[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO CREATE POWER RATINGS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Over the next few weeks I'm going to talk about methods for creating your own power ratings. Today I'll focus on baseball, with an approach you can consider while you're watching games on TV all weekend. Soon there will also be articles about college and pro football. Most oddsmakers use variations of power ratings to make their own numbers. Even with all the talk about computer-age statistical analysis, and satellites bringing in video feeds of all the games...most Vegas and Reno numbers are "from the gut" estimates from guys who grew up using power ratings. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Baseball is a unique animal because the starting pitcher has such a big impact on the game. The Indianapolis Colts are going to be the Indianapolis Colts when they take the field. The USC Trojans will be the USC Trojans. But, the Cincinnati Reds with Edinson Volquez starting aren't the same as the Cincinnati Reds with Homer Bailey starting. Even though only one player in the lineup is different, they might as well be two separate teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How do you build power ratings when there's that much variation on the same team? Should you create 150 different team ratings (30 teams with each of their five rotation starters)? Do you need more than 200 ratings because of spot starters and injuries? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's the best way to go about it...[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO CREATE POWER RATINGS IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Over the next few weeks I'm going to talk about methods for creating your own power ratings. Today I'll focus on baseball, with an approach you can consider while you're watching games on TV all weekend. Soon there will also be articles about college and pro football. Most oddsmakers use variations of power ratings to make their own numbers. Even with all the talk about computer-age statistical analysis, and satellites bringing in video feeds of all the games...most Vegas and Reno numbers are "from the gut" estimates from guys who grew up using power ratings. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Baseball is a unique animal because the starting pitcher has such a big impact on the game. The Indianapolis Colts are going to be the Indianapolis Colts when they take the field. The USC Trojans will be the USC Trojans. But, the Cincinnati Reds with Edinson Volquez starting aren't the same as the Cincinnati Reds with Homer Bailey starting. Even though only one player in the lineup is different, they might as well be two separate teams. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]How do you build power ratings when there's that much variation on the same team? Should you create 150 different team ratings (30 teams with each of their five rotation starters)? Do you need more than 200 ratings because of spot starters and injuries? [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's the best way to go about it...[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First, create a framework where you're using "cents" on the moneyline to make your estimates. In football and basketball, everyone uses points because that's what you're betting on. In baseball, betting is based on a moneyline. So, you want gradings that show up on the same scale. There's not an easy math connection you can use for this (though there are quite a few complicated ones!). But...avid fans of the sport can do this anyway. A great pitcher is about 30 cents better than a good pitcher. A good pitcher is maybe 15-20 cents better than average. Use that kind of framework, so your end result is a number you can compare to a sportsbook moneyline in the same game. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Now that you've got a scale in mind, start by compiling power ratings for just the OFFENSES of all 30 teams. Use full season stats and make a serious analysis of where all the offenses stand against each other. This would be just like football or basketball. You're looking at the teams on the whole. How well does St. Louis score runs? Pittsburgh? Toronto? Rank everyone from top to bottom based on your favorite stats. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I would encourage you to look more at road stats than home stats. The home ballparks can create some illusions about the teams. I mentioned the other day that the Cubs offense isn't as good as its full season stats. They've played a lot of games with the wind blowing out in Wrigley. On the road, they've been surprisingly bad offensively...which you saw again this week at Arizona. You want to make REAL assessments of all 30 offenses.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Next, compile power ratings for the STARTING PITCHERS. This takes awhile. But, if you're a baseball fan, you already have a good sense of the differences between pitchers. Most of the day-to-day differences in the moneylines are triggered by these differences. And, honestly, there are a lot of generic guys that you can pretty much stick in the same slot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Categorize pitchers this way:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ACE STARTERS
GOOD BUT NOT GREAT
INNINGS MUNCHERS
BORDERLINE MAJOR LEAUGERS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you see it as giving 150 or 200 guys their own number, the task seems very daunting. If you're just throwing those guys into four different categories, it's much easier. Use power rating differences for the four groups, and that will put you in the right spot much more often than not.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ACE STARTERS
GOOD BUT NOT GREAT
INNINGS MUNCHERS
