ok going to start to try bases strictly on the kelly criterion, using data to value games and playing the games based on the "advantage" i think i have over the line. i just think this would be interesting to track. not doing 1/2 or 1/4 kelly, so the roll will most likely fluctuate a great deal. Tons of plays and maybe the bank will build, if not oh well. ps the book im at has shitty baseball lines, so that does not help.
Tue Aug 19 Plays:
(Team Wager/To Win)
Phillies -230 $10.03/$4.36
Braves +180 $20/$36.00
Astros +215 $62.33/$134.01
Reds +260 $72.33/$188.01
Cards -210 $101.01/$48.10
Pads +180 $82.22/$148.00
Dodgers -146 $89.78/$61.49
Yankees +112 $15.74/$17.6
Angels +101 $24.85/$25.10
only games that showed no value: fla/sf, kc/cle, bos/bal, det/tex
Wagering a little over half the bankroll tonight with the largest play being on the cards. Lots of big dogs in the card, so hopefully we'll see some bite (yeah, Cueto, you...).
Well, i will update tonight.
GL
Tue Aug 19 Plays:
(Team Wager/To Win)
Phillies -230 $10.03/$4.36
Braves +180 $20/$36.00
Astros +215 $62.33/$134.01
Reds +260 $72.33/$188.01
Cards -210 $101.01/$48.10
Pads +180 $82.22/$148.00
Dodgers -146 $89.78/$61.49
Yankees +112 $15.74/$17.6
Angels +101 $24.85/$25.10
only games that showed no value: fla/sf, kc/cle, bos/bal, det/tex
Wagering a little over half the bankroll tonight with the largest play being on the cards. Lots of big dogs in the card, so hopefully we'll see some bite (yeah, Cueto, you...).
Well, i will update tonight.
GL
