regression to the mean thread

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

junkman p.do.d. is 11-3 past 14 picks. 78%

im gonna fade him until that 11-3 record comes to 65% or less

starting today, all plays are for 150 on the dog or to win 150 on the favorite.

st louis cardinals +120 150 to win 180

this is not bc i hate junkman or want him to go broke.just that all good things come to an end.

loved serious addictions views on this so im gonna give it a shot and track it.

seriousaddiction · Aug 11, 2008

I'll be watching and playing as well

seriousaddiction · Aug 11, 2008

that stiff Lang went 6-0 yesterday...I know its one day but ive never in my life seen this crumb have 2 good days in a row

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

lol ur on florida today tho man

seriousaddiction · Aug 11, 2008

im fading lang...wont be fading junk

seriousaddiction · Aug 11, 2008

unless that stiff lang plays on stl...I'll buy off my play if that happens

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

either way we should se how it works over a few months

seriousaddiction · Aug 11, 2008

ya def ...cant hurt to at least keep a record

thatoneguy · Aug 11, 2008

how do you know that now is the right time to start fading him though? just pick a spot and go until you're in the plus money?

entertained · Aug 11, 2008

Junk is a great capper....there are more plays than his POD, this will fail, have fun fading just the one play of his

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

entertained said:
Junk is a great capper....there are more plays than his POD, this will fail, have fun fading just the one play of his

im not saying he isnt.

his p.o.d. is 58% for the year and he is up about 17 units on it alone which is very good.

but right now he is 78% the last two weeks as a p.o.d noone can keep that up just fact.

so the law of averages sais if i fade him over the next few weeks i am guaranteed $

ty please dont talk in my thread

entertained · Aug 11, 2008

I'll talk in any thread I feel like talking in and if you don't like it, try the tracking forum:howdy:

I_Need_Money · Aug 11, 2008

You should title this thread.....regression to the schmein.

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

junkman 11-4 73%

schmeinz 1-0 +180

schmeinz · Aug 11, 2008

that one guy said:
how do you know that now is the right time to start fading him though? just pick a spot and go until you're in the plus money?

idk ive gambling for 6 years now hardcore. ive seen alot of shit and take every loss as a lesson learned and ik im not the best but for the last 2-3 years im up alot of $. being around gambling you will learn that 60% is sick actually i consider that to be a sharp and junkmans play of the day is 58% for the 140 days. thats a very big sample. and he is very very very good at what he is doing. but ask him and he will tell you 78% over 14 picks is insane. and everything evens out. hes a 58% capper which in my guess is top 5 percentile for gamblers from what ive seen. so thats a 20% margin of difference. i spot him 7% due to a smaller sample and i figure hes gonna lose a few soon that will make me some $. i made my 180 without thinking and im done fading him and im onto the next fade. this is all about the law of averages. i mean he could go 50% over the next 14 picks and with the juice in baseball we could both lose $. buttttt i got my 180 and im done fading him and ill wait till the next player to fade.

again best of luck to junkman his contributions to the multiple forums he posts on are appreciated very much. we should all be here to help

thatoneguy · Aug 12, 2008

i suppose, if it gets much higher than 78%, it wont be for long. curious though, why lay off now? 73% is still just short of impossible to sustain.

also, what of jpr's "public is all over these" threads? he's about to crack 70% over a 55 game sample. he's not really doing the picking there...

either way, i love what you're doing and look forward to helping if need be

regression to the mean thread

Search

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

seriousaddiction

New member

seriousaddiction

New member

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

seriousaddiction

New member

seriousaddiction

New member

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

seriousaddiction

New member

thatoneguy

RX Sophomore

entertained

New member

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

entertained

New member

I_Need_Money

Banned

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

schmeinz

MOST OF YOU DON'T FUCKING LEARN

thatoneguy

RX Sophomore

Forum statistics

Share this page