Postseason Odds
Last update: Sat Aug 9 04:46:01 2008 PT
<CENTER><SCRIPT>document.write('<scr' + 'ipt src=""http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/baseballprospectus.fsv/ros;sect=ros;fantasy=yes;game=no;tile=1;dcopt=ist;sz=728x90;ord=' + random_number + '?></scr' + 'ipt>');</SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/baseballprospectus.fsv/ros;sect=ros;fantasy=yes;game=no;tile=1;dcopt=ist;sz=728x90;ord=2434037616?"></SCRIPT><!-- -------------- Advertising.com ------ Fantasy Sports Ventures - Fantasy Sports Ventures 728x90 Tier 1-752068 ------------ --><SCRIPT src="http://uac.advertising.com/wrapper/aceUAC.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><!-- ---------- Copyright 2007, Advertising.com ---------- --><SCRIPT language=VBscript>Dim adsVB,poadsVB=0If ScriptEngineMajorVersion >=2 then adsVB=1Function adsAX(aX)on error resume nextIf adsVB=1 thenadsAX=Falseset po=CreateObject(aX)adsAX=IsObject(po)If (err) then adsAX=FalseElseadsAX=FalseEnd IfEnd Function</SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://r1.beta.ace.advertising.com/site=752068/size=728090/u=1/bnum=78090429/hr=8/hl=0/c=2/scres=5/swh=1280x800/tile=1/f=0/as=3/r=1/optn=1/fv=9/dref=http%253A%252F%252Fwww.baseballprospectus.com%252Fstatistics%252Fps_odds.php" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://tag.contextweb.com/TagPublish/getjs.aspx?action=VIEWAD&cwrun=200&cwadformat=728X90&cwpid=504160&cwwidth=728&cwheight=90&cwpnet=1&cwtagid=29359"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://tag.contextweb.com/TAGPUBLISH/getad.aspx?tagver=1&if=0&ca=VIEWAD&cp=504160&ct=29359&cf=728X90&cn=1&cr=200&cw=728&ch=90&cwu=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.baseballprospectus.com%2Fstatistics%2Fps_odds.php&mrnd=666285" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><IFRAME marginWidth=0 marginHeight=0 src="http://view.atdmt.com/HHC/iview/cntxihlh0180000091hhc/direct/01/1095804538?click=http://cdslog.contextweb.com/CDSLogger/L.aspx?q=C~504160~401~14624~26034~29359~4~305~25~baseballprospectus.com~2~8~1~0~2~1~PNZL6jWDBHzMxxtdcS3mZlLzVsjvgfa4CGYw3GMthgPh3UJmaQGgnQ^^~4~1~~" frameBorder=0 width=728 scrolling=no height=90 allowTransparency topmargin="0" leftmargin="0"><script language="JavaScript" type="text/javascript">document.write('
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Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Aug 9 07:19:25 EDT 2008<HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.3 92.0 86.7 81.4 76.2AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeRays 69 46 .586 94.8 67.2 61.52194 30.47627 91.99821 2.93265 3.53376Red Sox 66 50 .612 92.9 69.1 35.16217 47.88033 83.04250 -1.17297 7.68035Yankees 63 53 .554 86.6 75.4 3.10002 12.35335 15.45337 -2.99935 -2.34923Blue Jays 59 57 .540 81.3 80.7 .20929 1.56754 1.77683 -0.47722 -0.07014Orioles 55 59 .493 77.0 85.0 .00658 .07930 .08587 .03791 -0.07596</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.4 85.9 80.6 75.6 71.3 90.5AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeWhite Sox 64 50 .545 89.3 72.7 66.28136 2.52419 68.80555 2.59083 -3.25545Twins 64 51 .496 86.7 75.3 31.29521 4.04951 35.34472 1.21348 .83793Tigers 56 59 .516 80.3 81.7 2.29558 .26847 2.56405 -1.80887 -3.79621Royals 53 63 .466 74.1 87.9 .08669 .00145 .08814 -0.10485 .00824Indians 50 64 .492 73.5 88.5 .04116 .00128 .04244 .00105 .00038</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.5 82.1 77.2 64.8 96.6AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeAngels 72 43 .521 96.5 65.5 99.56642 .05516 99.62158 .39723 .54760Rangers 60 57 .481 80.8 81.2 .37697 .64196 1.01893 -0.64729 -1.44484Athletics 54 61 .520 78.4 83.6 .05662 .10118 .15780 .03738 -1.61644Mariners 45 71 .447 64.8 97.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.1</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL East: 89.9 86.3 82.6 77.6 62.1 90.0NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangePhillies 62 53 .524 87.1 74.9 40.63694 4.37635 45.01329 -7.41181 -3.08607Mets 61 54 .544 87.6 74.4 47.27861 4.10589 51.38449 7.20426 -7.19737Marlins 61 55 .482 83.3 78.7 11.00052 1.65933 12.65985 -2.53696 2.01205Braves 54 62 .521 78.4 83.6 1.08393 .11072 1.19464 .41170 .17560Nationals 44 72 .403 62.1 99.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.4 91.2 85.9 78.8 73.7 69.7 97.5NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeCubs 70 46 .572 96.9 65.1 83.99735 13.60591 97.60326 .83852 3.43452Brewers 65 51 .532 91.1 70.9 14.29528 60.99606 75.29134 5.02111 14.12054Cardinals 64 54 .496 86.3 75.7 1.69893 14.18839 15.88733 -3.50200 -8.87675Astros 56 59 .451 78.3 83.7 .00843 .23472 .24316 .06609 .13953Pirates 53 62 .402 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00393 .00393 .00069 -0.00988Reds 52 65 .428 71.8 90.2 .00000 .00155 .00155 -0.00192 -0.07307</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL West: 86.2 82.0 76.2 69.9 63.6 86.2NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeDiamondbacks 59 57 .518 84.2 77.8 52.94895 .35259 53.30154 -8.81911 -20.60822Dodgers 58 57 .514 83.6 78.4 44.41985 .36139 44.78124 8.30257 21.81159Rockies 53 65 .488 76.1 85.9 2.53448 .00317 2.53766 .47248 -1.86248Giants 48 66 .435 69.9 92.1 .09603 .00000 .09603 -0.04547 .02029Padres 44 72 .424 64.1 97.9 .00068 .00000 .00068 -0.00017 -0.00030Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.4</PRE><HR SIZE=2>As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a MonteCarlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the AdjustedStandings Report.
