Hamels, Kershaw rely on more than just fastballs
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 12, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: TUESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Hamels
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Lefties Hamels, Kershaw face off
Two of the better young left-handers in the game face off in Los Angeles on Tuesday, as 24-year-old Cole Hamels goes against 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw. Hamels is enjoying another stellar season, posting a 3.35 ERA and a 3.59 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Kershaw has been excellent in his second stint with the Dodgers. Since being recalled from Double-A Jacksonville in late July, Kershaw has posted a 2.45 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched. Both lefties possess excellent secondary offerings. For Hamels, it's his outstanding changeup. Kershaw's weapon is his exceptional curveball. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">vs. changeups</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Hamels</td> <td>League avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>40 percent</td> <td>29 percent</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike percentage</td> <td>73 percent</td> <td>62 percent</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">vs. curveballs</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Kershaw</td> <td>League avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.133</td> <td>.168</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Groundball pct.</td> <td>74 percent</td> <td>48 percent</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Kershaw's fastball velocity (93 mph) trumps that of Hamels (90 mph). However, the Phillies' ace has been more effective with his fastball, holding edges in strike percentage (68 to 64) and batting average against (.241 to .277). Perhaps Kershaw's heavy reliance on his fastball makes his pitch selection too predictable. Kershaw throws his heater 73 percent of the time, compared with just 56 percent for Hamels. Kershaw is also working on a changeup (6 percent of total pitches), but he has thrown it for strikes just 48 percent of the time. Not surprisingly, Kershaw has fared considerably better against lefties (.222 BAA) than versus right-handed hitters (.271 BAA). With an excellent-but-inconsistent curve and a lack of confidence in his changeup, Kershaw is forced to throw his fastball a bit too much. Lefties flail at his heat (.154 BAA), but right-handers feast on the fastball (.300 BAA). Kershaw's changeup might never reach the otherworldly level of Hamels', but his development of the pitch into a quality major league offering would go a long way toward transforming the rookie from a talented prospect into a legitimate ace, like the man he'll face Tuesday. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Balfour
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Balfour surprising in Rays pen
Grant Balfour doesn't pitch by the book. The Rays reliever struggles to throw early-count strikes, can't command his off-speed pitches and takes one out of four batters to three-ball counts. Yet, Balfour has 12.98 strikeouts per nine innings, best for an AL reliever and sixth-best among all pitchers (minimum 20 innings pitched), and has held opponents to a .106 average. Balfour won't make the all-stat team, but his results are stellar: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Balfour, worse than average</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Balfour</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First-pitch strike pct.</td> <td>48.1</td> <td>58.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Off-speed strike pct.</td> <td>47.5</td> <td>61.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of PAs going to 3-ball counts</td> <td>26.4</td> <td>19.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitches per PA</td> <td>4.7</td> <td>3.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Balfour, better than average</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Balfour</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>27.7</td> <td>19.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct. of PA</td> <td>38.8</td> <td>17.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAA in 2-strike counts</td> <td>.110</td> <td>.188</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BAA with RISP</td> <td>.059</td> <td>.264</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Balfour's surprising 1.30 ERA follows a lackluster 7.81 last season, when Balfour made three appearances for the Brewers before being traded to Tampa Bay for Seth McClung. Balfour did not play at all in the majors in 2005 and 2006 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and extensive shoulder repair. He has steadily gained velocity on his fastball while shedding his ineffective off-speed pitches: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Balfour's fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Last year</td> <td>May-June</td> <td>July-August</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches</td> <td>77.7</td> <td>85.6</td> <td>92.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Avg. velocity (mph)</td> <td>93.2</td> <td>93.8</td> <td>94.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play pct. of swings</td> <td>27.2</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>20.9</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> His heater has been unhittable when it bores in on right-handed batters (0-for-11) and away from left-handers (0-for-14): Pitching mostly in the seventh and eighth innings, Balfour is a key element in the Rays bullpen that has allowed a .217 opponent average this season, best in the league. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
Berkman
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Puma's plunge
