Three Things To Watch: Wednesday

Volquez no longer fooling hitters

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end promo plug --> <dl class="memberalert"><dt>robert- Subscriber since 10/09/2005</dt></dl>

<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: WEDNESDAY

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Volquez

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Volquez running out of steam?

It has not been a pleasant start to the second half for Reds phenom Edinson Volquez. The 25-year-old hurler gave up a game-tying two-run home run in the All-Star Game, and since the break he has suffered through two of his worst starts in 2008. The combined totals of those two outings tell the story:
<!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="6">Volquez's past two starts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"><td>W-L</td> <td>IP</td> <td>R</td> <td>H</td> <td>BB</td> <td>HR</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0-1</td> <td>9</td> <td>9</td> <td>15</td> <td>5</td> <td>3</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Volquez won 10 of his first 12 decisions (including one relief loss), but he is 2-2 in his past six outings. His 1.71 ERA through 16 games has bloated to 2.77 as a result of a 5.97 ERA in his past six starts. The batting average against Volquez, which was .196 after he beat the Yankees on June 20, is up to .226 (.305 since June 26). Edinson's top two pitches, his mid-90s fastball and his signature changeup, have been battered around in his past six outings. He throws those two offerings nearly 90 percent of the time, and they aren't fooling hitters as often as before. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"><tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="3">Volquez -- first 15 starts vs. past six starts</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"><td>
</td> <td>First 15 starts</td> <td>Past six starts</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against -- Fastball</td> <td>.226</td> <td>.306</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of PA -- Fastball</td> <td>20.8</td> <td>11.6</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAVG against -- Changeup</td> <td>.148</td> <td>.286</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>K pct. of PA -- Changeup</td> <td>39.7</td> <td>21.1</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> His fastball and changeup yielded respective .263 and .242 slugging percentages in his first 15 starts, but those numbers have ballooned as well (fastball .500, changeup .510). Perhaps Volquez is hitting a wall. In his first three years with Texas, he started 17 games and totaled 80 innings. He has already tossed 126 2/3 innings in 2008, and he reached the 80-inning mark June 9. In 21 starts, he has averaged 102 pitches per game, and he threw 100-plus pitches in 12 of his first 15 outings. Volquez's right arm might be getting tired, or maybe opposing hitters have figured him out. Batters are missing on much fewer swings in recent outings (21.6 miss percentage in past six starts, 28.9 before), and hitting him harder (.258 well-hit average since June 26, .131 before). Which Edinson Volquez will show up to face the Astros tonight in Houston? <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Sarfate

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Sarfate can't rely solely on heat vs. Yankees

Orioles manager Dave Trembley has inserted Dennis Sarfate into the starting rotation, and the big right-hander will make his first career start against the Yankees in the Bronx this afternoon. It's a pretty daunting assignment for the Queens native. For some insight into how he might do, first let's compare Sarfate to a right-handed reliever turned starter turned reliever who has faced the Yankees twice this month: Justin Masterson of the Red Sox.
<!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="450"> <tbody><tr class="stathead"> <td colspan="8">Sarfate vs. Masterson</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>ERA</td> <td>Pitches</td> <td>BA
against</td> <td>OPS
against</td> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>K % of PA's</td> <td>Miss % of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Sarfate</td> <td>3.78</td> <td>933</td> <td>.202</td> <td>.654</td> <td>.150</td> <td>23.9</td> <td>23.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Masterson</td> <td>3.68</td> <td>931</td> <td>.212</td> <td>.684</td> <td>.212</td> <td>17.3</td> <td>23.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> As the table shows, the two have nearly identical numbers. The main difference is that Sarfate throws harder and is more of a strikeout pitcher, with a fastball that averages 95 mph. That has worked well for him in three short relief stints against the Yankees this season. In four innings against the Bombers, Sarfate has not allowed a run, has given up just one hit, and has six strikeouts. However, Sarfate throws his fastball 83 percent of the time and 48 percent of his total offerings are fastballs on the outer part of the plate. That's a problem. • Through Monday's games, the Yankees ranked sixth in the majors with a .292 batting average against fastballs. • Through Monday's games, the Yankees ranked first in the majors with a .303 batting average against fastballs in the outer third of the zone. The Yankees are a team of veteran hitters who will go up to the plate looking for Sarfate's fastball on the outer half of the plate, and they should be able to drive it. Watch to see whether Dennis makes a concerted effort to mix in his off-speed pitches a little more now that he is starting. If he does, the Orioles would surely settle for a performance akin to the one Masterson turned in against the Yankees three weeks ago in the Bronx, when he held them to two runs on six hits in six innings of work.<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Carpenter

