Service Plays Sunday 8/31/08

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ace-ace/allen eastman

3-Unit Play. #209 Colorado (-10.5) over Colorado State (7:30 p.m., Sunday, Aug. 31)-105

VIP Lock Club - 250* Colorado

KBHOOPS - 3* Colorado

Brian Gabrielle

Pepsi 500

Two Weeks Ago: We skipped last weekend's Bristol race, but two weeks ago, back in Michigan, we nailed Carl Edwards at a +600 wager. Since we didn't have a head-to-head selection, that gave us a weekly win of 0.67 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 134%. For the season, that gives us a profit of 6.69 units on 31.5 units wagered, a return of 21.2%. We've also given you winning weeks in 18 of 23 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won four units on three units wagered, a return of 133%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 16.73 units on 89 units wagered, a return of 18.8%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. We're back at a big wide-open two-miler Sunday night for the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana, which is a very similar track to the Michigan course where the Smokeless Set ran just two weeks ago. Edwards won the first time around in Fontana, back in February, and plus won that Michigan race going away in mid-August. He deserves to be a pretty heavy favorite here.

Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. Then again, how can you not pick the No. 18 car? Busch has been good on every track type under the sun this season, and it's unlikely that he'll suddenly lay an egg a week after he and Edwards got into a heated post-race skirmish at Bristol. I expect to see both of NASCAR's leading drivers up near the front, duking it out for a win in this, one of the circuit's marathon events.

Take David Ragan (+3000), 1/6th unit. And if we're going to take two favorites with our first two picks, let's go out on a slender limb with the third, shall we? Now, granted, Mr. Ragan has never won a Sprint Cup race. But his best career finish, a third place, came two weeks ago at the Michigan track which is so much like Fontana. Roush rides extraordinarily well at both Fontana and Michigan, and Ragan is currently 13th in points, giving him a spectacular chance to make his first Chase for the Championship. Yeah, this is a long shot. But I give Ragan a chance to stick around for most of the afternoon and evening, and then shock the world by winning his first career Cup race.

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

11* FRESNO STATE over *Rutgers
Late Score Forecast:
FRESNO STATE 34 - *Rutgers 28

10* KENTUCKY over *Louisville
Late Score Forecast:
KENTUCKY 30 - Louisville 23

Matt Foust

Louisville -165

The Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals renew their bitter rivalry on Sunday afternoon at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Louisville Head Coach Steve Kragthorpe enters his second season as the leader of the Cardinals, while UK’s Rich Brooks is going into his sixth year as head coach.

Last year Louisville was a major disappointment. Prior to the season, they were nationally ranked, but they finished the year at 6-6 and did not play in a bowl game. This year figures to be different as the team has been under Kragthorpe for over a season now. The Cardinals are returning just nine starters, and just four from an offense that averaged 35.2 per game last year. However, they have a talented offensive line in place and a powerful running back in Brock Bolen. Quarterback Brian Brohm has moved on to the NFL, but stepping is a very highly touted Hunter Cantwell.

The Cardinal offense will be working against what should be an improved Kentucky defense. They return eight starters from a team that allowed 29.6 points per game and 191 yards per game on the ground. This defense will be good enough to keep UK in the game, but by the 3rd and 4th quarters, they will simply have been on the field to long to hold up. The Kentucky offense returns just four starters and they lost quarterback Andre’ Woodson. They do not have the talent coming in that Louisville does to replace their departing lettermen.

Things to consider: Louisville is 9-1 as a home favorite the last four seasons versus a non-conference opponent.

Take the CARDINALS ML -165.

Jimmy The Moose

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

The Mariners have won 5 of their last 6 games but today they lose to the Indians. The Mariners are 4-8 in their last 12 vs. AL Central opponents. The Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Silva take the mound this afternoon and the Mariners are 5-16 in his last 21 starts. Seattle has lost 7 of his last 9 road starts. The Indians are 16-6 in their last 22 games. Cleveland has won 8 of their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland has won 2 of Jackson's 3 starts. Cleveland has the edge on the mound and won't lose a 3rd in a row. Play on the Cleveland Indians -.