Lance Berkman had 17 home runs by the end of May. He slowed down a bit in June, but nobody could have dreamed that, when he hit his 22nd homer on June 30, he'd be stuck on that mark for the next 33 games. Berkman's homerless ended Sunday, so let's take a look back at what caused the power outage. First, a look at just how anemic Berkman's bat had been before Sunday's outburst: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman's drought</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key Stat</td> <td>Through June 30</td> <td>July 1-Aug. 9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting Average</td> <td>.365</td> <td>.252</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.307</td> <td>.234</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Extra-base hits</td> <td>52</td> <td>8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of swings and misses</td> <td>21.3</td> <td>30.0</td> </tr> </tbody></table>Some regression was to be expected for Berkman, who was unlikely to stay as hot as he had been. But his complete inability to drive the ball in July and August is baffling. He showed similar plate patience, but suddenly started swinging and missing 50 percent more frequently than he had in the season's first three months and simply wasn't hitting the ball hard. Berkman's performance against breaking pitches has remained constant throughout the season. It's how he has handled fastballs and changeups that has changed. Through June 30, he was hitting .378 on at-bats ending on fastballs, swinging and missing just 14.8 percent of the time. Since then, he has hit just .260 against fastballs, swinging and missing at nearly double the rate (28.9 percent). Pitchers who have kept fastballs down in the zone have experienced success against Berkman lately: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman vs. fastballs</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Fastball Location</td> <td>Through June 30</td> <td>July 1-Aug. 10</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>.298</td> <td>.294</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle</td> <td>.487</td> <td>.303</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Down</td> <td>.287</td> <td>.219</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Starting in July, the Astros either faced fewer pitchers who used changeups or faced pitchers who didn't throw it to Berkman as often (or both). In addition, Berkman was more aggressive against the pitch, with unimpressive results: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman vs. changeups</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Through June 30 </td> <td>July 1-Aug. 10</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average</td> <td>.455 (25-for-55)</td> <td>.200 (3-for-15)</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.364</td> <td>.267</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches swung on</td> <td>47.3</td> <td>56.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> With slugger Carlos Lee expected to miss the remainder of the season because of a broken finger, the Astros will need Berkman to start hitting again. Berkman's ability to make contact with fastballs and punish changeups will go a long way in determining whether he can help Houston overcome the loss of Lee.
Daily Notes for Tuesday: Full of aces
By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> August 11, 2008, 7:49 PM
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline --> A handful of the majors' best take the mound on Tuesday, with a trio of aces sporting sub-3.00 ERAs (Rich Harden, Edinson Volquez and Johan Santana), with Cole Hamels (3.35 ERA), Mike Mussina (3.27) and Scott Kazmir (3.20) close behind. Volquez pitches on seven days rest and tries to rebound from recent struggles: he had a 1.71 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 95 innings on June 20th, but has a 5.65 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 43 innings since. The Pirates have a .628 team OPS in nine games since Jason Bay was traded, and they're a division rival that Volquez has already faced twice, so he's in a good position to aim for his 14th win.
Injury report
Out
Carlos Lee, OF, Astros (finger)
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays (shoulder)
Marcus Thames, OF, Tigers (shoulder)
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (bereavement)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox (shoulder)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Ryan Braun, 3B/OF, Brewers (back)
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (hip)
Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins (finger)
David DeJesus, OF, Royals (hip)
Ken Griffey Jr., OF, White Sox (soreness)
Carlos Guillen, SS/1B/3B, Tigers (back)
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates (thumb)
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Jack Wilson, SS, Pirates (shoulder)
Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Jacoby Ellsbury has eight hits his past four games (through Sunday) with two home runs and three stolen bases; it looks like Ellsbury might finally be ready to break out of his summer-long funk. … With an impressive five home runs in 10 August games -- and two steals to boot -- Lastings Milledge is on a tear and is a required start, even against Johan Santana. … Dan Uggla is 4-for-10 off Kyle Lohse with a home run, and had four hits (two doubles) and three RBIs this past weekend. … Jose Guillen is 9-for-26 (.346) against Javier Vazquez in his career. … The White Sox have pasted Brian Bannister this season (9.31 ERA in two starts), and, unsurprisingly, a fair number of White Sox have individual success off Bannister: Carlos Quentin is 3-for-5 with two home runs; Jim Thome 5-for-12 with two homers and Nick Swisher 4-for-9 with one home run. Paul Konerko's poor track record (3-for-15 with five strikeouts) might mean White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will sit him out on Tuesday. … You can bench Brad Hawpe against a tough lefty (.253 average against) like Randy Johnson.
Pitchers: The Tigers hit a major league-best .303 at home, and the inconsistent A.J. Burnett is coming off a mediocre outing versus the A's (four runs allowed, including two home runs, in six innings). Despite the potential strikeouts, Burnett's a poor bet for a quality start. … Kyle Lohse has been rocked recently, with 14 earned runs and five home runs allowed in his past three starts. Toss in Lohse's 5.16 ERA on the road this season, and you'll have to pass on the matchup with the Marlins. … Ubaldo Jimenez was awful versus the Nationals in his most recent start, allowing eight hits and six walks in five innings, but it was his first poor start since an outing against the Tigers on June 27, so a mulligan is in order. Jimenez has also been great this season in Coors (3.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 12 starts), so keep him active.
