ODDS ’N’ ENDS:
Sports wagering seminar covers all the bases
Oddsmaker discusses Las Vegas’ relationship with the NCAA, football predictions, and how lines are set
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Sam Morris
Marylin Mackett listens to handicappers talk Saturday at the VegasInsider.com Football Handicapping Seminar at Red Rock Resort.
<!-- close leadPhoto -->By <CITE>Jeff Haney</CITE>
Mon, Aug 25, 2008 (2 a.m.)
A week previous, Kenny White had been addressing a group of NCAA officials on their home turf in Indianapolis in the role of a special guest from Las Vegas.
The title of that seminar had an ominous sound: “Don’t Bet On It.”
White, the head oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was in front of a friendlier crowd Saturday at Red Rock Resort as a featured speaker at a football betting symposium sponsored by the Vegas Insider gambling Web site.
“What a difference a week makes,” said White, whose company provides sports betting odds to casinos throughout Nevada. “I’m giving a seminar to a crowd that’s bet on everything.”
White, a member of a panel of odds-makers and sports book managers, briefly recapped his experience at the NCAA meeting before a discussion on how betting lines are set.
Although the NCAA and Las Vegas sports betting interests have been at each other’s throat in the past, White characterized their current relationship as “really going well.” The key, White said, is convincing NCAA officials they share a common goal with Las Vegas oddsmakers: seeking to ensure that games are played in a fair, honest manner.
“They (NCAA officials) are behind everything we do here in Nevada, since it is legal,” White said. “They’re worried more now about the illegal sports wagering than anything else. It’s a great relationship to have.”
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, accompanied White to the NCAA seminar (though not to the symposium at Red Rock). He also found NCAA executives more willing to work with, rather than against, Las Vegas officials than in years past.
The answer to a common question from officials with sports organizations including the NCAA — how Las Vegas bookmakers spot unusual patterns in betting line movements — has changed in recent years, Kornegay said.
Traditionally, a suspicious line move would entail a flood of money on one side of a game and a subsequent huge move in the point spread. It’s different today as a result of the global sports betting market, Kornegay said.
In the modern environment, if there’s a shift in the point spread from 3 to 3 1/2 driven by a nefarious group in America, for example, you might see a betting syndicate halfway around the world buy the 3 1/2, not knowing the fix is in. So oddsmakers need to be on the lookout not only for games that command one-way betting action, but also for situations in which inordinately large amounts of money are bet on both sides.
Back at the Vegas Insider seminar at Red Rock, which also featured panels of sports handicappers and professional gamblers Saturday and Sunday, White fielded a series of informed questions from the crowd.
Later presentations included plenty of predictions regarding early-season football games, especially those in the first week of college play, but the odds-makers’ discussion on more abstract aspects of the business emerged as the most intriguing segment of the seminar.
For example, White addressed the issue of whether early or late line moves are more accurate in predicting the results of football games vis a vis the point spread, pointing out that it varies by season.
“Last year if you followed early line moves, you were a big loser,” White said. “If you would have followed game-day line moves, you were a big winner. Two years ago if you followed the early line moves you were a winner. Things change from year to year.”
After a question about how bookmakers adjust the line in response to sizable bets, Micah Roberts, sports book director at Sunset Station, said a bettor’s record in predicting big line moves with his wagers is more significant even than that bettor’s win-loss record against the spread.
“We are not handicappers on our side of the counter,” Roberts said. “We’re bookmakers, and we move the line according to how the money comes in. We respect (Las Vegas Sports Consultants figures) immensely, but sometimes the market value isn’t there. The market is a huge key in what we put up as a number.”
White estimated perhaps half of the players and coaches in lined games are aware of the point spread while the other half “couldn’t care less.” He recalled former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne saying that “a guy (oddsmaker) out in Las Vegas” was making his job tougher — a reference to university boosters betting on the team to consistently cover the point spread as a big favorite.
Osborne later became well-known as a staunch anti-gambling advocate.
“He knows the pressure that he endured over the years from the backers and the alumni,” White said. “They know what the point spread is.”
