Three Things To Watch: Sunday

Mets struggling in the late innings

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: August 24, 2008

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<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: SUNDAY

1. Mets need to finish strong

With less than 40 days left in the regular season, the Mets find themselves atop the NL East, much the same as they were a year ago. New York's catastrophic tumble and eventual second place finish at the end of 2007 is still fresh in the minds of many people. Ironically, the biggest area of concern for the Mets as they attempt to redeem themselves by charging hard down the stretch is that they have been one of the worst clubs this season at finishing strong during games. The league average OPS after the sixth inning this season is .725 (through Friday). Here is where the Mets rank both offensively and on the mound after the sixth inning: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">After the sixth inning (through Friday)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>OPS</td> <td>MLB rank</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Mets pitchers</td> <td>.724</td> <td>14th</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Mets hitters</td> <td>.667</td> <td>28th</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> There has been talk all season about the Mets' bullpen being unreliable, compounded recently with discouraging news about closer Billy Wagner's return from an injured elbow. But the tendency for the Mets' offense to go down easily late in games is perhaps a bigger concern. Through Friday, New York hitters posted an OPS of .797 in the first six innings of games, good for second-best in the National League behind the Cubs. Their .667 mark in remaining innings is second-worst in the NL, better than only the punch-less Nationals. The late-inning tail-off is a team-wide epidemic. Catcher Brian Schneider is the only Mets regular with better numbers in the latter part of games than in the first two-thirds of contests: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">First six innings and remainder of games (min. 234 PA through Friday)</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Mets hitter</td> <td>OPS inning 1-6</td> <td>OPS after 6th inning</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Jose Reyes</td> <td>.877</td> <td>.739</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>David Wright</td> <td>.964</td> <td>.802</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Carlos Beltran</td> <td>.907</td> <td>.643</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Carlos Delgado</td> <td>.862</td> <td>.768</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Brian Schneider</td> <td>.635</td> <td>.788</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Damion Easley</td> <td>.675</td> <td>.632</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Luis Castillo</td> <td>.797</td> <td>.497</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Endy Chavez</td> <td>.683</td> <td>.605</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Fernando Tatis</td> <td>.865</td> <td>.808</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Ryan Church</td> <td>1.073</td> <td>.464</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Today the Mets face the Houston Astros, who are below average on the mound in the late innings with a .740 OPS against after the sixth inning. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Matsuzaka

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Dice-K excels at getting out of jams

Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka has lowered his ERA from 4.40 in his rookie season in 2007 to 2.77 this year, and he already has as many wins (15) as he had in all of last season. He's improved despite decreased command. Last year Matsuzaka threw strikes 64 percent of the time; this season he's thrown 60 percent of pitches for strikes. His strikeout rate is lower, and he's walked 14 percent of batters compared to nine percent last season. Dice-K owes his low ERA to a superb ability to work himself out of jams. Last year, he allowed 29 percent of baserunners to score. This season, he's been closer-like in his stinginess, permitting only 18 percent of runners to score -- half the league average rate. With runners in scoring position, Matsuzaka's opposing batting average is .190, and his batting average against with two outs is fourth best in the league (minimum: 50 at-bats): <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Runners in scoring position</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Outs</td> <td>Matsuzaka</td> <td>MLB average</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>0</td> <td>.250</td> <td>.300</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>1</td> <td>.235</td> <td>.279</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>2</td> <td>.145</td> <td>.240</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Matsuzaka throws only slightly more strikes with runners in scoring position, but he changes eye levels better in those situations -- elevating his fastball and keeping his off-speed stuff down: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Matsuzaka's pitch location</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Not RISP</td> <td>RISP</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of fastballs that are up</td> <td>29.1</td> <td>40.1</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of off-speed pitches that are down</td> <td>52.8</td> <td>57.1</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Matsuzaka pitched brilliantly against Toronto on April 30 when he allowed only four baserunners in seven shutout innings. The Blue Jays are capable of cashing in runners, though -- they rank third in the league in well-hit average against right-handers with RISP. 3. Control artist Slowey can attack hitters, too

The Minnesota Twins have issued the fewest walks of any team in the majors, and a prominent reason for that is the surgical command of right-hander Kevin Slowey. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) --> Slowey