Marc Lawrence

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres

The Padres close out their weekend series with the Rockies when Jake Peavy takes on Jeff Francis in San Diego. Peavy enters todays game knowing he is 14-5 in his career team starts at home during the month of August. He also owns a super-sharp 1.54 ERA at home this season, nearly three full runs better than his 4.51 ERA on the road. With that, we'll stay at home with Peavy and the Padres here today.

Big Al

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: New York Mets

At 1:10pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Mets over the Florida Marlins. The Cinderella season of the Florida Marlins is pretty much coming to an end. With a month to go, the Marlins are behind in the NL East Division by six games, with two teams in front of them, both of which are loaded with talent. So, it's unlikely that both the Phillies and today's opponent, the Mets, will fold up and go away in September. But whatever the outcome, Florida has no doubt exceeded everyone's expectations as at the beginning of the season most people figured the Marlins would be down in the cellar with the Nationals. They are a pretty young team and if they can keep some of their core players together, the future may be bright. Pedro Martinez is definitely not a young player, and certainly not the dominating starter he used to be a few years ago, but he is determined to play a significant role for the Mets down the stretch. The team seems to rally behind him lately when he pitches, and he has not been wanting for run support. In his last four starts, the Mets have scored a total of 22 runs for Martinez although they have only won two of those games. But Martinez loves pitching during the day as in four afternoon starts this season he is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.57. The Marlins would love to win a game for lefthander Scott Olsen but that just doesn't seem to be in the cards right now. Since the All-Star break, the 24-year-old has had eight starts, with Florida winning the first of those on July 19, and then laying a goose egg so far since then. This will be a very tough spot for him to get his second post-break win. Take the Mets

Sports Gambling Hotline

Kentucky at LOUISVILLE

Even with both schools breaking in new signal-callers, we will play this rivalry game to sail OVER the posted price.

Last year, the teams combined for 74 points, while the total in this one is significantly lower than last year, we still feel this game will find its way OVER the posted total.

Louisville's defense is ALWAYS an achilles heel, and last year saw the Redbirds allow a whopping 25 touchdown passes, while picking off just 7 passes all season long!

It may take a while for the teams to get things rolling, but once they do, we like the points to start adding up.

We say play the OVER in this Bluegrass Battle royale!

2*OVER

Karl Garrett

Colorado vs. COLORADO STATE +11 at Denver

The G-Man realizes there is a reason the linesmakers, and the betting public believe there is a double-digit difference between these schools, but I just don't feel that is true.

New Colorado State head coach Steve Fairchild has been on Sonny Lubick's staff, and certainly knows a thing or two about this Rocky Mountain Rivalry, and I have a feeling he is not going to let his team get embarrassed in this opening game spot.

7 of the last 8 series meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the last 4 have been decided by just 4 points or less!

The underdog in this series is on a 9-3 spread run, and the G-Man is just having a hard time believing the Buffaloes are going to blow this team out.

Let's make it a small play on the underdog Rams to to keep this one a lot closer than people expect.

Take the points!

2* COLORADO STATE

Bobby Maxwell

Colorado State +11½ vs. Colorado, at Denver

The Buffs are the more talented team in this series, but we're going to play Colorado State to hang tough as this rivalry always seems to always come down to the final possession.

This game has been decided by seven points or less in each of the last six years, including last year when Colorado got a 31-28 win in OT, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. The underdog was 5-0 ATS and 8-1 ATS before last year's game. Also leaning our favor is the fact Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine series clashes.

Colorado was inconsistent last year and finished 2-5 SU and ATS in the last seven games. They have sophomore QB Cody Hawkins under center but he had trouble finding his team when he threw the ball, tossing 19 TDs and 17 INTs.

Colorado State has got some experienced runners in the backfield, including Kyle Bell who led the Mountain West Conference in 2005 with 1,288 yards rushing. They've also got a big target at TE in Kory Sperry who had three TDs in two-plus games to start last season before injuring his ACL.

The Rams have first-year head coach Steve Fairchild on the sidelines and they will come out fired up for him in this one. The teams are playing at Invesco Field in Denver so there isn't a home-field advantage for either one.

