Laying the juice w/ the White Sox?

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Okay, okay.. There's a lot of juice in this game and normally I'd skim right past it unless I was going to add it to a parlay, but...

R.A. Dickey is on the hill for the Mariners. He pitched out of relief on Friday and on Sunday, so technically we have a guy starting a game on just two days rest.

He's a knuckleballer and we can argue til my fingers hurt whether or not a knuckleballer's arm is rubber or not, but having watched Tim Wakefield for the majority of my life, I think the 3.3 innings he pitched over the weekend will definitely hinder his performance.

It should also be mentioned that he hasn't been pitching that well of late, good offenses beat up on him, and his numbers as a starter are 2-7 with a 6.03 era.

In addition to all that, his numbers are significantly inflated in day games.

Now, Gavin Floyd is no sure thing, but he's been pretty lights out at times this year and if the White Sox can put up the 7+ runs I expect them to, Floyd and the White Sox bullpen should have no problem silencing the pathetic Seattle Mariners.

I'm really curious as to if I'm just angry after last nights debacle and want the White Sox to beat the shit out of them, or if it's warranted and this is a play that is as close as it gets to a sure thing.

Thoughts.

teazeman · Aug 20, 2008

i think sea has lit floyd up in the past, tread lite if at all..........

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

He got beat up on the road in Seattle back in May.

Code:

May 11 	@ SEA 	L 3-6 	L 	3.2 	9 	5 	5 	1 	2 	0 	  	3 	2 	0 	43.1 	3.32

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

three and two-thirds innings against a team back in May isn't going to stop me from throwing a significant chunk of change on this game.

why should it?

MrRogers · Aug 20, 2008

u dont like CWS RL vs Dickey?

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Mr Rogers said:
u dont like CWS RL vs Dickey?

I couldn't find RL odds last night before bed.

-1.5, -115

Definitely something I'll consider this morning.

BUCSnotYUCKS · Aug 20, 2008

i took the sox RL

Chicago offense is on fire of late and Dickey won't stop it if King Felix couldn't.

DayTraderNation · Aug 20, 2008

BUCSnotYUCKS said:
i took the sox RL

Chicago offense is on fire of late and Dickey won't stop it if King Felix couldn't.

agree 1000%

MrCleo · Aug 20, 2008

at least the one thing that's been a constant with the White Sox this year is they absolutely feast on bad pitching at home

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

ML now at -250, RL now at -140.

I'm rather content with my -230 play with the jump that's happened in the last 12 hours.

DBCooper · Aug 20, 2008

not so fast

I am taking SEA at +1.5, +EV

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

DBCooper said:
I am taking SEA at +1.5, +EV

And why is that, kind sir?

DBCooper · Aug 20, 2008

knucklecup said:
And why is that, kind sir?

My consultant, not a service, in vegas, told me it was the better bet. based on his info and observations.

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Interesting.

There is nothing I see in this game (and I analyzed every single statistic I possibly could last night) that points to the Mariners winning today's game other than Gavin Floyd's appearance against them on the road back on May 11th.

I guess he could get shellacked again today, but I just don't see it.

Sticking with the ML though, not going to greedy this afternoon with the RL.

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Code:

Seattle
  	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	K 	LOB 	Season Avg 
I. Suzuki rf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.308 	
J. Reed cf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.282 	
R. Ibanez dh 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.303 	
A. Beltre 3b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.249 	
J. Lopez 2b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.296 	
J. Clement c 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.229 	
W. Balentien lf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.217 	
B. LaHair 1b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.296 	
Y. Betancourt ss 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.267 	
 Totals 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	 
 
Chi White Sox
  	AB 	R 	H 	RBI 	BB 	K 	LOB 	Season Avg 
O. Cabrera ss 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.270 	
A.J. Pierzynski c 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.290 	
C. Quentin lf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.296 	
J. Thome dh 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.251 	
P. Konerko 1b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.225 	
K. Griffey Jr. rf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.209 	
A. Ramirez 2b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.310 	
N. Swisher cf 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.235 	
J. Uribe 3b 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	.234 	
 Totals 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	 
 
Seattle
  	IP 	H 	R 	ER 	BB 	K 	HR 	Season ERA 
R.A. Dickey 	0.0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	4.92 	
 
Chi White Sox
  	IP 	H 	R 	ER 	BB 	K 	HR 	Season ERA 
G. Floyd 	0.0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	0 	3.75

No Dye.. damn.

Xmas32 · Aug 20, 2008

I think you're in pretty good shape here knuck, Clement is a gaping liability behind the plate and really struggled the last time he caught Dickey. I think he had 1 error plus 3 passed balls. CWS don't need any help scoring runs but they are going to get some help today. BOL on your play.

2PLAYSMAX · Aug 20, 2008

gametime on WGN

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Xmas32 said:
I think you're in pretty good shape here knuck, Clement is a gaping liability behind the plate and really struggled the last time he caught Dickey. I think he had 1 error plus 3 passed balls. CWS don't need any help scoring runs but they are going to get some help today. BOL on your play.

- Pitching on two days rest
- Clement can't handle the knuckleball

I like it as well. Thanks bud.

knucklecup · Aug 20, 2008

Go go White Sox..

Ichiro singles to start, great!

2PLAYSMAX · Aug 20, 2008

Bad start

2 on

Laying the juice w/ the White Sox?

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