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> The 24 year-old product of Winthrop University has a sparkling 5.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2008, issuing just 17 free passes in 121 1/3 innings pitched while posting a 3.78 ERA. Slowey relies heavily upon his 90 mph fastball, throwing the pitch 71 percent of the time. He has located his fastball for strikes an astounding 70 percent of the time, well above the American League average of 64 percent. What really separates Slowey from his command-and-control contemporaries, however, is his ability to pitch inside and up in the zone to hitters. Possessing ordinary fastball velocity has not prevented Slowey from being effective inside or up in the zone: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">OPS vs. fastballs</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>Slowey</td> <td>AL average</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Inside</td> <td>.628</td> <td>.751</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Up</td> <td>.592</td> <td>.790</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> American league hitters have accrued a .459 slugging percentage against high fastballs in Slowey's typical velocity range (89-91 mph). Slowey's opponents are slugging just .213 against his elevated heaters in that range. If there is one downside to Slowey's fearlessness in the strike zone, it is the occasional home run surrendered. One out of every 30 batters Slowey faces has taken him deep this year. The AL average is one homer per 39 plate appearances.

Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: J.D. Drew was diagnosed with a herniated disk Friday and is probably closer to out, though he might not land on the disabled list, considering rosters expand September 1. … The return of Ryan Church puts Fernando Tatis in a part-time role, and although Church is expected to get Sunday off, Tatis hasn't been especially productive against southpaws this season (zero home runs in 77 at-bats). Tatis wasn't hitting in August anyway, so feel free to remove him from your mixed-league rosters. … Jose Guillen still remains useful against lefties (eight home runs, .292 average), and right-handed hitters are batting .302 against Kenny Rogers this season.
Pitchers: A.J. Burnett has a 1.98 ERA in five starts versus the Red Sox since joining the AL East in 2006. … The Rays are hitting only .244 against left-handed pitching, and without Evan Longoria in the lineup, they don't pose much of a threat to any quality left-hander. Mark Buehrle should bounce back nicely from a poor start versus the Mariners. … Johnny Cueto is coming off an impressive start against the Cubs - one run in seven innings, six strikeouts - and has a 3.13 ERA over his past four starts, but you have to bench the homer-prone fireballer in his first career start at Coors Field. With 26 home runs allowed in 152 innings, it would seem the more substantial the hitters' park, the worse off Cueto is.
Waiver-Wire pickups
Hitters: Willy Aybar has multiple hits in four of his past five games and is now hitting .303 with three home runs in 66 August at-bats. … Away from Petco Park, Jody Gerut has shown some impressive power, with 10 home runs and a .552 slugging percentage in 143 at-bats. He has been particularly hot since the All-Star break, with a .327 average and nine home runs, six of which he has hit in August.
Steve Mitchell/US Presswire
Braden Looper has been pitching mighty well of late.


Pitchers: Braden Looper has quietly put together quite the streak of effectiveness, with a 2.02 ERA his past six starts. His opponent Sunday, the Braves, have continued to hit poorly since Looper held them to two runs in seven innings back on July 28, and with the Cardinals offense hitting .310 this month, Looper is a wise choice to spot-start. … The Reds are an easy offense to pick on, with an absurdly low .278 on-base percentage in August, last in the majors. Ubaldo Jimenez has allowed 27 hits and 13 runs his past three starts, but in 11 starts prior to that, he had a 1.87 ERA, so he should be a good bet to get back on track. … After holding the A's to one earned run over seven innings in his last start, Kevin Slowey has allowed one run or less in four of his past five starts, good enough for a 2.16 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. Slowey also has a 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in that span, so it's safe to say he is pitching quite well, and a matchup with the Angels looks good on paper. … Hiroki Kuroda dominated the Phillies just 10 days ago, striking out seven while allowing zero walks, one run and just two hits. Kuroda has been a boom-or-bust pitcher this season, but with the Phillies having struggled to hit all month, it's hard to see things going too differently in the rematch. Weather concerns
Tigers-Royals has a moderate weather concern, with a 30-to-40 percent chance of storms at game time and throughout the afternoon. The Braves-Cardinals affair could briefly be subject to precipitation, but for the most part clear skies are expected across the league. … Domes cover games in Toronto, Milwaukee, Arizona and Seattle.

Really believe Twins with Slowey today are an excellent value at +145. Angels hitters some of the most undisciplined hitters in the game, Slowey's spot-on accuracy will work to his advantage.

Thanks for the updates