But if it goes like always, this one will be close to the end. Grab the points and play Colorado State.

3* COLORADO STATE

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Kentucky at Louisville

Louisville opens the season against archrival Kentucky in the annual battle for the Governor’s Cup in Papa John’s Cardinals Stadium in Louisville.

Kentucky (8-5, 6-5-1 ATS) started off last season with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), including a last-minute 40-34 upset victory over the Cardinals as a 4½-point home ‘dog in Week 3. However, after the hot start, the Wildcats dropped five of their next seven games both SU and ATS before beating Florida State 35-28 in the Music City Bowl, pushing as a seven-point chalk.

Louisville (6-6, 4-7 ATS) saw its season spiral downward after the loss to Kentucky, and the Cardinals missed out on a bowl game for the first time this decade.

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, and despite last year’s loss, Louisville is 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the last nine. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Kentucky lost a slew of offensive weapons from last year’s explosive team that averaged 35 points and nearly 450 yards per game, including QB Andre Woodson, leading rusher Rafael Little and top wideouts Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson. Sophomore Mike Hartline was handed the starting QB job when senior Curtis Pulley was removed from the team at the start of preseason practice. Defense will be essential for Kentucky, as the Wildcats have five all-SEC candidates among seven returning starters, including DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was fourth in the SEC in sacks a season ago.

Louisville lost QB Brian Brohm, who led an offense that averaged 32 points and almost 500 yards per game in 2007, but the Cardinals have experience under center in Hunter Cantwell who has thrown for 1,419 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs as a three-year backup. He has started four games in his career, going 3-1. Also, RB Brock Bolen is back after running for 456 yards and seven TDs last year.

Like Kentucky, Louisville had a shaky defense last season, allowing more than 31 points a game, but there are eight starters returning to that unit.

The under is 5-2 in the last seven Governor’s Cups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE


Colorado vs. Colorado State, at Denver

The Buffaloes and Rams converge on Invesco Field in Denver in this annual in-state rivalry, which has been decided by seven points or less each of the last six years.

Colorado got a 31-28 overtime victory in this showdown last season, covering as a 2½-point favorite, but otherwise the underdog has dominated this rivalry, cashing in five straight meetings and eight of the last 10 before last year’s contest. Finally, Colorado State is 6-3 ATS in the last nine clashes.

The Buffs (6-7 SU and ATS) were inconsistent last season under then second-year coach Dan Hawkins, struggling down the stretch in going 2-5 SU and ATS in the final seven, including a 30-24 loss to Alabama in the Independence Bowl. On the bright side last year, Colorado went 4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk.

Hawkins’ son Cody started last season as a redshirt freshman and threw for 2,693 yards with 22 total TDs (19 passing). On the defensive side, Colorado has the Big 12’s leading tackler back in LB Jeff Smart, who made 162 stops a season ago.

For the Rams, first-year coach Steve Fairchild has some big shoes to fill, replacing legend Sonny Lubick, who was on the Colorado State sidelines for 15 years. However, Colorado State (3-9, 5-6 ATS in 2007) struggled in Lubick’s last four seasons, going just 17-30 after winning six conference crowns in a nine-year span that ended in 2002.

The Rams lost their first six games (1-5 ATS) of 2007, running their losing streak to 13 before getting a 48-23 win at UNLV in Week 7. They finished the year 4-1 ATS, including back-to-back outright wins over Georgia Southern (42-34 in a non-lined game) and Wyoming (36-28 as 3½-point favorites) to close out the Lubick era.

Colorado State has experience at RB in Kyle Bell, who led the Mountain West Conference in rushing in 2005 with 1,288 yards before missing a season with a knee injury. However, the Rams struggled on defense a season ago, allowing 30.8 points and 415.2 yards per game.

The over is 10-4 in the Rams’ last 14 against Big 12 opposition and 7-2-1 in their last 10 against non-conference foes. The over is also 9-3 in Colorado’s last 12 against Mountain West competition. Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

LT Profits
2* Kentucky vs Louisville UNDER 57.0


FairWay Jay
3* Colorado -10.5
3* Colorado vs Colorado State UNDER 57.0

Bob Akmens
4* Louisville -3.5

Alex Smart
3* Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Saskatchewan Roughriders OVER 49.5

vegas sports experts? they are 3-0 this year. They got a strong parlay for Sun!

