odds to win the N L east (7-29-08)

current ODDS AT BETUS

<TABLE class=game-tbl cellSpacing=0><TBODY><TR><TH class=rot>Rot #</TH><TH class=team>To Win National League East </TH><TH class=moneyline>Moneyline</TH></TR><TR><TD class=rot>215</TD><TD class=team>New York Mets </TD><TD class=moneyline>-160 <INPUT id=ctl00_C_ConstructorLines1_ctl00_repHeaderLines_ctl00_repHeaderLinesDesc_ctl04_repLines_ctl00_chkBetContestantMoneyline onclick="validateLineItems(this.checked, '65635651', 'Baseball Futures','MLB','65635695', 'M', 'New York Mets', '', '-160', null, '50000', 'D');" type=checkbox name=ctl00$C$ConstructorLines1$ctl00$repHeaderLines$ctl00$repHeaderLinesDesc$ctl04$repLines$ctl00$chkBetContestantMoneyline> </TD></TR><TR class=alternate><TD class=rot></TD><TD class=team>Philadelphia Phillies </TD><TD class=moneyline>+150 <INPUT id=ctl00_C_ConstructorLines1_ctl00_repHeaderLines_ctl00_repHeaderLinesDesc_ctl04_repLines_ctl01_chkBetContestantMoneyline onclick="validateLineItems(this.checked, '65635651', 'Baseball Futures','MLB','65635696', 'M', 'Philadelphia Phillies', '', '150', null, '50000', 'D');" type=checkbox name=ctl00$C$ConstructorLines1$ctl00$repHeaderLines$ctl00$repHeaderLinesDesc$ctl04$repLines$ctl01$chkBetContestantMoneyline> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rot></TD><TD class=team>Atlanta Braves </TD><TD class=moneyline>+3500 <INPUT id=ctl00_C_ConstructorLines1_ctl00_repHeaderLines_ctl00_repHeaderLinesDesc_ctl04_repLines_ctl02_chkBetContestantMoneyline onclick="validateLineItems(this.checked, '65635651', 'Baseball Futures','MLB','65635697', 'M', 'Atlanta Braves', '', '3500', null, '50000', 'D');" type=checkbox name=ctl00$C$ConstructorLines1$ctl00$repHeaderLines$ctl00$repHeaderLinesDesc$ctl04$repLines$ctl02$chkBetContestantMoneyline> </TD></TR><TR class=alternate><TD class=rot></TD><TD class=team>Florida Marlins </TD><TD class=moneyline>+600 <INPUT id=ctl00_C_ConstructorLines1_ctl00_repHeaderLines_ctl00_repHeaderLinesDesc_ctl04_repLines_ctl03_chkBetContestantMoneyline onclick="validateLineItems(this.checked, '65635651', 'Baseball Futures','MLB','65635698', 'M', 'Florida Marlins', '', '600', null, '50000', 'D');" type=checkbox name=ctl00$C$ConstructorLines1$ctl00$repHeaderLines$ctl00$repHeaderLinesDesc$ctl04$repLines$ctl03$chkBetContestantMoneyline> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=rot></TD><TD class=team>Washington Nationals </TD><TD class=moneyline>+20000 <INPUT id=ctl00_C_ConstructorLines1_ctl00_repHeaderLines_ctl00_repHeaderLinesDesc_ctl04_repLines_ctl04_chkBetContestantMoneyline onclick="validateLineItems(this.checked, '65635651', 'Baseball Futures','MLB','65635699', 'M', 'Washington Nationals', '', '20000', null, '50000', 'D');" type=checkbox name=ctl00$C$ConstructorLines1$ctl00$repHeaderLines$ctl00$repHeaderLinesDesc$ctl04$repLines$ctl04$chkBetContestantMoneyline></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD></TD><TD class=alignCenter>W</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L</TD><TD class=alignCenter>%</TD><TD class=alignCenter>GB</TD></TR><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>buildRows(standings_rs_nle);</SCRIPT><TR class=data id=nym_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_0 width=75>New York</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_0>57</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_0>49</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_0>.538</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_0>-</TD></TR><TR class=data id=phi_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_1 width=75>Philadelphia</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_1>56</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_1>49</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_1>.533</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_1>0.5</TD></TR><TR class=data id=fla_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_2 width=75>Florida</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_2>56</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_2>50</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_2>.528</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_2>1.0</TD></TR><TR class=data id=atl_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_3 width=75>Atlanta</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_3>49</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_3>56</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_3>.467</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_3>7.5</TD></TR><TR class=data id=was_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_4 width=75>Washington</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_4>38</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_4>67</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_4>.362</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_4>18.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I don't think Florida is in the picture at the end. Say 7 games back. They just don't have the starting pitching you can count on. Nolasco has pitched above his head, no one knows where Olsen's head is at, and Josh Johnson is a wildcard. For what it's worth, Johnson is going to be very good next year if healthy. I always liked his game.

I think the best value here is actually the Mets. I think they have more than a 60% chance of winning the NL East. You also have to take into account the fact that they will probably make a deal before the deadline to improve their team.

Phillies last 6 games are at home against Washington and Atlanta. They will be playing minor league players at the end of September. Phillies could win 5 out 6. That will win them the division.

Phil's magic ## is 1

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>TEAM</TD><TD class=alignCenter>W</TD><TD class=alignCenter>L</TD><TD class=alignCenter>%</TD><TD class=alignCenter>GB</TD></TR><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>buildRows(standings_rs_nle);</SCRIPT><TR class=data id=phi_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_0 width=75> Philadelphia</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_0>90</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_0>70</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_0>.563</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_0>-</TD></TR><TR class=data id=nym_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_1 width=75> New York</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_1>88</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_1>72</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_1>.550</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_1>2.0</TD></TR><TR class=data id=fla_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_2 width=75> Florida</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_2>83</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_2>76</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_2>.522</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_2>6.5</TD></TR><TR class=data id=atl_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_3 width=75> Atlanta</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_3>71</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_3>89</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_3>.444</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_3>19.0</TD></TR><TR class=data id=was_data vAlign=top><TD class="" id=nle_team_4 width=75> Washington</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_w_4>59</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_l_4>100</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_pct_4>.371</TD><TD class=alignCenter id=nle_gb_4>30.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>