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Carpenter goes back to work for Cardinals

How do you keep pace with two division rivals who acquire big-name pitchers weeks before the trading deadline? If you're the St. Louis Cardinals, you add a former Cy Young Award winner of your own to the rotation. Tonight marks the first time Chris Carpenter has taken a major league pitching mound since Opening Day of 2007. In 2005 and 2006, Carpenter was among the most dominant and durable pitchers in baseball. After an astonishing 516 2/3 innings, including postseason play those two seasons, the former ace's durability deserted him, and he's been out of action for about 18 months after undergoing reconstructive elbow surgery. It remains to be seen how Carpenter will pitch after his Tommy John procedure, but we can look back at a few of the primary skills that made him an elite starter to get a feel for what he's striving for. • Carpenter possesses a good, low-90s fastball, but he butters his bread with his curve and slider. In 2005 and 2006, batters hit just .165 against those two offerings, striking out on just a shade under 40 percent of the at-bats that ended on breaking pitches. • Late in the count, few pitchers in baseball have been better than Carpenter at recording outs. In scouted situations in 2005 and 2006, opponents had a well-hit average of just .160 overall, including a microscopic .104 mark against breaking pitches. • Carpenter has lived on the edges of the strike zone. In his last two full seasons, he's located 79 percent of his pitches on the corners, holding hitters to a .193 batting average, compared to .318 over the middle of the plate. • Keeping the ball down is also one of his hallmarks. In 2005 and 2006, 50 percent of his pitches ended down in the zone, resulting in a .178 opponent average. So, the recipe for Carpenter appears pretty simple: work the edges of the plate, keep the ball down and finish hitters off with a couple of nasty breaking pitches. We'll begin to see if he's still got it tonight, when he toes the rubber against the Braves.

Daily Notes for Wednesday: Carpenter returns

By Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> July 29, 2008, 2:27 PM

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Not that he is a recommended start, but Chris Carpenter is certainly a recommended pickup ahead of Wednesday's game. The Cardinals' former ace makes his long-awaited return from a battle with elbow problems that began in 2006 and allowed him only one start last season before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery.
He is not a recommended start because he tossed only 78 pitches in his rehab start Friday and might be on a short leash against the Braves. He is a must-pickup, though, as he is available in 64 percent of ESPN leagues and is poised to contribute to fantasy teams in all league sizes once he has a few games under his belt. The 2005 NL Cy Young winner is definitely worthy of your final bench spot.




Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Brian McCann owners are likely in a bad place after learning of the fantasy star's concussion Sunday. It's said to be "slight," but don't tell that to Ryan Church or Aaron Hill owners. You can't replace someone like McCann in most leagues, but the sparsely owned Jeff Mathis has been hitting .313 in the past week with a pair of home runs and nine RBIs. … Adam LaRoche, who has been on fire lately, tweaked his back Sunday. Doug Mientkiewicz doesn't offer much as a replacement for fantasy owners, so keep your fingers crossed that LaRoche can return soon. Watch him closely leading up to Wednesday, as he is 3-for-9 against the Rockies' Aaron Cook (with a 1.111 OPS). … Ken Griffey Jr. is a must-start versus the Astros' Wandy Rodriguez. In 12 career at-bats versus Way-Rod, Junior has nine hits and two home runs for a .750 batting average and 2.146 OPS. Look for No. 608 to land. … Left-handed pitchers would be right to gripe about an assignment to pitch against the Rockies. Zach Duke will be a victim Wednesday, facing a Colorado lineup that boasts five players with an OPS better than 1.000 versus southpaws. Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins are universally owned, but Chris Iannetta (1.311), Ian Stewart (1.411) and Jeff Baker (1.077) are not. … Jose Guillen is not expected back by Wednesday, but Mark Teahen has returned to the Royals' outfield. While maybe not on par as a replacement, Teahen has a decent .734 OPS against righties such as the A's Sean Gallagher. … Adrian Beltre is truly boom or bust versus the Rangers' Vicente Padilla. Beltre is a measly 6-for-32 (.188) against Padilla, but has four home runs for an OPS of .840 against him. … Keep an eye on Nomar Garciaparra's status. He's actually been useful of late, but left Sunday's game with a knee problem. Given his injury history, a backup plan for wherever you have been using him will be necessary. … Ryan Howard is not a fan of facing the Nationals' Tim Redding. In 13 career at-bats, Howard has managed just one single and six strikeouts. … While not always a lock to start, Marcus Thames should get the nod against Cliff Lee. Three of his five career hits against Lee (21 at-bats) have left the yard. … David Murphy will enter Wednesday's game as the only Ranger to hit a home run off of Mariners' starter Miguel Batista. I'll bet he won't leave the game with that same distinction. Start all your Rangers, even going as deep as Marlon Byrd and Chris Davis. The Rangers' .880 home OPS combined with Batista's 6.67 ERA should make for some fireworks. … In 27 career at-bats each, Jhonny Peralta and Grady Sizemore have an average better than .400 and an OPS better than 1.000 versus Nate Robertson. … Randy Winn is 3-for-7 in his career versus Chad Billingsley, and has two stolen bases in the past week. … Keep a close eye on Carlos Gomez's status heading into Wednesday. He has said he expects to be back Tuesday, and if that is true, you definitely want him in your lineup Wednesday. Only Tim Wakefield (23) has allowed more stolen bases than the 22 swipes against Gavin Floyd.
Pitchers: Chad Billingsley, Joba Chamberlain, Dan Haren, Jair Jurrjens and Aaron Cook are all "good to go." Billingsley faces the lowly Giants (.625 July OPS, worst in majors). Chamberlain is up against the league-average Orioles and coming off his best start. Haren is still maintaining that sub-1.00 WHIP and has allowed just two earned runs in 14 innings against the Padres this season. Jurrjens has never faced the Cardinals, but is coming off of eight shutout innings against the more-potent Phillies. Four of Cook's past five road outings have been quality starts, and he earned his 12th win against the Pirates with a quality start July 20. … While Ryan Dempster isn't quite as good on the road, he does have two quality starts against Milwaukee this season. Dempster's most recent start was also an eight-inning gem away from Wrigley Field (Houston). He's definitely still a worthy candidate for fantasy leagues Wednesday. An interesting note: in 131 career at-bats for all Brewers, only backup catcher Mike Rivera has ever homered off of Dempster. … I would warn you about the Tigers' great hitting in the month of July (.824 OPS), but Cliff Lee's most recent opponent -- the Twins -- had been just about that good this month, too (.809 OPS), and Lee dominated them. There is some concern due to the fact that the Tigers (.834 OPS, second-best in majors) are much better than the Twins (.694 OPS) versus left-handers, but Lee has won 14 games this year for a reason. He gets the benefit of the doubt here. … The Angels might be a tough opponent, but Josh Beckett fared well against them July 19. Don't hesitate to use him. … Gavin Floyd has three quality starts against the Twins this season, while compiling a 2-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in those starts. Other than a rough outing in Arlington, Floyd has been just fine this month, with three quality starts in his other three efforts. More than anything, Floyd is probably thankful this is an American League game and Livan Hernandez won't get to pick up a bat. Hernandez is actually 3-for-3 with a home run against Floyd. … Joe Saunders has two quality starts and one win against the Red Sox this season, the most recent a 6 2/3-inning no-decision July 19. The return of David Ortiz doesn't change things much, as Saunders has dominated Big Papi in 13 at-bats (just two hits for a .154 average). … Manny Parra's first loss in nine decisions and 15 starts can be attributed to David Riske, as the reliever allowed all three inherited runners to score July 25 in Houston. Parra had pitched a shutout until loading the bases in the seventh and getting the hook. Look for the rookie lefty to right the ship against the Cubs. Chicago has just a league-average .751 OPS in July. … Wandy Rodriguez and his 2.54 home ERA toe the rubber in Minute Maid Park on Wednesday. As always, use him at home. … He might fall short of a quality start, but Jonathan Sanchez should strike out enough Dodgers to make him useful in most leagues. Just don't start him if you need to protect ERA or WHIP, as he has struggled at time versus teams that hit lefties well (Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rockies) and the Dodgers are a top-10 offense in that category (.768 OPS). … It might be time to lay off Edinson Volquez a little. He is quickly approaching his career high for innings (144 2/3 between the minors and majors last season) and might be suffering from fatigue. That would certainly explain his uninspiring starts in his two most recent outings. In fact, throw out his 10-strikeout performance against the Brewers on July 12, and Volquez has whiffed only 14 batters in his previous 24 2/3 innings. That's a K/9 of 5.11, well below his season K/9 of 9.52. Bottom line: after two poor performances, slide Volquez to the bench for now. … Mike Pelfrey has had a terrific July; pitching at least seven innings in all five starts and allowing more than one run in just a single outing. The Mets' offense should back him for a win against the Marlins.
Waiver-wire pickups

