Seven -200's on the board tonight

LockStock2SB · Aug 19, 2008

Anyone else find that interesting? It seems to me there's a lot of overvalued favorites tonight. I'm thinking about putting a unit or two on all those big underdogs tonight.

Fathers (Josh Banks) +175
Pirates (Ian Snell) +190
A's (Sean Gallagher) +210
Reds (Johnny Cueto) +255
Astros (Brian Moehler) +215
Braves (Jo Jo Reyes) +190
Nationals (Jason Bergmann) +200

I assume the the odds will only get better for these teams, so I'm going to wait a while before I place my wagers. But I think these are already real values tonight considering how much the favorites have been winning lately. The guys their facing aren't blowing me away either. Blanton, Davis, Looper, Slowey. I know Perez is pitching pretty well as of late. But other than Sheets and Harden, I don't think any of those guys ever deserve to be that big of a favorite. Even if only 3 win tonight, we'll be plus money. Thoughts?

sumday · Aug 19, 2008

LockStock2SB said:
Anyone else find that interesting? It seems to me there's a lot of overvalued favorites tonight. I'm thinking about putting a unit or two on all those big underdogs tonight.

Fathers (Josh Banks) +175
Pirates (Ian Snell) +190
A's (Sean Gallagher) +210
Reds (Johnny Cueto) +255
Astros (Brian Moehler) +215
Braves (Jo Jo Reyes) +190
Nationals (Jason Bergmann) +200

I assume the the odds will only get better for these teams, so I'm going to wait a while before I place my wagers. But I think these are already real values tonight considering how much the favorites have been winning lately. The guys their facing aren't blowing me away either. Blanton, Davis, Looper, Slowey. I know Perez is pitching pretty well as of late. But other than Sheets and Harden, I don't think any of those guys ever deserve to be that big of a favorite. Even if only 3 win tonight, we'll be plus money. Thoughts?

oakland's bullpen is tired and the twins arent dropping 2 to this shitty team, if u want to take a shot take one on the braves, nationals and astros

sumday · Aug 19, 2008

oh and i can see san diego losing also

entertained · Aug 19, 2008

the A's best arm in the pen won't be out there tonight, I think he pitched 2 innings lastnight:aktion033...I took the chaulkie Twins tonight but I'm chasing lastnights loss

BUCSnotYUCKS · Aug 19, 2008

IMO, the best play is no play. Alot of big FAVS but pretty justified.

krk1030 · Aug 19, 2008

We will only see more down the stretch. As games are so important to one team and meaningless to another.

Twisted · Aug 19, 2008

love the Braves for sum reason :think2: think I had a dream or sum chit :missingte A's, Pitt losers Rest WTF knows

smalls4411 · Aug 19, 2008

I like a play on braves and astros.

1 unit on braves at +200

1 unit on stros +225.

Either of them wins your up about a unit. I just think its a solid play

LockStock2SB · Aug 19, 2008

sumday said:
oh and i can see san diego losing also

Listen, I can see all of these teams losing. That's why they're underdogs. But that's not the point. The point is it doesn't always work out that way. And I wouldn't count on Braden Looper or Joe Blanton with that kind of juice. I really think the value is not in playing a few of these games, I'm going with a unit on all of them.

powerz · Aug 19, 2008

Before you Invest Consider the VALUE

Here is comparison the current lines VS stat fox projected lines you'll be surprised at the best value......

Read as Current line stat fox low high (range)

MILK -238.......-177 -181...Overvalued

Phillies -230.....-181-212....Overvalued, especially with their offense

NYM -203.....-161-193.....Overvalued, Bullpen????

STL -228......-141-147.....2nd Worst value OTB

Ariz -186......-172-213......Overvalued and have you seen davis's #'s

Minny -235....-141 -145.....Worst Value OTB

Clev -177.....-134-151.....Overvalued and for what no play off drive.

Cubs -285....-315-356.....BEST VALUE AND UNDER VALUED

GL guys....

I am taking a serious look at Houston, Atlanta, Oakland, KC, & Washington.......and of course the cubbies

smalls4411 · Aug 19, 2008

I could never take KC haha. If they ever get good like the rays have then i'd be screwed hahaha

honkee · Aug 19, 2008

PhilliesML+over and mets ML
pays 2.8 to 1

powerz · Aug 19, 2008

Teams often play down to their competition...Indians juts won their world series.

CLEVELAND is 0-8 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after a one run win this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.1, OPPONENT 5.9

REYES is 1-10 (-11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was REYES 2.6, OPPONENT 5.4 -

BUCSnotYUCKS · Aug 19, 2008

Twisted_One said:
love the Braves for sum reason :think2: think I had a dream or sum chit :missingte A's, Pitt losers Rest WTF knows

I'll put it to you like this, as a Braves fan.

Atlanta is one of the worst road teams in MLB. Their bats have been cool for about a month now. JoJo Reyes is always good to give up 3-4 runs, not to mention how horrible our bullpen is.

With that being said, here are some key things to take into account....

ATL 3-11 vs LHP on the road...horrible, yet alone horrible as is on the road.
Perez has yet to face the Braves this season after going 4-1 against them with a 3.03 ERA a year ago.
Reyes (3-9, 5.33) is 0-5 with a 6.98 ERA since June 18 - with 20 walks in 29 2-3 innings - and was sent to Triple-A Richmond at the end of July to work on his control.
In three starts in the minors, he walked eight in 16 innings.
Perez has lasted at least six innings in nine straight starts, going 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA in that stretch.

Being a Braves fan, I'm ready for us to lose this game badly.

smalls4411 · Aug 19, 2008

The braves usually own the mets, however they are brutal this year. I'm just betting on a solid dog to come through against Perez and that pen.

Perez loves to lose control in big games for those mets.

Seven -200's on the board tonight

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