Waiver-Wire pickups
Hitters: With a .316 average and .406 on-base percentage, as well has a 24-to-23 strikeout-to-walk rate, Denard Span has been an effective leadoff hitter. Already with five multi-hit games in August, and two stolen bases, Span's well on his way to a productive month. … Eleven of Jayson Werth's 15 home runs have occurred against left-handers (in 109 at-bats), and he has a .303 average versus a .240 mark against righties. Toss in five steals and Werth makes a strong case for a roster spot just for his prowess against left-handers alone.
Pitchers: Chris Volstad is off to a quick start to his major league career, with four quality starts in his first five games keyed by just one home run allowed in 33 2/3 innings. But make sure to pass against the Cardinals, whose .352 on-base percentage is third in the majors, and with Rick Ankiel expected back in the lineup by Tuesday. … In 10 home starts this season, Nick Blackburn has a 2.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but his numbers balloon to a 4.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road. Although Blackburn's low strikeout rate is worrisome, since he's pitching in the Metrodome, he's worth the risk against the Yankees. … The Mariners are hitting .323 in August, and Jon Garland has just 64 strikeouts and a .292 opponents' batting average this season. While normally a weak enough offense to spot start against, the Mariners will probably give Garland more trouble than he's worth. … Clayton Kershaw has looked much better in three starts since being recalled from Double-A. He's pitched six, six and seven innings after previously failing to pitch into the seventh inning in nine of his previous 10 starts (and nine in a row). The Phillies hit lefties moderately well, so Tuesday's a good test, but it's looking like now is the time to buy into Kershaw.
Weather concerns
For the most part, the weather looks ready to cooperate with the majority of the 15-game slate. There are a few exceptions though, most notably in Atlanta (Cubs-Braves), with a 60 to 90 percent chance of showers that could lead to a rainout. … The Rangers and Red Sox have a 30 percent chance of storms, as well as the Cardinals and Marlins affair. … The Giants-Astros and Yankees-Twins are the only weatherproof games.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com
Special to ESPN.com
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 12, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: TUESDAY
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Lefties Hamels, Kershaw face off
Two of the better young left-handers in the game face off in Los Angeles on Tuesday, as 24-year-old Cole Hamels goes against 20-year-old Clayton Kershaw. Hamels is enjoying another stellar season, posting a 3.35 ERA and a 3.59 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Kershaw has been excellent in his second stint with the Dodgers. Since being recalled from Double-A Jacksonville in late July, Kershaw has posted a 2.45 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched. Both lefties possess excellent secondary offerings. For Hamels, it's his outstanding changeup. Kershaw's weapon is his exceptional curveball. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">vs. changeups</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Hamels</td> <td>League avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>40 percent</td> <td>29 percent</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike percentage</td> <td>73 percent</td> <td>62 percent</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">vs. curveballs</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>Kershaw</td> <td>League avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.133</td> <td>.168</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Groundball pct.</td> <td>74 percent</td> <td>48 percent</td> </tr></tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Kershaw's fastball velocity (93 mph) trumps that of Hamels (90 mph). However, the Phillies' ace has been more effective with his fastball, holding edges in strike percentage (68 to 64) and batting average against (.241 to .277). Perhaps Kershaw's heavy reliance on his fastball makes his pitch selection too predictable. Kershaw throws his heater 73 percent of the time, compared with just 56 percent for Hamels. Kershaw is also working on a changeup (6 percent of total pitches), but he has thrown it for strikes just 48 percent of the time. Not surprisingly, Kershaw has fared considerably better against lefties (.222 BAA) than versus right-handed hitters (.271 BAA). With an excellent-but-inconsistent curve and a lack of confidence in his changeup, Kershaw is forced to throw his fastball a bit too much. Lefties flail at his heat (.154 BAA), but right-handers feast on the fastball (.300 BAA). Kershaw's changeup might never reach the otherworldly level of Hamels', but his development of the pitch into a quality major league offering would go a long way toward transforming the rookie from a talented prospect into a legitimate ace, like the man he'll face Tuesday. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Balfour surprising in Rays pen
Grant Balfour doesn't pitch by the book. The Rays reliever struggles to throw early-count strikes, can't command his off-speed pitches and takes one out of four batters to three-ball counts. Yet, Balfour has 12.98 strikeouts per nine innings, best for an AL reliever and sixth-best among all pitchers (minimum 20 innings pitched), and has held opponents to a .106 average. Balfour won't make the all-stat team, but his results are stellar: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Balfour, worse than average</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Balfour</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>First-pitch strike pct.</td> <td>48.1</td> <td>58.4</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Off-speed strike pct.</td> <td>47.5</td> <td>61.4</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of PAs going to 3-ball counts</td> <td>26.4</td> <td>19.9</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pitches per PA</td> <td>4.7</td> <td>3.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Balfour, better than average</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Balfour</td> <td>MLB avg.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> <td>27.7</td> <td>19.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strikeout pct. of PA</td> <td>38.8</td> <td>17.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAA in 2-strike counts</td> <td>.110</td> <td>.188</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>BAA with RISP</td> <td>.059</td> <td>.264</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Balfour's surprising 1.30 ERA follows a lackluster 7.81 last season, when Balfour made three appearances for the Brewers before being traded to Tampa Bay for Seth McClung. Balfour did not play at all in the majors in 2005 and 2006 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and extensive shoulder repair. He has steadily gained velocity on his fastball while shedding his ineffective off-speed pitches: <!-- begin table -->
