is 11-2 overall vs Pittsburgh last 3 years. Hensley is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA overall vs Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll play San Diego for 5 units tonight!

ANTHONY CAPONE

D'Rays /Royals
Play :Royals +110

Meche pitched lights out in his last outing holding the offensive minded Tigers to 1 run on 2 Hits over 6.1 thirds . The D' Rays hand the ball to Matt Garza who has pitched well as his (8-5) record would attest .His last outing was a good one as he beat Toronto (6-4) giving up only 2 hits over 7.2 thirds Innings .

His problem this year has come on the road though and that exactly where he'll find himself today .His record is just (2-4) .He has given up 11 Home Runs in 6 games to go along with 33 Runs !!

He has had a bit of trouble in his home park , but I think he'll pitch well enough to get the Win here .

JOHN FINA

Philadelphia/New York Under 9.5

Today we expect a low-scoring game as the Philadelphia Phillies do battle with the New York Mets. One reason why we expect a low-scoring game is because both these teams will be sending to the mound struggling starting pitchers. This says it all... The Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher (Jamie Moyer) has a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts, while New York Mets Starting Pitcher (Oliver Perez) has a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, both these starting pitchers have been pitching very well as of late. To say the least, we should see a low-scoring game today. Take the Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets Under 9.5

June

Mets

Brian Hansen

Game: Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs Jul 24 2008 8:05PM
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
Reason: Member Pick: Chicago Cubs ? The Cubs are in too expensive of a price range to use as a pay play but we are recommending them tonight as Thursday?s Member Pick. Why? Because even in the price range their in they?re worth considering a small play on! Chicago is an amazing 37-12 at home this season. They?re hosting a Marlins team that is sub-.500 on the road. This is why, even though Florida has won ten straight against the Cubs we don?t foresee that streak continuing here! Want more? The return of Alfonso Soriano is huge for the Cubs. He came back last night after a long stint on the disabled list and he will inch closer to 100% with each game he gets under his belt! Carlos Zambrano is 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA this season. The Big Z is also 3-1 with a 2.54 in seven career starts against the Marlins. He?ll be taking on a Marlins club that is coming off of a disappointing 3-3 home-stand where they averaged less than four runs per game! Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are mired in bad slumps and that doesn?t bode well for tonight?s game. This is especially true with southpaw Scott Olsen on the mound for the Marlins. Even though he is 2-0 in his last five starts he?s compiled a 4.78 ERA in those outings and the Cubs offense is lethal at Wrigley Field. That said, the Cubs should win this one in a ROUT!

Tom Freese

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals Jul 24 2008 8:10PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
Reason: Tampa Bay is 19-7 in Game 1 of a series and they are 36-15 their last 51 games as favorites. The Rays are 29-14 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 8-3 their last 11 games vs. righty starters. Kansas City is 11-23 off a loss and they are 15-32 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Royals are 36-84 vs. AL East foes and they are 7-15 with Gil Meche on the mound as an underdog. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY vs. Meche