Someone wrote to me yesterday in the Service thread that I should be tracking more touts now that CFB has started. I am more than willing to track other touts but I cannot track them all. What I am trying to do is track that ones that usually get posted everyday or that many people ask for. I also said before that if there are any touts someone thinks I should be tracking that I am not, please let me know and I will start tracking them. Thanks!


Here are updated results as of Saturday Night:

JeffersonSports - 44.5%

Winners Inc - 57%

The Hitman - 30%

Millionaires Club - 80% (They actually lost a game yesterday!)

Wayne Allen Root - 65.5%

Big Al - 39%

Investments Playmakers - 56%

Seabass - 45%

Wizard of Odds - 71% (They seem to be doing well but they get posted only every couple of days and so far I have 7 games total that I have tracked for them so the sample size is very small but 71% is still very good)

As I promised yesterday here I am with the Soccer Plays for today:

Victorious Play:

2* Bursaspor 0 & -0.5 (Turkish)
2* AZ Alkmaar -0.5 & -1 (Dutch)
2* Bayern Munich Over 2.5 & 3 (German Bundesliga)

Yesterday 2-0-1 in Soccer and 3-0-0 in Baseball.

While these guys are hot have no need to try something else!!!

BOL to you all!!!

THE GOLD SHEET

SUNDAY, AUGUST 31

Kentucky 27 - LOUISVILLE 26--Previously high-flying L'ville took a serious tumble LY (worst mark since '97) under new HC Steve Kragthorpe. And since there are still major concerns on a revamped Card defense (33 ppg) that gave up a plethora of big plays year ago, prefer to "take" with ascending rival Kentucky, even without record-breaking QB Andre Woodson. After all, Wildcats new QB Hartline, who'll benefit from a talented trio of RBs (Allen, Dixon & Locke), can work play-action vs. yielding L'Ville 2ndary (25 TDP, just 7 ints.). And with UK mentor Brooks thrilled with his added depth and speed on the DL and in 2ndary, Card QB Cantwell won't have field day, especially with WRing corps (see Ticker) suffering some attrition. CABLE TV--ESPN

(07-KY. 40-Lvl. 34...K.27-26 K.35/185 L.27/101 L.28/43/1/366 K.30/46/0/275 K.0 L.1)

(07-KY. +5 40-34 06-LVL. -22' 59-27 05-Lvl. -22 31-24...SR: Kentucky 11-9)

*Colorado 30 - Colorado State 13--Former Colorado State QB and assistant Steve Fairchild takes over for Sonny Lubick, who guided the Rams to uncharted heights during his 15 years as HC. But Lubick's program lost some steam the last two seasons, going 4-8 and then 3-9. It must be noted that this rivalry has been one of the more tightly contested in recent years, with 7 of the last 8 meetings decided by 7 points or fewer. In 2008, however, Colorado--in its third season under Dan Hawkins--appears to be on the rise. Hawkins has been landing some prime-time recruits (frosh RB Darrell Scott turned down Texas), and son soph QB Cody can be counted upon to improve. Meanwhile, the CSU QB situation is uproven, and the Ram RBs, while tough, lack speed. (at Denver, CO)

(07-Colo. 31-Csu 28 (OT)...S.25-18 S.56/157 U.28/129 S.20/27/1/229 U.18/32/1/201 U.2 S.0)

(07-Col. -2' 31-28 (OT) at Den. 06-Csu -2 14-10 at Den. 05-COLO. -7 31-28...SR: Colo. 58-19-2)

POWER PLAYS

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4★ COLORADO 35 COLORADO ST 18

This is the 9th meeting in Denver between these 2 rivals (series tied 4-4). The last 6 meetings
have been decided by a combined 25 pts (none by more than a TD). The dog has dropped 2
straight but was 9-1 ATS prior to that. PP calls for CU to win by 17 (line 11?) with a 463-287 yd
edge. Tough to go against the dog (especially with DD) in this close series, but this year may
be the exception.
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