Daily Notes for Monday

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Daily Notes for Monday: Sheets takes on Santana

By Adam Madison
Special to ESPN.com
(Archive)

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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> August 31, 2008, 2:44 PM
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Ben Sheets and Johan Santana have been victims of poor run support for much of the season, and there's a high chance of another hard-luck loser as the two aces face off in a game with playoff implications. Randy Johnson carries a 1.82 ERA in his past eight starts into a matchup with the Cardinals, and Cliff Lee attempts to become the first 20-game winner in the major leagues as he continues his Cy Young-quality campaign.
Matchups for Monday, Sept. 1


Injury report
Out
Scott Hairston, OF, Padres (thumb)
Melvin Mora, 3B, Orioles (hamstring)
Yorvit Torrealba, C, Rockies (knee)

Day-to-day
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox (flu)
Ray Durham, 2B, Brewers (shoulder)
Jody Gerut, OF, Padres (finger)
Kevin Gregg, RP, Marlins (knee)
Carlos Guillen, 1B/SS/3B, Tigers (back)
Travis Hafner, DH, Indians (shoulder)
Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers (knee)
David Murphy, OF, Rangers (knee)

Start 'em, sit 'em
Hitters: Left-handed hitters are batting a scorching .344 against Sidney Ponson, so don't be surprised if Curtis Granderson has a big day. Also check to see if Carlos Guillen, who has missed the last four games, will return, and you can assume Marcus Thames will be benched for the left-handed Matt Joyce. ... Carlos Delgado has performed like his old self since the All-Star break (13 home runs in 150 at-bats), but you'll want to sit him against Ben Sheets: he's 2-for-12 against Ben Sheets, with six strikeouts. ... Jimmy Rollins has 13 hits in his past 25 at-bats, with four extra-base hits and six steals. Although he has largely disappointed this season, Rollins' career .832 OPS in September is 50 points higher than his career OPS in any other month. ... Aaron Rowand has little value when not facing left-handers, but with Jorge De La Rosa and the Rockies on the schedule Monday, he's worth a start. He's hitting .339 with eight home runs in 121 at-bats against southpaws this season. ... It seems David Murphy had a setback in his rehab from a knee injury and won't come off the disabled list Monday, as expected. It's a situation worth watching, but at the same time, if you need the roster space, don't hesitate to make a move.
Pitchers: Since logging eight straight starts, from June 11 to July 20, in which he allowed two runs or less, Justin Verlander has allowed five runs or more in five of his past seven starts. The Yankees offense finished in the top 10 in OPS in August, so keep Verlander reserved. ... You won't want to use Jonathan Sanchez in his return from the disabled list: the Rockies' .829 team OPS against left-handers is tops in the league, and, unsurprisingly, Sanchez has a 7.15 ERA and 2.03 WHIP in two starts at Coors Field this season. ... Since allowing four runs to the Mets in six innings on Aug. 2, Roy Oswalt has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last five starts and come away with a 1.94 ERA in that span. The Cubs will be the best offense he's faced in two months, though, and at this stage of the season, it's best to mitigate your risks.
Waiver-Wire pickups

<table class="answerguys" align="right" border="0" width="325"><tbody><tr><td align="center">
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</td></tr> <tr><td align="center">It's Fantasy Football season on ESPN.com! Activate last year's league, create or join a new league today and start your run to fantasy glory.
Sign Up Today!</td></tr></tbody></table> Hitters: Clint Barmes is seemingly entrenched as the Rockies' second baseman despite a couple of unproductive months, but at least he's consistent: great in Coors (.349 average, five of his six home runs) and an offensive black hole on the road (.250 BA/.279 OBP/.335 SLG). The Rockies play their next six games at home, and 15 of their next 18, so squeeze value out of Barmes while you can. ... Shin-Soo Choo is quietly hitting .309 in August, with ten doubles, one triple and four home runs, and since the All-Star break has 21 extra-base hits in 121 at-bats. He has a five-game hitting streak, with five extra-base hits (two home runs) and two walks, and it looks like he'll have some value in the final month of the season. Pitchers: Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Josh Johnson's peripherals are in line with the numbers he posted in his 2006 breakout season. He's especially stepped it up in his past four starts, averaging seven innings and nearly a strikeout per. A high-strikeout 24-year-old in a home park favorable for pitchers sounds like a no-brainer add, and Johnson should continue his recent success Monday when he faces the Braves. ... Matt Lindstrom, the presupposed closer of the future for the Marlins, seems to be first in line for saves while Kevin Gregg deals with a bothersome knee injury. Lindstrom did earn the win Saturday, entering a tie game in the ninth and getting two outs, so it looks like he can be picked up if you're scrounging for saves.
Weather concerns
Two games are weatherproof: Mets-Brewers and Cardinals-Diamondbacks. Braves-Marlins has the best chance of rain, with a 40 to 50 percent chance. Giants-Rockies has a fair chance of precipitation too, with a 30 percent chance of storms.
Adam Madison is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com
 

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Samardzija fitting in nicely with Cubs

Special to ESPN.com



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<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Updated: September 1, 2008
<!-- end page tools --><!-- begin story body --> <!-- template inline -->Editor's note: Inside Edge is a professional scouting service that supplies reports and tools regularly used by major league teams. The following look ahead is based on its scouting data.
THREE THINGS TO WATCH: MONDAY

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Samardzija

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 1. Samardzija tackles hitters in first taste of big leagues

Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija has been something of an enigma during his professional baseball career. A football star at Notre Dame, Samardzija was selected in the fifth round of the 2006 MLB draft and was given a hefty $10 million contract to forget about football. The 6-foot-5, 220-pound righty produced mixed results in the minors, with 5.26 strikeouts per nine innings and a middling 4.45 ERA. But Samardzija did produce better results as he climbed the minor league ladder and the scouting reports have been glowing since his big league call-up in late July. Samardzija has fit in nicely with Chicago's other power arms in the bullpen, whiffing 19 batters in 19 1/3 innings while posting a 0.93 ERA. Overall, opponents are hitting just .188 against Samardzija. He has shown a reverse platoon split in the early going, retiring left-handed hitters more easily (.069 BAA) than right-handers (.275 BAA). Samardzija's success against lefties stems from his changeup and splitter, two pitches commonly used to combat opposite-handed hitters. Left-handers are 1-for-15 against his change and split; overall, hitters are 1-for-28 against his off-speed pitches. While Samardzija's secondary offerings have been surprisingly effective, his fastball could use some work. At an average speed of 94 mph, Samardzija's heater has plenty of zip. However, opponents have handled the pitch, making hard, frequent contact while finding his out-of-zone heaters easy to lay off of: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Samardzija's fastball </td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>
</td> <td>Well-hit avg.</td> <td>Chase pct.</td> <td>Miss pct. of swings</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Samardzija</td> <td>.390</td> <td>8.2</td> <td>8.8</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>MLB avg.</td> <td>.254</td> <td>18.4</td> <td>14.1</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Samardzija has been reluctant to bust hitters in on the hands; 57 percent of his fastballs have been located away, compared to just 28 percent inside. The 23-year-old has actually fared better when throwing inside, with a .250 well-hit average on inside fastballs, compared to a .385 well-hit average on fastballs located away. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Johnson

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 2. Big Unit regains his old form

Veteran lefty Randy Johnson has not had a bad outing in two months, and has performed more like he did in 2004 when he was the NL Cy Young Award runner-up than a guy who is two weeks shy of his 45th birthday. The Unit has done his usual superb job of working ahead in the count and striking out batters all season, but he has improved in several key areas over his past 10 starts. Johnson is keeping the top of the order off base, denying extra bases to middle-order hitters, throwing more strikes with his heater, finishing off hitters after he gets ahead in the count and taking fewer batters to three-ball counts. As the table shows, his recent performance compares favorably to the Johnson of old rather than an old Johnson: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="4">Johnson comparison: 2008 vs. 2004</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Key stat</td> <td>First 15</td> <td>Past 10</td> <td>2004</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>SLG -- batters 4-5</td> <td>.475</td> <td>.282</td> <td>.279</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Strike pct. of fastballs</td> <td>57.4</td> <td>66.7</td> <td>68.8</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>BAA -- pitcher's counts</td> <td>.223</td> <td>.177</td> <td>.164</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Pct. of PA reaching three-ball count</td> <td>17.6</td> <td>9.2</td> <td>11.8</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Johnson started the season with a 4-7 record and 5.46 ERA in his first 15 starts. Since July 6, he's gone 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA. He has located 82 percent of fastballs on the corners all season, but has improved his command to both sides of the plate: <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Johnson's fastball strike pct.</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Location</td> <td>First 15</td> <td>Past 10</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Away</td> <td>53.8</td> <td>57.3</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Inside</td> <td>53.4</td> <td>69.1</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> His catcher may be a factor in Johnson's fastball command. Johnson took six straight losses in June and July with Miguel Montero behind the plate, and then went 6-2 with the combination of Chris Snyder and Robby Hammock. Montero caught Johnson's two most recent starts, which were both no-decisions. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Johnson's fastball strike pct. by catcher</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Catcher</td> <td>Strike pct.</td> <td>Starts</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Snyder</td> <td>65.7</td> <td>7</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Hammock</td> <td>59.6</td> <td>3</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Montero</td> <td>59.3</td> <td>15</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- end table --> Johnson faces the Cardinals on Monday. Albert Pujols is a career 7-for-17 against Johnson, but it has been more than three years since their last matchup. <!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (BEGIN) -->
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Redding

<!-- INLINE HEADSHOT (END) --> 3. Redding no pushover against Phils

After scrapping with the first-place Mets and Cubs over the past six days, the Phillies catch what seems like a schedule break with a three-game set against the Nationals. Not so fast, though. The Nats on Monday will start Tim Redding, who has multiple wins against only two teams over the past two seasons -- one of them being the Philadelphia Phillies. Redding has three wins (his highest against any opponent) and a 3.07 ERA against the Phillies since 2007. There's a reason Redding has fared well against the potent Phillies lineup; he owns a couple of their top hitters. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard are a combined 7-for-48 (.146 BA) lifetime and just 5-for-39 (.128 BA) against Redding since last year. <!-- begin table --> <table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="400"><tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(0, 0, 0) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;"> <td colspan="3">Redding vs. Phillies</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Phillies Hitter</td> <td>Career vs. Redding</td> <td>Redding's approach</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Jimmy Rollins</td> <td>5-for-30 with seven strikeouts</td> <td>Rollins will see a first-pitch fastball from Redding (87 percent of first pitches have been fastballs). Redding has done a nice job of mixing the locations of those first-pitch heaters and getting ahead (65 percent for strikes). Once ahead, Redding has used the slider more often (24 percent of pitches), but still tends to put Rollins away with his fastball (0-for-6 in at-bats ending with a fastball on pitchers' counts, and 0-for-10 overall in these counts).</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Ryan Howard</td> <td>2-for-18 with eight strikeouts</td> <td>Redding knows the scouting report on Howard, and shows it by offering him a fastball just 44 percent of the time. Watch for Redding to work backward to Howard -- he has started him with a fastball just five times in 20 plate appearances, but then comes right after the fastball-hitting first baseman with the heat on two-strike counts (12 fastballs, nine off-speed pitches). Howard is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against Redding's two-strike fastballs.</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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