<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Balfour's fastball</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Stat</td> <td>Last year</td> <td>May-June</td> <td>July-August</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches</td> <td>77.7</td> <td>85.6</td> <td>92.6</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Avg. velocity (mph)</td> <td>93.2</td> <td>93.8</td> <td>94.3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>In-play pct. of swings</td> <td>27.2</td> <td>21.9</td> <td>20.9</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> His heater has been unhittable when it bores in on right-handed batters (0-for-11) and away from left-handers (0-for-14): Pitching mostly in the seventh and eighth innings, Balfour is a key element in the Rays bullpen that has allowed a .217 opponent average this season, best in the league. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Puma's plunge
Lance Berkman had 17 home runs by the end of May. He slowed down a bit in June, but nobody could have dreamed that, when he hit his 22nd homer on June 30, he'd be stuck on that mark for the next 33 games. Berkman's homerless ended Sunday, so let's take a look back at what caused the power outage. First, a look at just how anemic Berkman's bat had been before Sunday's outburst: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman's drought</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key Stat</td> <td>Through June 30</td> <td>July 1-Aug. 9</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting Average</td> <td>.365</td> <td>.252</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.307</td> <td>.234</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Extra-base hits</td> <td>52</td> <td>8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of swings and misses</td> <td>21.3</td> <td>30.0</td> </tr> </tbody></table>Some regression was to be expected for Berkman, who was unlikely to stay as hot as he had been. But his complete inability to drive the ball in July and August is baffling. He showed similar plate patience, but suddenly started swinging and missing 50 percent more frequently than he had in the season's first three months and simply wasn't hitting the ball hard. Berkman's performance against breaking pitches has remained constant throughout the season. It's how he has handled fastballs and changeups that has changed. Through June 30, he was hitting .378 on at-bats ending on fastballs, swinging and missing just 14.8 percent of the time. Since then, he has hit just .260 against fastballs, swinging and missing at nearly double the rate (28.9 percent). Pitchers who have kept fastballs down in the zone have experienced success against Berkman lately: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman vs. fastballs</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Fastball Location</td> <td>Through June 30</td> <td>July 1-Aug. 10</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>.298</td> <td>.294</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Middle</td> <td>.487</td> <td>.303</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Down</td> <td>.287</td> <td>.219</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Starting in July, the Astros either faced fewer pitchers who used changeups or faced pitchers who didn't throw it to Berkman as often (or both). In addition, Berkman was more aggressive against the pitch, with unimpressive results: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="250"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Berkman vs. changeups</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Through June 30 </td> <td>July 1-Aug. 10</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Batting average</td> <td>.455 (25-for-55)</td> <td>.200 (3-for-15)</td></tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Well-hit average</td> <td>.364</td> <td>.267</td></tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of pitches swung on</td> <td>47.3</td> <td>56.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> With slugger Carlos Lee expected to miss the remainder of the season because of a broken finger, the Astros will need Berkman to start hitting again. Berkman's ability to make contact with fastballs and punish changeups will go a long way in determining whether he can help Houston overcome the loss of Lee.
Daily Notes for Tuesday: Full of aces
By Adam MadisonSpecial to ESPN.com
(Archive)
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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> August 11, 2008, 7:49 PM
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline --> A handful of the majors' best take the mound on Tuesday, with a trio of aces sporting sub-3.00 ERAs (Rich Harden, Edinson Volquez and Johan Santana), with Cole Hamels (3.35 ERA), Mike Mussina (3.27) and Scott Kazmir (3.20) close behind. Volquez pitches on seven days rest and tries to rebound from recent struggles: he had a 1.71 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 95 innings on June 20th, but has a 5.65 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 43 innings since. The Pirates have a .628 team OPS in nine games since Jason Bay was traded, and they're a division rival that Volquez has already faced twice, so he's in a good position to aim for his 14th win.