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for therest of the season, which is going to be between the current winningpercentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normaldistribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is usedfor the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while thevisitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game isdetermined by the log5 method.W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with theregression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won thechampionship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. Aswith championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
</PRE>
<CENTER>© 2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures</CENTER>
Last update: Sat Aug 9 04:46:01 2008 PT
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<NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></CENTER>
Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Aug 9 07:19:25 EDT 2008<HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.3 92.0 86.7 81.4 76.2AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeRays 69 46 .586 94.8 67.2 61.52194 30.47627 91.99821 2.93265 3.53376Red Sox 66 50 .612 92.9 69.1 35.16217 47.88033 83.04250 -1.17297 7.68035Yankees 63 53 .554 86.6 75.4 3.10002 12.35335 15.45337 -2.99935 -2.34923Blue Jays 59 57 .540 81.3 80.7 .20929 1.56754 1.77683 -0.47722 -0.07014Orioles 55 59 .493 77.0 85.0 .00658 .07930 .08587 .03791 -0.07596</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.4 85.9 80.6 75.6 71.3 90.5AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeWhite Sox 64 50 .545 89.3 72.7 66.28136 2.52419 68.80555 2.59083 -3.25545Twins 64 51 .496 86.7 75.3 31.29521 4.04951 35.34472 1.21348 .83793Tigers 56 59 .516 80.3 81.7 2.29558 .26847 2.56405 -1.80887 -3.79621Royals 53 63 .466 74.1 87.9 .08669 .00145 .08814 -0.10485 .00824Indians 50 64 .492 73.5 88.5 .04116 .00128 .04244 .00105 .00038</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.5 82.1 77.2 64.8 96.6AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeAngels 72 43 .521 96.5 65.5 99.56642 .05516 99.62158 .39723 .54760Rangers 60 57 .481 80.8 81.2 .37697 .64196 1.01893 -0.64729 -1.44484Athletics 54 61 .520 78.4 83.6 .05662 .10118 .15780 .03738 -1.61644Mariners 45 71 .447 64.8 97.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.1</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL East: 89.9 86.3 82.6 77.6 62.1 90.0NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangePhillies 62 53 .524 87.1 74.9 40.63694 4.37635 45.01329 -7.41181 -3.08607Mets 61 54 .544 87.6 74.4 47.27861 4.10589 51.38449 7.20426 -7.19737Marlins 61 55 .482 83.3 78.7 11.00052 1.65933 12.65985 -2.53696 2.01205Braves 54 62 .521 78.4 83.6 1.08393 .11072 1.19464 .41170 .17560Nationals 44 72 .403 62.1 99.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.4 91.2 85.9 78.8 73.7 69.7 97.5NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeCubs 70 46 .572 96.9 65.1 83.99735 13.60591 97.60326 .83852 3.43452Brewers 65 51 .532 91.1 70.9 14.29528 60.99606 75.29134 5.02111 14.12054Cardinals 64 54 .496 86.3 75.7 1.69893 14.18839 15.88733 -3.50200 -8.87675Astros 56 59 .451 78.3 83.7 .00843 .23472 .24316 .06609 .13953Pirates 53 62 .402 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00393 .00393 .00069 -0.00988Reds 52 65 .428 71.8 90.2 .00000 .00155 .00155 -0.00192 -0.07307</PRE><HR SIZE=2>
Average wins by position in NL West: 86.2 82.0 76.2 69.9 63.6 86.2NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D ChangeDiamondbacks 59 57 .518 84.2 77.8 52.94895 .35259 53.30154 -8.81911 -20.60822Dodgers 58 57 .514 83.6 78.4 44.41985 .36139 44.78124 8.30257 21.81159Rockies 53 65 .488 76.1 85.9 2.53448 .00317 2.53766 .47248 -1.86248Giants 48 66 .435 69.9 92.1 .09603 .00000 .09603 -0.04547 .02029Padres 44 72 .424 64.1 97.9 .00068 .00000 .00068 -0.00017 -0.00030Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.4</PRE><HR SIZE=2>As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a MonteCarlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the AdjustedStandings Report.
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for therest of the season, which is going to be between the current winningpercentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normaldistribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is usedfor the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while thevisitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game isdetermined by the log5 method.W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with theregression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won thechampionship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. Aswith championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
</PRE>
<CENTER>© 2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures</CENTER>
