Tuesday - 1st Inning - 33-18 +$891.00 (17.82u)

lazzonya · Aug 12, 2008

no plays

sorry boys, no plays today and only 1 lean. no value whatsoever. be back tomorrow.

leans:

chicago @ atlanta - NO (-135)

Current Leaders/Trends:

rangers - 64.71% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
blue jays - 40.00% of their games have a run scored in the 1st inning
rangers - score a run in the 1st inning 45.38% of games
orioles - allow a run in the 1st inning 41.03% of games
reds - score a run in the 1st innning 23.53% of games
blue jays - allow a run in the 1st inning 23.33% of games

YTD:

33-18 +$891.00 (17.82 units)

Current Streak:

2-0 +$150.00

ROI: 23.37%

VenomousSanction · Aug 12, 2008

BOL Lazz...

thatoneguy · Aug 12, 2008

wow, the oswalt/lincecum battle doesnt fit?

w8lifterguy · Aug 12, 2008

Was thinking same thing on Cleve/Balt looks like sure "yes".
Appreciate your discipline, keep going strong.

lazzonya · Aug 12, 2008

that one guy said:
wow, the oswalt/lincecum battle doesnt fit?

i feel obligated to explain:

oswalt actually has below average 1st inning stats:

22 starts & 8 1st inning runs allowed (36.36%)

lincecum is lights out - 23 / 3 / 13.04%

the astros are one of the highest 1st inning run producing teams in the league:

63.87% of their games are YES, they score 37.82% of the time and allow 39.50% of the time

the giants are a solid NO team:

44.44% / 26.50% / 24.79%

this game should produce a NO (giants can't score and lincecum shouldn't allow), but at -145 all stats would have to point that way. the astros and oswalt don't.

peace

lazzonya

lazzonya · Aug 12, 2008

w8lifterguy said:
Was thinking same thing on Cleve/Balt looks like sure "yes".
Appreciate your discipline, keep going strong.

again, my reasoning:

olson is average:

19 / 6 / 31.58%

sowers is terrible:

13 / 6 / 46.15%

baltimore allows a ton of runs - 41.03%
baltimore scores about average - 30.77%

cleveland allows a low % - 26.27%
cleveland score around average - 33.90%

the hope here is that cleveland will score. however, sowers is the weaker pitcher. not enough stars align to lay a price of -145.

peace

lazzonya

w8lifterguy · Aug 12, 2008

Thanks for the heads up. This whole series looks like a shootout.

thatoneguy · Aug 12, 2008

lazzonya said:
i feel obligated to explain:

oswalt actually has below average 1st inning stats:

22 starts & 8 1st inning runs allowed (36.36%)

lincecum is lights out - 23 / 3 / 13.04%

the astros are one of the highest 1st inning run producing teams in the league:

63.87% of their games are YES, they score 37.82% of the time and allow 39.50% of the time

the giants are a solid NO team:

44.44% / 26.50% / 24.79%

this game should produce a NO (giants can't score and lincecum shouldn't allow), but at -145 all stats would have to point that way. the astros and oswalt don't.

peace

lazzonya

that's the exact reasoning i was using in asking about that game, giants cant hit, on the road, against a pitcher who can be as dominate as anyone in oswalt with the lee-less astros going against, starts-hot lincecum. however, once again, you're right in that it does look appealing, but the price is pretty steep. no such thing as juice as long as you win, but even a capper as strict as you has losses, so you're absolutely correct, thanks again lazz, you're one of the few reasons i even come to this board.

peace, tog

p.s. how often, if ever, do you take into account the first few batters in the lineup and their vs the starting pitcher, in a certain stadium, type situationals?

lazzonya · Aug 13, 2008

that one guy said:
that's the exact reasoning i was using in asking about that game, giants cant hit, on the road, against a pitcher who can be as dominate as anyone in oswalt with the lee-less astros going against, starts-hot lincecum. however, once again, you're right in that it does look appealing, but the price is pretty steep. no such thing as juice as long as you win, but even a capper as strict as you has losses, so you're absolutely correct, thanks again lazz, you're one of the few reasons i even come to this board.

peace, tog

p.s. how often, if ever, do you take into account the first few batters in the lineup and their vs the starting pitcher, in a certain stadium, type situationals?

i look at the first 4 batters vs. the opposing pitcher in every game i play. sometimes i comment on it if there is anything interesting (like wednesday's play).

peace

lazzonya