Injury report
Out
Carlos Lee, OF, Astros (finger)
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays (shoulder)
Marcus Thames, OF, Tigers (shoulder)
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (bereavement)
Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox (shoulder)
Day-to-day
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers (quadriceps)
Ryan Braun, 3B/OF, Brewers (back)
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets (hip)
Michael Cuddyer, OF, Twins (finger)
David DeJesus, OF, Royals (hip)
Ken Griffey Jr., OF, White Sox (soreness)
Carlos Guillen, SS/1B/3B, Tigers (back)
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pirates (thumb)
Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays (hamstring)
Jack Wilson, SS, Pirates (shoulder)
Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Jacoby Ellsbury has eight hits his past four games (through Sunday) with two home runs and three stolen bases; it looks like Ellsbury might finally be ready to break out of his summer-long funk. … With an impressive five home runs in 10 August games -- and two steals to boot -- Lastings Milledge is on a tear and is a required start, even against Johan Santana. … Dan Uggla is 4-for-10 off Kyle Lohse with a home run, and had four hits (two doubles) and three RBIs this past weekend. … Jose Guillen is 9-for-26 (.346) against Javier Vazquez in his career. … The White Sox have pasted Brian Bannister this season (9.31 ERA in two starts), and, unsurprisingly, a fair number of White Sox have individual success off Bannister: Carlos Quentin is 3-for-5 with two home runs; Jim Thome 5-for-12 with two homers and Nick Swisher 4-for-9 with one home run. Paul Konerko's poor track record (3-for-15 with five strikeouts) might mean White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen will sit him out on Tuesday. … You can bench Brad Hawpe against a tough lefty (.253 average against) like Randy Johnson.
Pitchers: The Tigers hit a major league-best .303 at home, and the inconsistent A.J. Burnett is coming off a mediocre outing versus the A's (four runs allowed, including two home runs, in six innings). Despite the potential strikeouts, Burnett's a poor bet for a quality start. … Kyle Lohse has been rocked recently, with 14 earned runs and five home runs allowed in his past three starts. Toss in Lohse's 5.16 ERA on the road this season, and you'll have to pass on the matchup with the Marlins. … Ubaldo Jimenez was awful versus the Nationals in his most recent start, allowing eight hits and six walks in five innings, but it was his first poor start since an outing against the Tigers on June 27, so a mulligan is in order. Jimenez has also been great this season in Coors (3.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 12 starts), so keep him active.
Waiver-Wire pickups
Hitters: With a .316 average and .406 on-base percentage, as well has a 24-to-23 strikeout-to-walk rate, Denard Span has been an effective leadoff hitter. Already with five multi-hit games in August, and two stolen bases, Span's well on his way to a productive month. … Eleven of Jayson Werth's 15 home runs have occurred against left-handers (in 109 at-bats), and he has a .303 average versus a .240 mark against righties. Toss in five steals and Werth makes a strong case for a roster spot just for his prowess against left-handers alone.
Pitchers: Chris Volstad is off to a quick start to his major league career, with four quality starts in his first five games keyed by just one home run allowed in 33 2/3 innings. But make sure to pass against the Cardinals, whose .352 on-base percentage is third in the majors, and with Rick Ankiel expected back in the lineup by Tuesday. … In 10 home starts this season, Nick Blackburn has a 2.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but his numbers balloon to a 4.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road. Although Blackburn's low strikeout rate is worrisome, since he's pitching in the Metrodome, he's worth the risk against the Yankees. … The Mariners are hitting .323 in August, and Jon Garland has just 64 strikeouts and a .292 opponents' batting average this season. While normally a weak enough offense to spot start against, the Mariners will probably give Garland more trouble than he's worth. … Clayton Kershaw has looked much better in three starts since being recalled from Double-A. He's pitched six, six and seven innings after previously failing to pitch into the seventh inning in nine of his previous 10 starts (and nine in a row). The Phillies hit lefties moderately well, so Tuesday's a good test, but it's looking like now is the time to buy into Kershaw.
Weather concerns
For the most part, the weather looks ready to cooperate with the majority of the 15-game slate. There are a few exceptions though, most notably in Atlanta (Cubs-Braves), with a 60 to 90 percent chance of showers that could lead to a rainout. … The Rangers and Red Sox have a 30 percent chance of storms, as well as the Cardinals and Marlins affair. … The Giants-Astros and Yankees-Twins are the only weatherproof games.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com
ushups:
