Cubs-300!! Post Reasons Not To Back Them Inside

ToothedTeddy · Aug 21, 2008

Zambrano vs Fogg at Wrigley? Following a loss?? Just dont see how Chicago loses in this spot. Thought I'd never lay this much chalk on a game, but what does it matter when it's a virtual lock?

only concern is Zambrano shaky last 3 starts... but nearly threw a no-hitter vs Cincy last meeting.

Looking for reasons to not to pound Chicago tmrw. Letdown? Resting starters?

Any info / contrasting viewpoints are appreciated.

TruthBTold · Aug 21, 2008

Would anyone dare to risk 3000 to win 1000? Lets hear some responses on this bet. Tomorrow risking 3000 to win 1000, in the early mornings. Either a great afternoon or a depressing rest of the week. Any takers?
:shocked:

wallybell · Aug 21, 2008

Have you seen Zambrano's last few starts? He was giving up bombs left and right to the Cardinals his last start at Wrigley. The Cubs will likely win the game but surely there is something better out there to bet than a team at 3 to 1 odds with a struggling pitcher. Yes, Zambrano is struggling. Nothing is a virtual lock. I have seen countless times where a line is like this and the game comes down to the last inning and relievers. The big favorite will win most of these but you are taking a big chance laying that huge of a number. I am not a fan of the run line or a proponent of it but if you think this is such a lock I would bet the RL to at least keep the juice down. If it's going to be close do you really want to be laying 300? What I am saying is if you believe in the play that much you shouldn't be worried about the Cubs only winning by a run. Personally, I wouldn't play a 300 favorite nor would I lay 140 or whatever the line is on the RL is but given the choice of ML or RL, in this case I would play the RL.

raiderguy · Aug 21, 2008

Never lay that much chalk, you never know what can happen. What if Z gets nailed with a line drive in the 1st inning, and he has to leave? Anything can happen including the Reds winning this game.

arceo · Aug 21, 2008

after todays bottled up offense on both sides and the line being so heavy in chalk itll make you cough..take the over, sit back and watch both teams keep it competitive... 300 on anyone other than a guy named CC isnt tooo smart..

wallybell · Aug 21, 2008

Very true raider. It's just not worth it. Find something else or if there's nothing good out there wait until Friday when we have a full slate of games again. No reason to force a play and certainly not force a 3 to 1 favorite. Just think of it like this...you would be paying a 300% commission by taking the Cubs. Your ROI on that line would be very bad.

ToothedTeddy · Aug 21, 2008

thanks guys i really appreciate it. with the way faves have been covering lately i was seriously thinking about doing something similar to what TruthBTold proposed. Reds lineup isn't quite up to par with Cardinals, but I see what ur saying Walley.

I'd play the R/L but local doesn't take 'em. pretty crappy i know.

NickelsAndDimes · Aug 21, 2008

why not just parlay Cubs-300 and DBacks-300 for 1,000$...this way you dont get hammered on juice...and if you think Cubs are a virtual lock...then ure basically betting 1,000$ on the DBacks at even $$ since the Cubs are already gona win...Webb at home against that minor league lineup and there minor league starter when Zona needs to keep winning in a pennant race sounds like a virtual lock to me as well....1,000$ parlay to win like 900 or so for me Cubs/Dbacks.....and if the Cubs win during the day....you can bet like 500$ on the padres at night...and if the dbacks win u win 900-500 loss on Pads +400....and if Pads won...youd lose 1000 on the parlay...but win roughly 1500 on the Pads for 500 at +300 come game time tomorrow which makes u +500 on the day....if the Cubs win which is the virtual lock...you get to make free money...

I_Need_Money · Aug 21, 2008

While I don't know if I'd ever lay -300, all the Cubs hitters have excellent numbers vs Fogg, as does Zambrano. I'd say the RL would be good, and maybe even the Over. Reds lineup is pretty garbage though.

FairWarning · Aug 21, 2008

He is down to about 90-91 on his velocity. Just hook the Cubs with another team, like the D-Backs for a -120 parlay.

Gaz · Aug 21, 2008

Reasons not to play have all been listed. Couldn't agree with them more. Nothing is a lock, Z has not been impressive lately, no value on the risk/reward.

BUCSnotYUCKS · Aug 21, 2008

FairWarning said:
He is down to about 90-91 on his velocity. Just hook the Cubs with another team, like the D-Backs for a -120 parlay.

I agree...but I'd take Cubs RL and DBacks ML

VEGASBABY+ · Aug 21, 2008

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : MLB Baseball (Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs)
Chicago Cubs 8/21/2008 2:20 PM - (EST)
Money Line -320 for Game
J Fogg - R - Action C Zambrano - R - Action
Select #2 : MLB Baseball (San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks)
Arizona Diamondbacks 8/21/2008 9:40 PM - (EST)
Money Line -310 for Game
C Reineke - R - Action B Webb - R - Action
Amount : Risking 1,000.00 To Win 735.89 USD is it worth it ???????

boombaby · Aug 21, 2008

Bucs who do you like in baseball? Im heading to work in 5 min.

BUCSnotYUCKS · Aug 21, 2008

Cubs, Indians, DBacks, Marlins, Dodgers, Bue Jays, Angels.

Lots of juice today!

boombaby · Aug 21, 2008

Thanks! Bol!

DimeByDesign · Aug 21, 2008

raiderguy said:
Never lay that much chalk, you never know what can happen. What if Z gets nailed with a line drive in the 1st inning, and he has to leave? Anything can happen including the Reds winning this game.

That is saying that the Reds actually get a hit.....:lol:

MrCleo · Aug 21, 2008

VEGAS BABY said:
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : MLB Baseball (Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs)
Chicago Cubs 8/21/2008 2:20 PM - (EST)
Money Line -320 for Game
J Fogg - R - Action C Zambrano - R - Action
Select #2 : MLB Baseball (San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks)
Arizona Diamondbacks 8/21/2008 9:40 PM - (EST)
Money Line -310 for Game
C Reineke - R - Action B Webb - R - Action
Amount : Risking 1,000.00 To Win 735.89 USD is it worth it ???????

didn't you just start a thread with a parlay risking $1.83 :lol:

powerz · Aug 21, 2008

in his career when facing cinncy after aug 1 zambrano is 7-4.....dicey at -335.

Maybe have a look at his the tt

they avg 5.6 runs in his starts and and are 6-5 over 5.

Fogg should give up a couple today or he could pitch a gem that's why laying -335 is nuts

VEGASBABY+ · Aug 21, 2008

yes i did I was just showing what it would pay. Another poster thought it would pay 900 and I just wanted to show everyone that it wouldnt but thanks for checking up on me