BORDERLINE MAJOR LEAUGERS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you see it as giving 150 or 200 guys their own number, the task seems very daunting. If you're just throwing those guys into four different categories, it's much easier. Use power rating differences for the four groups, and that will put you in the right spot much more often than not.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Finally, compile power ratings for the BULLPENS. You can look up bullen ERA's at a variety of websites. You should also be looking at blown save and save statistics for the aces. Relief pitchers throw fewer innings that starters, but they obviously have a big impact in close games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I think far too many handicappers gloss over this one stat. They figure the bullpens will cancel out over the long haul...while starting pitchers will determine who wins or loses. You just saw the four basic categories for starters. There are a lot of games where both teams are pitching a guy from the same category (ace versus ace, muncher versus muncher). The bullpens will typically determine who wins those games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Okay, now you're ready to go. You've got the components broken down in a way that allows you to build a money line. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's say:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Okay, now you're ready to go. You've got the components broken down in a way that allows you to build a money line. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's say:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Team A has a 20-cent edge with the starting pitcher[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Team A has a 10-cent edge on offense[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Team A is dead even in the bullpen[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's 30 cents, or a 130 favorite. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We haven't mentioned home field yet. I've heard people using anywhere from 10 cents to 30 cents for that. I think most sharps tend toward the conservative side, using 10-15 cents for home field. Remember, the public usually likes betting home favorites...and sharps like betting against the public. So, the sharp approach is the lower number. I should point out though that this year has seen several teams post either great home records or bad road records. You might consider a higher number in those instances. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When do you have a play worth betting? That's going to be up to you to decide. Some people's ratings are so accurate, and so tight, that even minor differences will trigger a play. Remember, sharps have the ability to shop around...so they can often find a bettable difference in most games. If you're new to this approach, I'd only look at the biggest differentials. And, even then, you should double check your numbers to make sure you haven't made a mistake. I do think the betting lines are vulnerable. But, they don't often miss reality by SO MUCH that big differentials in power ratings will jump out. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you haven't used power ratings in your baseball approach in the past, I'd encourage you to try it out. I wouldn't say that it's "better" than the stathead approaches I've seen. If you're a numbers guy, and you're already happy with how you evaluate games...then there's no need to dump that approach in favor of this one. But, if you're the type of legal bettor who just glances at the card and makes some picks...I'd advise this approach.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We haven't mentioned home field yet. I've heard people using anywhere from 10 cents to 30 cents for that. I think most sharps tend toward the conservative side, using 10-15 cents for home field. Remember, the public usually likes betting home favorites...and sharps like betting against the public. So, the sharp approach is the lower number. I should point out though that this year has seen several teams post either great home records or bad road records. You might consider a higher number in those instances. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]When do you have a play worth betting? That's going to be up to you to decide. Some people's ratings are so accurate, and so tight, that even minor differences will trigger a play. Remember, sharps have the ability to shop around...so they can often find a bettable difference in most games. If you're new to this approach, I'd only look at the biggest differentials. And, even then, you should double check your numbers to make sure you haven't made a mistake. I do think the betting lines are vulnerable. But, they don't often miss reality by SO MUCH that big differentials in power ratings will jump out. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If you haven't used power ratings in your baseball approach in the past, I'd encourage you to try it out. I wouldn't say that it's "better" than the stathead approaches I've seen. If you're a numbers guy, and you're already happy with how you evaluate games...then there's no need to dump that approach in favor of this one. But, if you're the type of legal bettor who just glances at the card and makes some picks...I'd advise this approach.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You're probably not giving enough weight to the offenses. You can't win if you don't score runs. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You're probably not giving enough weight to the bullpens, figuring you'll be okay as long as you're starter is effective. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]You're probably putting WAY too much weight on the starting pitchers. The public always does that. I know many old time sharps who do that too. They like the price they're getting with a starter, then end up yelling at the TV when the bullpen loses the game in the final innings. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I hope you'll consider this approach over the weekend. The pennant races are really heating up. I know you'll be watching a lot of games on TV. Baseball has a leisurely pace that allows you to think and work while a game is on. [/FONT]