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Jason Kendall is rarely a must-play, but Wednesday's matchup is a favorable one.


Hitters: Jason Kendall could provide a few hits as a spot-start catcher. He has enjoyed a career .448 average against Ryan Dempster (13-for-29). … Ray Durham looks like a good substitute second baseman for a day. He is 5-for-8 (.625) with a pair of doubles in his career versus Dempster. … For help in deep leagues at third base, Jack Hannahan is on a mild hot streak. During the past week, Hannahan was 8-for-22 (.364) with a home run and seven RBIs. … Also at third, Geoff Blum has three home runs in his past eight at-bats, and might get the call against righty Edinson Volquez. … There is no reason to waver on starting Garret Anderson, even with ace Josh Beckett on the hill. Anderson is 5-for-14 (.357) with a nice .938 OPS versus Beckett. … Jason Kubel has two career home runs against Gavin Floyd, with both of them coming earlier this season. If anyone gets to the White Sox starter, it'll probably be Kubel. … Consider Dave Roberts in your quest for steals. He is 9-for-15 (.600) against the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley. … Lastings Milledge is an option in 90 percent of ESPN leagues. He has a slightly better average against lefties this season, but against southpaw Jamie Moyer specifically, Milledge is a career 5-for-11 hitter (.455). … Geoff Jenkins not only starts thanks to a right-hander being on the mound against Philadelphia, but Jenkins has a good history against Tim Redding. In 19 at-bats, Jenkins has 11 hits and five doubles versus Redding for a .579 average and 1.652 OPS. … He's still eligible only at DH, but Jose Vidro has a pair of home runs in the past week and is a career .308 hitter against Vicente Padilla (39 at-bats).



Pitchers: Jamie Moyer is a strong spot-start candidate. His 2.93 ERA on the road speaks volumes, but throw in Washington's .670 OPS for the month of July (third-worst in majors) and Moyer looks like a lock to perform. … Josh Johnson is looking better after each start as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. However, a matchup with the hot-hitting Mets (.874 July OPS, second-best in majors) is not what the doctor ordered. … Livan Hernandez should be useful in ultra-deep AL-only leagues, in which pitchers are becoming quite the commodity with all the recent trades to the NL. The veteran has enjoyed pitching in the Metrodome this season, compiling an 8-1 record with a 3.91 ERA. … Both Brian Bannister and Sean Gallagher should provide decent starts off the waiver wire as they battle each other. The A's (.654 July OPS) and Royals (.679 July OPS) are among the bottom-five offenses for OPS this month. Both pitchers are coming off a 5 1/3-inning performance in which they allowed more runs than they were charged with, but should approach quality starts here thanks to the favorable matchup. … True to expected form, Vicente Padilla has a 2.00 ERA in three starts against the Mariners this season. I say expected because Seattle has wallowed near the bottom of the league for OPS versus right-handers all season. The Mariners July OPS of .685 is also quite paltry. Padilla, despite his 12 wins, is still available in 80 percent of ESPN leagues. Scoop him up for a start here. … Tampa Bay hasn't been all that dangerous versus lefties this season (.723 OPS) and the Rays' offense in July has been truly subpar (.685 OPS). Still, using a player in his first career start against the division leader is somewhat counterintuitive. Leave Scott Richmond alone for now. He could earn spot-start value if he shows he can dominate teams that are reliant on lefty bats. … Edwin Jackson might also be worth a spot-start. He pitched better than his line indicates in his most recent outing (four no-hit innings before surrendering a couple solo home runs) and has a good record against the Blue Jays' lineup. In 140 combined at-bats, the Jays are just .236 hitters against Jackson. Even Alex Rios, who has two home runs against Jackson, is just 3-for-18 (.167).