Sports wagering seminar covers all the bases
Oddsmaker discusses Las Vegas’ relationship with the NCAA, football predictions, and how lines are set
<!-- end story-header -->
Marylin Mackett listens to handicappers talk Saturday at the VegasInsider.com Football Handicapping Seminar at Red Rock Resort.
<!-- close leadPhoto -->By <CITE>Jeff Haney</CITE>
Mon, Aug 25, 2008 (2 a.m.)
A week previous, Kenny White had been addressing a group of NCAA officials on their home turf in Indianapolis in the role of a special guest from Las Vegas.
The title of that seminar had an ominous sound: “Don’t Bet On It.”
White, the head oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was in front of a friendlier crowd Saturday at Red Rock Resort as a featured speaker at a football betting symposium sponsored by the Vegas Insider gambling Web site.
“What a difference a week makes,” said White, whose company provides sports betting odds to casinos throughout Nevada. “I’m giving a seminar to a crowd that’s bet on everything.”
White, a member of a panel of odds-makers and sports book managers, briefly recapped his experience at the NCAA meeting before a discussion on how betting lines are set.
Although the NCAA and Las Vegas sports betting interests have been at each other’s throat in the past, White characterized their current relationship as “really going well.” The key, White said, is convincing NCAA officials they share a common goal with Las Vegas oddsmakers: seeking to ensure that games are played in a fair, honest manner.
“They (NCAA officials) are behind everything we do here in Nevada, since it is legal,” White said. “They’re worried more now about the illegal sports wagering than anything else. It’s a great relationship to have.”
Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton, accompanied White to the NCAA seminar (though not to the symposium at Red Rock). He also found NCAA executives more willing to work with, rather than against, Las Vegas officials than in years past.
The answer to a common question from officials with sports organizations including the NCAA — how Las Vegas bookmakers spot unusual patterns in betting line movements — has changed in recent years, Kornegay said.
Traditionally, a suspicious line move would entail a flood of money on one side of a game and a subsequent huge move in the point spread. It’s different today as a result of the global sports betting market, Kornegay said.
In the modern environment, if there’s a shift in the point spread from 3 to 3 1/2 driven by a nefarious group in America, for example, you might see a betting syndicate halfway around the world buy the 3 1/2, not knowing the fix is in. So oddsmakers need to be on the lookout not only for games that command one-way betting action, but also for situations in which inordinately large amounts of money are bet on both sides.
Back at the Vegas Insider seminar at Red Rock, which also featured panels of sports handicappers and professional gamblers Saturday and Sunday, White fielded a series of informed questions from the crowd.
Later presentations included plenty of predictions regarding early-season football games, especially those in the first week of college play, but the odds-makers’ discussion on more abstract aspects of the business emerged as the most intriguing segment of the seminar.
For example, White addressed the issue of whether early or late line moves are more accurate in predicting the results of football games vis a vis the point spread, pointing out that it varies by season.
“Last year if you followed early line moves, you were a big loser,” White said. “If you would have followed game-day line moves, you were a big winner. Two years ago if you followed the early line moves you were a winner. Things change from year to year.”
After a question about how bookmakers adjust the line in response to sizable bets, Micah Roberts, sports book director at Sunset Station, said a bettor’s record in predicting big line moves with his wagers is more significant even than that bettor’s win-loss record against the spread.
“We are not handicappers on our side of the counter,” Roberts said. “We’re bookmakers, and we move the line according to how the money comes in. We respect (Las Vegas Sports Consultants figures) immensely, but sometimes the market value isn’t there. The market is a huge key in what we put up as a number.”
White estimated perhaps half of the players and coaches in lined games are aware of the point spread while the other half “couldn’t care less.” He recalled former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne saying that “a guy (oddsmaker) out in Las Vegas” was making his job tougher — a reference to university boosters betting on the team to consistently cover the point spread as a big favorite.
Osborne later became well-known as a staunch anti-gambling advocate.
“He knows the pressure that he endured over the years from the backers and the alumni,” White said. “They know what the point spread is.”
